Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 041654
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1154 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2010
   
   VALID 041700Z - 051200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR S-CNTRL ID...NERN NV...
   
   ...S-CNTRL ID...NERN NV...
   NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
   
   ...SERN ID...SRN WY...
   NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
   
   ...MID-ATLANTIC REGION /NJ INTO VA/...
   MID-MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS GUIDANCE
   SHOW AN AXIS OF RH VALUES AROUND 30-35 PERCENT RESIDING FROM NJ
   S-SWWD ACROSS THE DC METRO AREA INTO CNTRL VA...AND MODEL
   GUIDANCE/MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VALUES WILL LIKELY
   FALL INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. PEAK WIND SPEEDS DURING THE
   PERIOD OF LOWEST RH ARE EXPECTED TO RESIDE NEAR 20 MPH OVER
   VA...WITH 20-25 MPH OCCASIONALLY EXPERIENCED OVER NJ...WHICH WILL
   SUPPORT LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...CAROLINAS AND NRN/CNTRL GA...
   POST FRONTAL OFFSHORE FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
   INTO GA TODAY. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF VERY DRY AIR /PWAT VALUES AOB
   0.60 INCHES PER GPS TPW GUIDANCE AND BNA 12Z RAOB/ LOCATED UPSTREAM
   FROM THE REGION...MIN RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT APPEAR PROBABLE /AS
   INDICATED BY LATEST 12Z NAM MODEL OUTPUT/. HOWEVER...STRONGER
   LOW/MID-LEVEL WLY/S WILL BE LOCATED N OF THE REGION...WHICH WILL
   RESULT IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AOB 10 MPH /WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
   MPH/. THEREFORE...A CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA WILL NOT BE ASSIGNED.
   
   ...E-CNTRL NV...W-CNTRLY/SWRN UT...
   NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
   
   ...LEE OF THE NRN SIERRAS IN FAR NERN CA/NWRN NV...
   NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
   
   ..GARNER.. 09/04/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0228 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE
   PACIFIC NW THROUGH EARLY SUN...AS A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE MOVES FROM THE
   NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS. A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE JUST OFF THE
   SWRN ORE COAST WILL PROGRESS INLAND REACHING THE NRN GREAT BASIN
   THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE EAST...SEVERAL IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN A
   LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
   WILL EJECT ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.
   
   ...S-CNTRL ID...NERN NV...
   THE APPROACH OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OFF THE SWRN ORE COAST AND
   ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX WILL BE FAVORABLY TIMED WITH THE DIURNAL
   HEATING CYCLE AND SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF LOW-END CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS. DEEP VERTICAL MIXING WILL PROMOTE SUSTAINED SURFACE
   WINDS NEAR 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH...AS RH VALUES BECOME
   LOW /BETWEEN 6 AND 12 PERCENT/.
   
   ...SERN ID...SRN WY...
   EAST OF THE CRITICAL AREA IN S-CNTRL ID...SIMILAR METEOROLOGICAL
   CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS SERN ID INTO SWRN WY.
   HOWEVER...ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THE PAST WEEK SHOULD HELP
   MARGINALIZE THE OVERALL THREAT. ACROSS SERN WY...RECENT RAINFALL HAS
   BEEN LACKING...BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY MORE MODERATE
   /AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH/ AND THIS WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL AREA
   DELINEATION ATTM.
   
   ...PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NC...
   MARGINAL TO LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS
   AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE FRI INTO EARLY
   SAT. WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONG OVER THE UPPER
   MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST AND PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN WITH SRN EXTENT
   WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE RELAXED. SUSTAINED
   SURFACE WINDS SHOULD RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 MPH N TO BETWEEN 10 TO 15
   MPH S. MEANWHILE...WARM/DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER NC/SRN
   VA...WHERE RH VALUES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S. PROGRESSIVELY
   COOLER/MORE MOIST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH NWD EXTENT...WITH RH
   VALUES LARGELY IN THE 30S. THE RELATIVELY GREATEST THREAT SHOULD
   EXIST OVER PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL VA WHERE MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
   PERSISTS.
   
   ...E-CNTRL NV...W-CNTRL/SWRN UT...
   ALTHOUGH THIS REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER
   MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSE OFF THE SWRN ORE
   COAST...DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED SURFACE
   WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. THIS WILL BE
   JUXTAPOSED WITH VERY LOW RH VALUES OF 4 TO 8 PERCENT AND SHOULD
   RESULT IN AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...LEE OF THE NRN SIERRAS IN FAR NERN CA/NWRN NV...
   LOCALIZED MARGINAL CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON ALONG THE LEE OF THE NRN SIERRAS. ALTHOUGH THE MAGNITUDE
   OF MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CRITICAL
   AREA...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE DEPTH
   OF VERTICAL MIXING WILL REMAIN LOWER. THIS SHOULD HELP HOLD
   SUSTAINED SURFACE SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 MPH...AS
   RH VALUES FALL TO BETWEEN 5 TO 10 PERCENT.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 041659
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1159 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2010
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE
   CNTRL ROCKIES...
   
   ...MOST OF THE ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES...
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A STRONG UPPER JET
   STREAK /100-120 KT AT 250 MB/ MOVING ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN
   DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
   WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS /SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
   AOA 25 MPH FOR MANY LOCATIONS WITH RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT/
   ACROSS MOST OF THE ERN GREAT BASIN INTO PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
   ROCKIES. STRONG POST FRONTAL SURFACE WIND SPEEDS /20-30 MPH/ ARE
   ALSO INDICATED OVER S-CNTRL/SERN ID INTO PORTIONS OF NWRN UT AND
   NERN NV...WHICH WILL SUPPORT CRITICAL CONDITIONS AS WELL...DESPITE
   THE PRESENCE OF SLIGHTLY MORE MARGINAL RH VALUES.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...SWRN KS...NWRN OK...
   LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL AID IN THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF A 30-40 KT S-SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE MID TO
   LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE A HOT/STEEP LAPSE RATE AIR MASS SPREADS EWD
   ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS. THOUGH A ZONE OF CRITICALLY
   LOW RH SHOULD BE FAVORABLY JUXTAPOSED WITH CRITICALLY STRONG WIND
   SPEEDS DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON WHERE A
   LOW-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SET UP /WHICH WILL INFLUENCE WHERE THE
   LOW RH/STRONG WIND OVERLAP WILL BE LOCATED/. THEREFORE...WILL WAIT
   TO ISSUE A CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA UNTIL GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THIS
   SCENARIO DEVELOPS.
   
   ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA...
   NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
   
   ...SRN CA DESERTS...
   NEAR TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE DESERTS OF SRN CA AS
   ONSHORE FLOW REGIME STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING PRESSURE
   GRADIENT...LEADING TO SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 MPH OCCURRING IN
   THE MIDST OF RH VALUES NEAR 5 PERCENT.
   
   ...MID-ATLANTIC REGION /NJ INTO NRN-ERN VA/...
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AFTERNOON RH VALUES MAY BRIEFLY DROP
   BELOW 30 PERCENT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 10 MPH...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A MORE
   SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ..GARNER.. 09/04/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0458 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS THE
   NWRN CONUS AND PROGRESS EWD TOWARDS THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES THROUGH
   EARLY MON. MID-LEVEL WLYS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH A BELT OF 50 TO 70
   MPH FLOW AT 500 MB CENTERED ACROSS NRN NV/SRN ID INTO WY ON SUN
   AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SWD
   THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TIGHT THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS
   DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE.
   
   ...MOST OF THE ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES...
   WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SUN AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
   A SHARP COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN AZ...SRN/ERN UT...NRN/WRN CO AND
   CNTRL/SRN WY. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30
   MPH...WITH WIND GUSTS LOCALLY REACHING 40 TO 50 MPH OVER PORTIONS OF
   SRN WY/NWRN CO. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH AN ANTECEDENT VERY WARM/DRY
   AIR MASS /RH VALUES OF 5 TO 15 PERCENT/.
   
   THE CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN EXTENDED FARTHER NW INTO NERN NV/NWRN
   UT/SERN ID. HERE...STRONG SURFACE WINDS /FROM 20 TO 30 MPH/ DURING
   THE AFTERNOON WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS THE POST-FRONTAL
   PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. DESPITE COOLING TEMPERATURES WITH
   WINDS VEERING TO THE N/NW...CONSENSUS OF MODEL FORECASTS SUGGESTS RH
   RECOVERY WILL INITIALLY BE POOR DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS GUSTS
   AOA 30 MPH CONTINUE. ALTHOUGH MIN RH VALUES MAY BE MARGINAL /AROUND
   15 PERCENT/...THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF WINDS WARRANT A CRITICAL
   DELINEATION.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...SWRN KS...NWRN OK...
   MARGINAL TO LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AROUND PEAK
   HEATING ON SUN. THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SLYS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE
   CONFINED E OF A DRYLINE MIXING ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...WHERE
   RH VALUES WILL BE INCREASINGLY MARGINAL WITH ERN EXTENT.
   HOWEVER...AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES INVOF NERN CO...A TIGHTENING
   SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT W OF THE DRYLINE WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
   TX/OX PANHANDLES DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED SURFACE
   WINDS SHOULD REACH 15 TO 20 MPH WITH RH VALUES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT.
   
   ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA...
   A HIGHLY LOCALIZED ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP LATE
   SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTY NLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS
   LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN SUBSTANTIALLY WITH A RIDGE
   BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME
   MODERATE...REACHING 15 MPH. THIS WOULD BE INITIALLY JUXTAPOSED WITH
   LOW RH VALUES OF 6 TO 12 PERCENT...AND POOR RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED
   THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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