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FNUS21 KWNS 050820
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN
TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE/NWRN OK/SWRN KS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL PROGRESS
E/SEWD TOWARDS THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY MON. A BELT OF
STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS /FROM 50 TO 70 MPH AT 500 MB/ WILL BECOME
CENTERED ACROSS NRN NV/SRN ID INTO WY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE
SURFACE...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH TIGHT THERMAL AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR INVOF NERN CO WITH A DRYLINE MIXING EWD
ACROSS WRN KS/OK/TX.
...MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES...
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE ERN GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE CNTRL
ROCKIES AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED SURFACE W/SWLYS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH AREAS OF WIND GUSTS AOA 40 MPH FROM
SRN UT INTO SRN WY. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL COINCIDE WITH AN
ANTECEDENT VERY WARM/DRY AIR MASS /RH VALUES OF 5 TO 15 PERCENT/.
FARTHER NW ACROSS NERN NV/NWRN UT/SRN ID...STRONG SURFACE WINDS
/FROM 20 TO 30 MPH/ WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS THE
POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. DESPITE COOLING
TEMPERATURES WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE N/NW AND MARGINAL AFTERNOON
RH VALUES /AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT/...CONSENSUS OF MODEL FORECASTS
SUGGESTS RH RECOVERY WILL INITIALLY BE POOR DURING THE EARLY EVENING
AS GUSTS AOA 30 MPH CONTINUE.
...A SMALL PORTION OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK/SWRN KS...
LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL AID IN THE
MAINTENANCE OF A 35 TO 45 MPH S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FROM WRN OK TO THE MID-MO VALLEY. AS A HOT/STEEP
LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF JUXTAPOSITION WITH THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD OCCUR. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
SUFFICIENTLY TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO EXPERIENCE 20
TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AND RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 20
PERCENT...WHERE RECENT RAINFALL HAS BEEN LACKING.
...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA...
A HIGHLY LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH A RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO
THE PACIFIC NW. AREAS OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MODERATE
/AROUND 15 MPH/ WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. THIS WOULD BE
INITIALLY JUXTAPOSED WITH LOW RH VALUES OF 6 TO 12 PERCENT...AND
POOR RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
...SRN CA DESERTS...
A RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF MARGINAL TO LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. AS WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD APPROACH 20 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MIDST OF RH VALUES OF 4 TO 8 PERCENT.
...NJ/SERN PA...
LOW-LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE SURFACE RH VALUES AGAIN FALLING TO
AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS FLOW WILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER COMPARED TO SAT AND SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS LARGELY REMAINING AOB 10 MPH.
..GRAMS.. 09/05/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...