Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 051635
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1135 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010
   
   VALID 051700Z - 061200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN
   TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX AND OK
   PANHANDLES/NWRN OK/SWRN KS...
   
   ...MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES...
   NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA.
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OBSERVED IN WV IMAGERY IS MOVING SWD ACROSS
   OREGON THIS MORNING...AND IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE NRN
   GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG DEEP
   LAYER W-SWLY WIND FIELDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION...WITH SURFACE
   WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 20-30 MPH. IN ADDITION...12Z RAOBS ACROSS
   THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA SUPPORT AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE 5-15
   PERCENT RANGE.
   
   OVER NERN NV/NWRN UT/SRN ID...POST FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
   STILL ADVERTISED BY MODEL GUIDANCE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL SUPPORT CRITICALLY STRONG WIND
   SPEEDS AND THE ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH RH
   VALUES FALLING TOWARD 15 PERCENT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX AND OK PANHANDLES/NWRN OK/SWRN KS...
   THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
   IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER
   DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS TRAILING
   S-SWWD ACROSS WRN KS AND INTO THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. THE 12Z AMA
   AND DDC RAOBS MODIFIED FOR AFTERNOON CONDITIONS SUPPORT CRITICALLY
   LOW RH VALUES /AOB 20 PERCENT/...AND S-SWLY WIND SPEEDS WILL
   INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH /WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-40 MPH/ ALONG AND E
   OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
   
   ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA...
   NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
   
   ...SRN CA DESERTS...
   NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
   
   ...NJ/SERN PA...
   NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
   
   ..GARNER.. 09/05/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0320 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL PROGRESS
   E/SEWD TOWARDS THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY MON. A BELT OF
   STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS /FROM 50 TO 70 MPH AT 500 MB/ WILL BECOME
   CENTERED ACROSS NRN NV/SRN ID INTO WY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE
   SURFACE...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
   DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH TIGHT THERMAL AND PRESSURE
   GRADIENTS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...LEE
   CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR INVOF NERN CO WITH A DRYLINE MIXING EWD
   ACROSS WRN KS/OK/TX.
   
   ...MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES...
   WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   EARLY EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE ERN GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE CNTRL
   ROCKIES AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED SURFACE W/SWLYS WILL
   INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH AREAS OF WIND GUSTS AOA 40 MPH FROM
   SRN UT INTO SRN WY. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL COINCIDE WITH AN
   ANTECEDENT VERY WARM/DRY AIR MASS /RH VALUES OF 5 TO 15 PERCENT/.
   
   FARTHER NW ACROSS NERN NV/NWRN UT/SRN ID...STRONG SURFACE WINDS
   /FROM 20 TO 30 MPH/ WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS THE
   POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. DESPITE COOLING
   TEMPERATURES WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE N/NW AND MARGINAL AFTERNOON
   RH VALUES /AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT/...CONSENSUS OF MODEL FORECASTS
   SUGGESTS RH RECOVERY WILL INITIALLY BE POOR DURING THE EARLY EVENING
   AS GUSTS AOA 30 MPH CONTINUE.
   
   ...A SMALL PORTION OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK/SWRN KS...
   LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL AID IN THE
   MAINTENANCE OF A 35 TO 45 MPH S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON FROM WRN OK TO THE MID-MO VALLEY. AS A HOT/STEEP
   LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE TX/OK
   PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF JUXTAPOSITION WITH THE
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD OCCUR. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
   SUFFICIENTLY TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO EXPERIENCE 20
   TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AND RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 20
   PERCENT...WHERE RECENT RAINFALL HAS BEEN LACKING.
   
   ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA...
   A HIGHLY LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
   LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH A RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO
   THE PACIFIC NW. AREAS OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MODERATE
   /AROUND 15 MPH/ WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. THIS WOULD BE
   INITIALLY JUXTAPOSED WITH LOW RH VALUES OF 6 TO 12 PERCENT...AND
   POOR RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
   
   ...SRN CA DESERTS...
   A RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF MARGINAL TO LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING. AS WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
   PRESSURE GRADIENT...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD APPROACH 20 MPH
   FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MIDST OF RH VALUES OF 4 TO 8 PERCENT.
   
   ...NJ/SERN PA...
   LOW-LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE SURFACE RH VALUES AGAIN FALLING TO
   AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS FLOW WILL BE
   SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER COMPARED TO SAT AND SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED
   WIND SPEEDS LARGELY REMAINING AOB 10 MPH.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 051642
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1142 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO E/SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE CRITICALLY STRONG
   SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY BRIEFLY OVERLAP RH VALUES AOB 20 PERCENT
   ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS DURING EARLY TO MID
   MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING BY LATE AFTERNOON. DUE TO
   UNCERTAINTY IN THE DURATION OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS...AN OUTLOOK AREA
   WILL NOT BE ISSUED ATTM.
   
   ...SERN MO...NERN AR...FAR WRN TN SRN IL/IND AND WRN KY...
   AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECT
   ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS ON MONDAY...SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST
   TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION. THE STRONGEST SPEEDS
   /AROUND 15 MPH/ ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER SERN MO AND
   SRN IL/IND. MEANWHILE...VERY DRY AIR CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS THE
   REGION /PER GPS TPW GUIDANCE...WITH PWAT VALUES AOB 0.50
   INCHES/...AND IS FORECAST TO MODIFY VERY LITTLE BY MONDAY.
   THUS...MIN RH VALUES FORECAST BY THE NAM IN THE 20S TO PERHAPS UPPER
   TEENS APPEARS PLAUSIBLE AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE
   80S F...AND WILL SUPPORT NEAR TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
   
   ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA...
   NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
   
   ..GARNER.. 09/05/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0447 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE
   NRN HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH
   EARLY TUE. ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE
   NEWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD ACROSS
   THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES BY MON EVENING.
   FARTHER WEST...AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ALONG THE
   BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NW COAST.
   
   ...SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO E/SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH BOTH THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
   JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONG WINDS WITH LOW RH ON MON...DEFERRING ANY
   CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION TO LATER OUTLOOKS. A SURGE OF STRONG
   LOW-LEVEL N/NWLYS SHOULD ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON
   MORNING...WITH WINDS WEAKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS RIDGING
   QUICKLY BUILDS ALONG THE LEE OF THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. DURATION OF
   STRONG WINDS APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A CRITICAL AREA...WHERE
   DRYING SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG THE LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE.
   FARTHER EAST INTO WRN NEB/KS...LONGER DURATIONS OF STRONG WINDS
   APPEAR MORE LIKELY BUT WITH INCREASINGLY MARGINAL RH VALUES.
   
   ...SERN MO...NERN AR...FAR WRN TN NEWD ALONG THE LOWER OH VALLEY...
   AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP MON AFTERNOON AS SLY
   SURFACE WINDS INCREASE WITHIN AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE
   LOWER MS/OH VALLEY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE HIGHLY CONSISTENT THAT
   TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH RH VALUES
   DROPPING TO BETWEEN 18 AND 25 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL
   WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN...THE REGION OF LOW RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN TO
   THE E/SE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW CENTERED OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY.
   SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MODERATE /NEAR 15 MPH/. GIVEN
   MODERATE DROUGHT AND RECENT BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL OVER MOST OF THE
   REGION...A CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF
   STRONGER WINDS ARE APPARENT IN LATER FORECASTS.
   
   ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA...
   AREAS OF POOR RH RECOVERY MAY BE ONGOING EARLY MON GIVEN THE
   PRESENCE OF LOCALLY GUSTY NLY WINDS. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS WILL
   DIMINISH AS THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES DURING THE LATE
   MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS
   LOW-LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW WITH APPROACH OF
   AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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