Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 181630
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2010
   
   VALID 181700Z - 191200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...S-CNTRL WY...NWRN CO...
   RECENT VWP DATA FROM RIW/CYS/GJT DEPICT 20 TO 30 MPH LOW-LEVEL WLYS.
   AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REACH
   15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. AS RH VALUES DROP TO BETWEEN
   6 AND 12 PERCENT WEST OF THE LARAMIE MTNS/FRONT RANGE...LOCALIZED
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON. MORNING MODEL
   FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT THAT LOW/MID-LEVEL WLYS WILL SUBSIDE
   SLIGHTLY IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE BUILDING
   DOWNSTREAM OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD
   TEMPER THE OVERALL DURATION OF ANY CRITICAL THREAT.
   
   ...E-CNTRL NV...W-CNTRL/SWRN UT...
   WITH A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE PROCESS OF DIGGING OFF
   THE ORE/NRN CA COAST...MID/UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS SHOULD SLOWLY RISE
   THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. LATEST
   NAM/GFS/SREF-ETAKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING
   WEAK WAA IN THE MID-LEVELS TEMPERING THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED BOUNDARY
   LAYER RELATIVE TO FRI. WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN MID-LEVEL
   FLOW...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MORE MARGINAL COMPARED TO
   FRI. AREAS OF SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL APPROACH 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
   LARGELY REMAINING AOB 25 MPH. NEVERTHELESS...LOW RH VALUES WILL
   PERSIST /FROM 5 TO 10 PERCENT/ AND MAINTAIN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 09/18/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO
   THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER
   LOW/TROUGH CENTERED OVER SRN HUDSON BAY AND AN UPSTREAM UPPER
   LOW/TROUGH LOCATED OFF THE W COAST.  IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SHARP
   FRONTAL ZONE WILL EXTEND FROM THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE NWWD TO THE
   NRN ROCKIES.
   
   ...SWRN WY / NWRN CO AND E-CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN...
   ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN UNDERNEATH UPPER
   RIDGING WILL AGAIN LEAD TO LOW RH /8-15 PERCENT/ AS THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER WARMS DUE TO STRONG HEATING.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
   TO SHOW TEMPERED WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN
   THE TEENS MPH.  THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE...BUT LOCALIZED
   HIGHER GUSTS /25-30 MPH/ SEEM PLAUSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NV AND
   WRN UT AND ACROSS SWRN WY-NWRN CO /SUPPORTED BY 00Z/18 4 KM MODEL
   OUTPUT/...ENHANCING THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 181812
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0112 PM CDT SAT SEP 18 2010
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF ERN/SRN NV...WRN/NRN
   UT...SERN ID...SRN WY...NWRN CO...
   
   ...PORTIONS OF ERN/SRN NV...WRN/NRN UT...SERN ID...SRN WY...NWRN
   CO...
   PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN AREAS OF
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN NEWD TOWARDS THE
   CNTRL ROCKIES. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
   INDICATING A BROAD SWATH OF 20 TO 40 MPH WINDS AT 700 MB
   OVERSPREADING THE REGION DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
   REACHING THE PACIFIC NW/NRN CA COAST SUN AFTERNOON. HAVE COMBINED
   THE TWO CRITICAL AREAS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE
   WINDS AROUND 20 MPH NOW APPEARING PROBABLE ACROSS SERN ID AND NWRN
   CO...JUXTAPOSED WITH LOW RH VALUES OF 8 TO 15 PERCENT.
   
   THE LONGEST DURATION/GREATEST AMPLITUDE OF THE CRITICAL THREAT STILL
   APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS E-CNTRL NV INTO W-CNTRL UT.
   HERE...SUSTAINED S/SWLYS AROUND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH SHOULD
   BE COMMON...COINCIDENT WITH VERY LOW RH VALUES NEAR 5 PERCENT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 09/18/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0245 AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LOW WILL EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN UPPER TROUGH AND MOVE ONSHORE
   INTO THE PACIFIC NW.  INCREASING SWLY TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AHEAD OF
   THIS SYSTEM ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE CONDUCIVE
   FOR ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.  IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A COLD
   FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EWD ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN
   AND EXTEND FROM CNTRL NV INTO S-CNTRL ID BY SUNDAY EVENING.  A
   RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE DRAPED NW TO SE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES
   INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.
   
   ...LARGE PART OF WRN UT / MUCH OF CNTRL NV...
   A BELT OF 40-60 KT SWLY H5 WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THIS AREA DURING
   PEAK HEATING SUNDAY.  STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF AN
   APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER
   MIXING--SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
   /40 MPH/.  WITH TEMPS WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S/80S IN THE WARM
   SECTOR...SURFACE RH VALUES WILL LIKELY PLUMMET INTO THE 4-12 PERCENT
   RANGE.
   
   ...S-CNTRL WY...
   GUSTY SWLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WY AS H7 FLOW INCREASES TO 30 KTS BY
   SUNDAY EVENING PER LATEST ECMWF MODEL DATA.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
   SHOWING VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT WILL PROMOTE A
   WELL-MIXED AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.  SURFACE RH WILL LIKELY RANGE
   5-15 PERCENT.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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