Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 050820
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0320 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN
   TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE ERN TX
   PANHANDLE/NWRN OK/SWRN KS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL PROGRESS
   E/SEWD TOWARDS THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY MON. A BELT OF
   STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS /FROM 50 TO 70 MPH AT 500 MB/ WILL BECOME
   CENTERED ACROSS NRN NV/SRN ID INTO WY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE
   SURFACE...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
   DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH TIGHT THERMAL AND PRESSURE
   GRADIENTS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...LEE
   CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR INVOF NERN CO WITH A DRYLINE MIXING EWD
   ACROSS WRN KS/OK/TX.
   
   ...MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES...
   WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   EARLY EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE ERN GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE CNTRL
   ROCKIES AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED SURFACE W/SWLYS WILL
   INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH AREAS OF WIND GUSTS AOA 40 MPH FROM
   SRN UT INTO SRN WY. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL COINCIDE WITH AN
   ANTECEDENT VERY WARM/DRY AIR MASS /RH VALUES OF 5 TO 15 PERCENT/.
   
   FARTHER NW ACROSS NERN NV/NWRN UT/SRN ID...STRONG SURFACE WINDS
   /FROM 20 TO 30 MPH/ WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS THE
   POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. DESPITE COOLING
   TEMPERATURES WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE N/NW AND MARGINAL AFTERNOON
   RH VALUES /AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT/...CONSENSUS OF MODEL FORECASTS
   SUGGESTS RH RECOVERY WILL INITIALLY BE POOR DURING THE EARLY EVENING
   AS GUSTS AOA 30 MPH CONTINUE.
   
   ...A SMALL PORTION OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK/SWRN KS...
   LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL AID IN THE
   MAINTENANCE OF A 35 TO 45 MPH S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON FROM WRN OK TO THE MID-MO VALLEY. AS A HOT/STEEP
   LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE TX/OK
   PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF JUXTAPOSITION WITH THE
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD OCCUR. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
   SUFFICIENTLY TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO EXPERIENCE 20
   TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AND RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 20
   PERCENT...WHERE RECENT RAINFALL HAS BEEN LACKING.
   
   ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA...
   A HIGHLY LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
   LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH A RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO
   THE PACIFIC NW. AREAS OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MODERATE
   /AROUND 15 MPH/ WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. THIS WOULD BE
   INITIALLY JUXTAPOSED WITH LOW RH VALUES OF 6 TO 12 PERCENT...AND
   POOR RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
   
   ...SRN CA DESERTS...
   A RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF MARGINAL TO LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING. AS WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
   PRESSURE GRADIENT...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD APPROACH 20 MPH
   FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MIDST OF RH VALUES OF 4 TO 8 PERCENT.
   
   ...NJ/SERN PA...
   LOW-LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE SURFACE RH VALUES AGAIN FALLING TO
   AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS FLOW WILL BE
   SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER COMPARED TO SAT AND SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED
   WIND SPEEDS LARGELY REMAINING AOB 10 MPH.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 09/05/2010
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home