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ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL FNUS21 KWNS 071617 DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010 VALID 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NRN WV...WRN MD...AND CNTRL/SWRN PA... ...PORTIONS OF NRN WV...WRN MD...CNTRL/SWRN PA... INTENSE S/W TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG SWLY WIND FIELDS /20-40 KT AT 850 MB...40-60 KT AT 700 MB/ SPREADING INTO THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU REGION AND ADJACENT APPALACHIAN MTNS. AS A RESULT...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NRN WV...WRN MD...AND CNTRL/SWRN PA. MEANWHILE...DRY AIR EVIDENT IN AREA 12Z RAOBS AS WELL AS GPS TPW DATA RESIDES AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED SWD OUT OF LWR MI INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION AT 16Z. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S F...THE DRY AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT MIN RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT. DUE TO THE EXPECTED WARM/DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH RECENT DRYNESS...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. ...LEE OF THE NRN SIERRAS IN NWRN NV... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ...CNTRL/E-CNTRL NV INTO W-CNTRL UT... FAIRLY ROBUST NWD MOISTURE SURGE IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING...SUPPORTING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SRN NV AND NWRN AZ. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS D1 FORECAST...THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MARGINAL RH VALUES FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. IN ADDITION...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE UN-SUPPORTIVE OF AN OUTLOOK AREA. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ...SERN LOWER MI... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ...ERN CO... LOW-LEVEL S-SELY FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT E ACROSS THE REGION. SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS MAY REACH 20 MPH DURING PEAK HEATING...WHILE RH VALUES DIP INTO THE TEENS. HOWEVER...THE DURATION OF ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MAY DEVELOP DO NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT AN OUTLOOK AREA ATTM. ..GARNER.. 09/07/2010 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0337 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010/ ...SYNOPSIS... POTENT UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/SRN ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY WED. ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST REACHING LAKE ERIE TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. IN THE WEST...A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW INTO NRN CA. ...LEE OF THE NRN SIERRAS IN NWRN NV... LOCALIZED/MODEST-DURATION CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. LOW/MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS STRENGTHENING DURING THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 30 TO 40 MPH FLOW AT 700 MB WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH. THIS SHOULD BE COINCIDENT WITH LOW RH /FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT/ FOR A FEW HOURS...PRIOR TO MOISTENING/COOLING OCCURRING IN THE EARLY EVENING. ...CNTRL/E-CNTRL NV INTO W-CNTRL UT... A BELT OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SLYS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NV DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE PACIFIC NW. A SURGE OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WILL SPREAD NWD WITH 30S/40S SURFACE DEW POINTS BECOMING COMMON ACROSS ERN NV/WRN UT...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASINGLY MARGINAL RH VALUES. A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DRY TSTMS WILL ALSO EXIST ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE SURGE AT PEAK HEATING...BUT SHOULD PRIMARILY TRANSITION TO WET WITH CONTINUED MOISTENING. FARTHER WEST ACROSS CNTRL NV...JUXTAPOSITION OF LOW RH /FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT/ WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20 MPH SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE LACK OF MORE INTENSE SWLYS IN THE MID-LEVELS. AS SUCH...OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION ATTM. ...SERN LOWER MI... CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC DRYING WILL OCCUR AS A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES EWD INTO SWRN ONTARIO/LAKE ERIE. RH VALUES SHOULD BECOME MARGINALLY LOW FOR A FEW HOURS /NEAR 25 PERCENT/ UNTIL MORE PRONOUNCED COOLING OCCURS DURING THE EARLY EVENING. WITH 40 TO 45 MPH LOW-LEVEL WLYS...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REACH 25 MPH WITH HIGH POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GUSTS GIVEN FAVORABLE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. DESPITE BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...FUEL CONDITIONS APPEAR RELATIVELY MARGINAL...PER COORDINATION WITH WFO DTX...AND SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE OVERALL THREAT. ...CNTRL/NRN WV...CNTRL PA...WRN MD... AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM/DRY AIR MASS REMAINS WITHIN A SW TO NE CORRIDOR ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES...CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MODERATE /AROUND 15 MPH/...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 80S WILL SUPPORT RH VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT...ALTHOUGH MOISTENING IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 071620 DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z CORRECTED FOR SPELLING ERROR ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN/SRN NV...WRN UT...NWRN AZ... ...ERN/SRN NV...WRN UT...NWRN AZ... LATEST OPERATIONAL NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN FORECASTING A LARGE AREA OF CRITICAL RH /AOB 15 PERCENT/ AND SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS /AROUND 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS AOA 30 MPH/ OVER THE REGION...WHILE GFS AND NAMKF INDICATE SLIGHTLY MORE MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS /MAX SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH LOWER GUST POTENTIAL/ AND HIGHER RH VALUES /15-20 PERCENT/. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS D2 FORECAST...THE EWD EXTENT OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS ALSO IN QUESTION...AND THE MAGNITUDE AND SUBSEQUENT IMPACT FROM D1 RAINFALL MAY NEGATIVELY INFLUENCE D2 MIXING HEIGHTS AND MIN RH VALUES. DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES...NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CRITICAL AREA ATTM...BUT ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED DURING THE NEXT D1 OUTLOOK. ...FAR S-CNTRL/SERN PA...SRN NJ...NRN DE...CNTRL MD...ERN WV PANHANDLE...NRN VA...D.C.... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ..GARNER.. 09/07/2010 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0457 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010/ ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE WRN CONUS...WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS CA INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN THROUGH EARLY THU. PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME CENTERED OVER NERN NV/NWRN UT BY WED AFTERNOON...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DRAPED SWWD TOWARDS THE SRN SIERRAS. IN THE EAST...AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DECELERATE AS IT PROGRESSES EWD FROM SRN ONTARIO INTO NEW ENGLAND. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE NRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS WED MORNING REACHING THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY WED AFTERNOON. ...ERN/SRN NV...WRN UT...NWRN AZ... A BROAD SWATH OF MODERATELY STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL ENVELOP MUCH OF THE CNTRL/SRN GREAT BASIN BY WED AFTERNOON. DEEPLY MIXED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL EXIST BETWEEN A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS WRN NV AND RICHER SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CENTERED ALONG THE LONGITUDE OF THE FOUR CORNERS. WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH /WITH AREAS NEAR 30 MPH/ ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUXTAPOSED WITH RH VALUES AOB 15 PERCENT. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE ERN EXTENT OF LOW RH GIVEN MODERATE SPREAD AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE DEGREE OF MIXING ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME. ...FAR S-CNTRL/SERN PA...SRN NJ...NRN DE...CNTRL MD...ERN WV PANHANDLE...NRN VA...D.C.... MARGINAL TO LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING WED AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE DURING THE MORNING. A MODERATE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO PERHAPS 30 MPH AS DEEPER MIXING ENSUES. 06Z NAM/00Z GFS FORECASTS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE INDICATION OF RH VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY WED...WELL BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS...SUPPORTIVE OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...