Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
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FNUS21 KWNS 051635
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010
VALID 051700Z - 061200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN
TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX AND OK
PANHANDLES/NWRN OK/SWRN KS...
...MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OBSERVED IN WV IMAGERY IS MOVING SWD ACROSS
OREGON THIS MORNING...AND IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE NRN
GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG DEEP
LAYER W-SWLY WIND FIELDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION...WITH SURFACE
WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 20-30 MPH. IN ADDITION...12Z RAOBS ACROSS
THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA SUPPORT AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE 5-15
PERCENT RANGE.
OVER NERN NV/NWRN UT/SRN ID...POST FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
STILL ADVERTISED BY MODEL GUIDANCE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL SUPPORT CRITICALLY STRONG WIND
SPEEDS AND THE ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH RH
VALUES FALLING TOWARD 15 PERCENT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
...PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX AND OK PANHANDLES/NWRN OK/SWRN KS...
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS TRAILING
S-SWWD ACROSS WRN KS AND INTO THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. THE 12Z AMA
AND DDC RAOBS MODIFIED FOR AFTERNOON CONDITIONS SUPPORT CRITICALLY
LOW RH VALUES /AOB 20 PERCENT/...AND S-SWLY WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH /WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-40 MPH/ ALONG AND E
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
...SRN CA DESERTS...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
...NJ/SERN PA...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
..GARNER.. 09/05/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0320 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL PROGRESS
E/SEWD TOWARDS THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY MON. A BELT OF
STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS /FROM 50 TO 70 MPH AT 500 MB/ WILL BECOME
CENTERED ACROSS NRN NV/SRN ID INTO WY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE
SURFACE...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH TIGHT THERMAL AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR INVOF NERN CO WITH A DRYLINE MIXING EWD
ACROSS WRN KS/OK/TX.
...MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES...
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE ERN GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE CNTRL
ROCKIES AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED SURFACE W/SWLYS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH AREAS OF WIND GUSTS AOA 40 MPH FROM
SRN UT INTO SRN WY. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL COINCIDE WITH AN
ANTECEDENT VERY WARM/DRY AIR MASS /RH VALUES OF 5 TO 15 PERCENT/.
FARTHER NW ACROSS NERN NV/NWRN UT/SRN ID...STRONG SURFACE WINDS
/FROM 20 TO 30 MPH/ WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS THE
POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. DESPITE COOLING
TEMPERATURES WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE N/NW AND MARGINAL AFTERNOON
RH VALUES /AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT/...CONSENSUS OF MODEL FORECASTS
SUGGESTS RH RECOVERY WILL INITIALLY BE POOR DURING THE EARLY EVENING
AS GUSTS AOA 30 MPH CONTINUE.
...A SMALL PORTION OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK/SWRN KS...
LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL AID IN THE
MAINTENANCE OF A 35 TO 45 MPH S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FROM WRN OK TO THE MID-MO VALLEY. AS A HOT/STEEP
LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF JUXTAPOSITION WITH THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD OCCUR. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
SUFFICIENTLY TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO EXPERIENCE 20
TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AND RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 20
PERCENT...WHERE RECENT RAINFALL HAS BEEN LACKING.
...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA...
A HIGHLY LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH A RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO
THE PACIFIC NW. AREAS OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MODERATE
/AROUND 15 MPH/ WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. THIS WOULD BE
INITIALLY JUXTAPOSED WITH LOW RH VALUES OF 6 TO 12 PERCENT...AND
POOR RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
...SRN CA DESERTS...
A RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF MARGINAL TO LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. AS WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD APPROACH 20 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MIDST OF RH VALUES OF 4 TO 8 PERCENT.
...NJ/SERN PA...
LOW-LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE SURFACE RH VALUES AGAIN FALLING TO
AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS FLOW WILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER COMPARED TO SAT AND SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS LARGELY REMAINING AOB 10 MPH.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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FNUS22 KWNS 051642
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO E/SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE CRITICALLY STRONG
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY BRIEFLY OVERLAP RH VALUES AOB 20 PERCENT
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS DURING EARLY TO MID
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING BY LATE AFTERNOON. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DURATION OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS...AN OUTLOOK AREA
WILL NOT BE ISSUED ATTM.
...SERN MO...NERN AR...FAR WRN TN SRN IL/IND AND WRN KY...
AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECT
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS ON MONDAY...SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION. THE STRONGEST SPEEDS
/AROUND 15 MPH/ ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER SERN MO AND
SRN IL/IND. MEANWHILE...VERY DRY AIR CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS THE
REGION /PER GPS TPW GUIDANCE...WITH PWAT VALUES AOB 0.50
INCHES/...AND IS FORECAST TO MODIFY VERY LITTLE BY MONDAY.
THUS...MIN RH VALUES FORECAST BY THE NAM IN THE 20S TO PERHAPS UPPER
TEENS APPEARS PLAUSIBLE AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE
80S F...AND WILL SUPPORT NEAR TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
..GARNER.. 09/05/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0447 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH
EARLY TUE. ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE
NEWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD ACROSS
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES BY MON EVENING.
FARTHER WEST...AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ALONG THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NW COAST.
...SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO E/SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH BOTH THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONG WINDS WITH LOW RH ON MON...DEFERRING ANY
CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION TO LATER OUTLOOKS. A SURGE OF STRONG
LOW-LEVEL N/NWLYS SHOULD ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON
MORNING...WITH WINDS WEAKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS RIDGING
QUICKLY BUILDS ALONG THE LEE OF THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. DURATION OF
STRONG WINDS APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A CRITICAL AREA...WHERE
DRYING SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG THE LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE.
FARTHER EAST INTO WRN NEB/KS...LONGER DURATIONS OF STRONG WINDS
APPEAR MORE LIKELY BUT WITH INCREASINGLY MARGINAL RH VALUES.
...SERN MO...NERN AR...FAR WRN TN NEWD ALONG THE LOWER OH VALLEY...
AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP MON AFTERNOON AS SLY
SURFACE WINDS INCREASE WITHIN AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE
LOWER MS/OH VALLEY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE HIGHLY CONSISTENT THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO BETWEEN 18 AND 25 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN...THE REGION OF LOW RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN TO
THE E/SE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW CENTERED OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY.
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MODERATE /NEAR 15 MPH/. GIVEN
MODERATE DROUGHT AND RECENT BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...A CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF
STRONGER WINDS ARE APPARENT IN LATER FORECASTS.
...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA...
AREAS OF POOR RH RECOVERY MAY BE ONGOING EARLY MON GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF LOCALLY GUSTY NLY WINDS. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AS THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES DURING THE LATE
MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS
LOW-LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW WITH APPROACH OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...