Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 091649
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1149 AM CDT THU SEP 09 2010
   
   VALID 091700Z - 101200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WY...NWRN/N-CNTRL
   CO...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NERN AZ...FOUR
   CORNERS...
   
   ...PORTIONS OF WY...NWRN/N-CNTRL CO...
   SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 15Z SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING NEWD
   ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL
   CONTINUE ITS NEWD TREK ACROSS WY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
   STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL SWLY WIND FIELDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS UPPER
   LEVEL FEATURE...FAVORING SUSTAINED SURFACE SPEEDS UP TO 35 MPH AND
   GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH OVER CNTRL AND SRN WY. MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS AND
   MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL
   AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELDS ARE
   EXPECTED TO COMPENSATE.
   
   FARTHER S ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE FRONT RANGE...NAM FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN WLY WINDS IMMEDIATELY
   ABOVE THE SURFACE BY 06Z/FRIDAY...WHICH SUPPORTS THE EXTENSION OF
   THE CRITICAL AREA MADE IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THEREFORE...NO
   CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF NERN AZ...FOUR CORNERS...
   NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
   
   ...CNTRL/ERN MD...DE...NERN VA...D.C....
   PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...NO CHANGES
   HAVE BEEN MADE.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/S-CNTRL CO...
   AS SWLY MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION
   TODAY...SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE LIKELY TO
   DEVELOP. WARM/DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES ARE EVIDENT IN
   MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND AFTERNOON RH VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT
   WILL BE POSSIBLE. DURING THE OVERNIGHT...WLY WIND SPEEDS ARE
   FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER /AROUND 30-40 KT AT 1 KM AGL/ INVOF THE
   FRONT RANGE/ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION...WHICH MAY PROMOTE LOCALLY GUSTY
   WINDS AND POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY.
   
   ..GARNER.. 09/09/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0343 AM CDT THU SEP 09 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN GREAT BASIN WILL
   EJECT NEWD...REACHING THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES BY LATE EVENING.  AT THE
   SURFACE...LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NRN HIGH PLAINS...WITH
   AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DRAPED SWWD THROUGH THE ERN GREAT BASIN THIS
   AFTERNOON. IN THE EAST...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
   OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF WY...NWRN/N-CNTRL CO...
   A BELT OF INTENSE MID-LEVEL SWLYS /65 TO 75 MPH AT 500 MB/ WILL
   OVERSPREAD THE ERN GREAT BASIN AND CNTRL ROCKIES BY NOON IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH THE WRN CONUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL HELP
   SHIFT RICHER SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE E OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES...WITH A
   CORRIDOR OF DEEP VERTICAL MIXING DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE FROM NWRN CO
   ACROSS CNTRL/ERN WY. THIS MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO VERY STRONG
   SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AT PEAK HEATING...WITH GUSTS
   OF 45 TO 60 MPH PROBABLE. DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL DRYING...RH VALUES
   SHOULD ONLY BECOME MARGINALLY LOW /AROUND 12 TO 20 PERCENT/.
   HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS...LOCALIZED EXTREMELY
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR.
   
   ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE FRONT RANGE...A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY
   WLYS APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING. LATEST NAM
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 40 TO 50 MPH WLYS IN THE LOWEST
   1000-3000 FT AGL WHICH WOULD LEAD TO LOCALLY INTENSE WIND GUSTS
   INVOF ONGOING FIRES. THE NAM REMAINS STRONGEST OF OPERATIONAL MODEL
   GUIDANCE IN TEMPORAL EXTENT OF THESE WINDS PERSISTING INTO THE
   OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN POOR RH RECOVERY. THE LATEST
   GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST STRONG WLYS WILL PRIMARILY RESIDE FARTHER N IN
   SERN WY DURING THE OVERNIGHT...WHICH BREEDS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
   TEMPORAL EXTENT OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN N-CNTRL CO.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF NERN AZ...FOUR CORNERS...
   ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE INTENSE MID-LEVEL SWLYS OVER THE ERN
   GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
   LARGELY RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FOUR
   CORNERS AREA. AS SUBSTANTIAL DRYING OVERSPREADS THE REGION...RH
   VALUES SHOULD BECOME LOW /AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT/...PRIMARILY
   ACROSS NERN AZ. FARTHER N/E...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO AREAS OF MODERATE
   RAIN ON WED SHOULD MITIGATE THE OVERALL THREAT ACROSS MOST OF ERN
   UT/WRN CO/NWRN NM.
   
   ...CNTRL/ERN MD...DE...NERN VA...D.C....
   NWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS
   AFTERNOON COMPARED TO WED /PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER
   80S/. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE MARGINAL RH VALUES...IN THE UPPER 20S
   TO MIDDLE 30S. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
   /NEAR 15 MPH/ AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL
   FOR GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN ELEVATED FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 091841
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0141 PM CDT THU SEP 09 2010
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO/SWRN NEB
   PANHANDLE...
   
   ...FAR SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO/SWRN NEB PANHANDLE...
   A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND ASSOCIATED MODERATE WLY WIND
   FIELDS...AROUND 20 KT OF 700 MB FLOW OVER N-CNTRL CO TO 35 KT OVER
   SERN WY/ IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES BY 18Z
   FRIDAY...AND WILL PROMOTE MODEST DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE LEE OF
   THE ROCKIES/FOOTHILLS IN N-CNTRL CO /WHERE ONGOING WILDFIRES ARE
   OCCURRING/. 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE MOST BULLISH WITH THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF 20 MPH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OVER N-CNTRL CO...WITH A
   PERIOD OF NEAR CRITICAL RH VALUES EVIDENT AT 12Z /ASSOCIATED WITH
   STRONGER OVERNIGHT DOWNSLOPE WINDS/...AND A SECOND PERIOD OF
   CRITICAL RH VALUES OCCURRING NEAR 18Z /WHICH WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY
   DRIVEN/. GIVEN THE ONGOING FOUR MILE CANYON FIRE...CRITICAL AREA
   WILL BE MAINTAINED.
   
   FARTHER N OVER SERN WY AND THE SWRN NEB PANHANDLE...LOCAL MAXIMA IN
   SFC-700 MB WLY FLOW IS OBSERVED IN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH MAY
   FAVOR ENHANCED WARMING/DRYING BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES DUE TO STRONG
   DOWNSLOPE REGIME...YIELDING POSSIBLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS AOA 30
   MPH.
   
   ...E-CNTRL NM AND FAR W TX...
   MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A ZONE OF 30 KT 700 MB FLOW /AS
   DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS D2 FORECAST/ RESIDING OVER E-CNTRL NM AS WELL
   AS FAR W TX...WHICH MAY PROMOTE 15-20 MPH SUSTAINED WLY WIND SPEEDS
   AT THE SURFACE AS STRONG HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TAKES
   PLACE. WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT...NEAR TO LOCALLY
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ..GARNER.. 09/09/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0453 AM CDT THU SEP 09 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL SHIFT
   E/NEWD ACROSS THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND THE NRN PLAINS.
   PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE WILL MOVE NWD AND OCCLUDE ACROSS SRN
   MANITOBA...WHILE AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE
   NRN/CNTRL PLAINS.
   
   ...FAR SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO/SWRN NEB PANHANDLE...
   MARGINAL TO LOCALIZED LOW-END CRITICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP FRI
   ALONG THE LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE IN SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO EWD INTO THE
   NEB PANHANDLE. LOCALLY GUSTY WLY WINDS MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z/FRI
   ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. THE 06Z NAM REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH
   OPERATIONAL MODEL IN TEMPORAL EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   LATE DAY 1. HOWEVER...IT DOES DEPICT AT LEAST FAIR RH RECOVERY
   OCCURRING FRI MORNING WHICH SUGGESTS THE PROBABILITY OF ONGOING
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO BE LOW. AS DAYTIME HEATING ENSUES...A
   DEEPENING MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL POTENTIALLY SUPPORT MORE
   WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE. NEVERTHELESS...CONSENSUS OF
   MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE
   DAY. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
   GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ACROSS SERN WY INTO NEB PANHANDLE AND EXTREME
   NRN CO...WHERE AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD BECOME MARGINALLY LOW
   /FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT/. FARTHER S IN N-CNTRL CO...SUSTAINED WINDS
   SHOULD BE MODERATE AROUND 15 MPH WITH RH VALUES NEAR 15 PERCENT.
   
   ...E-CNTRL NM...
   LATEST MODEL FORECASTS ARE HIGHLY CONSISTENT THAT A ZONE OF ENHANCED
   LOW-LEVEL WLYS /AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH AT 700 MB/ WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN
   THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SACRAMENTO MTNS FRI MORNING. AS DAYTIME
   HEATING COMMENCES...MIXING OF THIS MODERATELY STRONG FLOW TO THE
   SURFACE WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN
   8 AND 15 PERCENT...LIKELY RESULTING IN AN ENHANCED TO LOCALIZED
   CRITICAL THREAT.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home