Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 201620
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1120 AM CDT MON SEP 20 2010
   
   VALID 201700Z - 211200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE ERN GREAT BASIN /
   CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   
   NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CRITICAL AREA AND FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
   REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
   
   FOR THE SEE TEXT AREA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO
   THE CNTRL PLAINS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN OF S CNTRL CO NEWD INTO NERN CO AND CNTRL NEB ALONG
   THE SFC TROF. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SPARSE AND SOME OF
   THESE STORMS MAY BE DRY...ESPECIALLY OVER S CNTRL CO. GUSTY AND
   ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
   
   ..STOPPKOTTE.. 09/20/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT MON SEP 20 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES
   MOVING CYCLONICALLY THROUGH A LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
   NWRN CONUS AS IT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS STATES BY TUESDAY
   MORNING.  AS THIS OCCURS...AN UPPER HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY AND THE SERN STATES.  A BELT OF STRONG SWLY
   TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL QUICKLY SPREAD NEWD FROM THE ERN GREAT BASIN
   INTO THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY.  AT THE
   SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT BASIN
   INTO WY WITH A NERN EXTENSION OF THE FRONT PUSHING SWD ACROSS ERN WY
   INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE.  BEFORE THIS OCCURS...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH EXTENDING
   FROM NEAR THE UT/AZ BORDER NEWD TO NERN PORTIONS OF WY AND THE CO
   FRONT RANGE AND EXTENDING INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE.  FARTHER SE OVER
   THE CNTRL PLAINS...STRONG SSWLY WINDS WILL OCCUR WITHIN A
   WARM/RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER W OF A NARROW MOISTURE FEED FROM
   THE GULF OF MEXICO.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF THE ERN GREAT BASIN / CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   LOW RH/STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING EWD
   MOVING COLD FRONT OVER PARTS OF UT/WRN WY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE
   BY MID-AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
   REGION WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 MPH ON THE SW EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL
   AREA TO NEAR 30 MPH ACROSS SERN WY...WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH AT
   TIMES.  00Z/20 SLC/DNR/RIW RAOBS SHOWED A DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE
   THRU 10 KFT.  THE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL AGAIN YIELD
   EXTREMELY STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEPLY MIXED PROFILES.
   RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 5-15 PERCENT RANGE AGAIN ACROSS THE
   REGION--CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID/VOLATILE FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO CNTRL PLAINS...
   BREEZY SSWLY WINDS WILL EXIST FROM THE OK/TX PANHANDLES/NWRN OK
   ACROSS MUCH OF KS INTO NEB AS A SECONDARY LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPS AND
   DEEPENS INVOF ERN CO/NWRN KS WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH
   EXTENDING SWD INTO NERN NM.  WHILE RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE
   25-35 PERCENT RANGE...UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
   80S TO LOW 90S AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL COMBINE WITH
   SUSTAINED SSWLY SFC WINDS OF 20-35 MPH /GUSTING TO AOA 40 MPH AT
   TIMES/--RESULTING IN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 201726
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1226 PM CDT MON SEP 20 2010
   
   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL GREAT BASIN...
   
   ...CNTRL GREAT BASIN...
   ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CRITICAL AREA FOR TUESDAY. THE
   NWRN EDGE OF THE AREA WAS PULLED SLIGHTLY SWD OVER PARTS OF NV AND
   UT. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
   
   ...S CNTRL WY...
   FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME INCONSISTENCY IN THE STRENGTH
   OF SFC WINDS OVER PARTS OF SRN WY WITH THE NAM STILL A BIT STRONGER
   THAN THE GFS. THE NAM IS SUGGESTING SFC SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS UP TO
   15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND MARGINAL RH VALUES AROUND 12-18
   PERCENT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS IS FORECASTING SUSTAINED SFC
   WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH AND RH VALUES AROUND 10-15
   PERCENT. WILL CONTINUE THE SEE TEXT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN WIND SPEEDS
   AND RH VALUES. REGARDLESS...AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT WILL EXIST GIVEN
   PROLONGED DRYNESS.
   
   ..STOPPKOTTE.. 09/20/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0327 AM CDT MON SEP 20 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO CA
   DURING THE PERIOD WHILE A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PERSISTS OVER THE
   SERN U.S.  INCREASING WSWLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE GREAT BASIN
   AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
   HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE GREAT
   BASIN.  IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS THE
   UPPER GREAT LAKES AND STALL OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.  A SURFACE RIDGE
   WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE NRN GULF COAST STATES. 
   FARTHER W...A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN NV AND GULF OF CA MOISTURE
   WILL SURGE NWD THROUGH THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY.
   
   ...CNTRL GREAT BASIN...
   MODERATELY STRONG WINDS ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE ERN
   HALF OF NV AND A LARGE PORTION OF UT EXTENDING INTO EXTREME SWRN WY
   DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS TUESDAY AS A 110 KT H25 JET
   ARRIVES OVER THE SRN SIERRAS BY 00Z/WEDNESDAY.  MODEL FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS RANGING FROM 20-25 MPH ACROSS THE
   REGION WITH GUSTS PERHAPS APPROACHING 40 MPH.  STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WILL LIKELY EXIST AND PROMOTE AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER
   MIXING--YIELDING SURFACE RH 8-15 PERCENT.
   
   ...S-CNTRL WY...
   AN ANTECEDENTLY DRY AIRMASS IS FORECAST ONCE AGAIN ACROSS WY DURING
   PEAK HEATING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE EXHIBITS
   SOME VARIABILITY WITH REGARD TO THE STRENGTH OF SURFACE WINDS.  THE
   00Z/20 NAM MODEL IN PARTICULAR INDICATES THAT SUSTAINED WINDS MAY BE
   AS HIGH AS 20 MPH /HIGHER GUSTS/ WITH THE GFS EXHIBITING SLIGHTLY
   WEAKER BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  NONETHELESS...ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING HOURS.  A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN
   SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS IF WINDS ARE AS STRONG AS FORECAST AS DEPICTED
   BY SOME MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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