Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 011633
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 AM CDT FRI OCT 01 2010
VALID 011700Z - 021200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
...LOWER MS VALLEY...
HAVE UPGRADED PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS ERN AR/NERN LA
INTO WRN MS/SWRN TN WHERE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST
TODAY. LOW PW VALUES /AROUND 0.35 TO 0.40 IN PER 12Z SGF AND LZK
RAOBS/ WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN A MODERATE NLY
FLOW REGIME. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...RH
VALUES WILL BECOME QUITE LOW /12 TO 20 PERCENT/. REGIONAL
PROFILER/VWP DATA INDICATE 5000-6000 FT AGL N/NELYS OF 25 TO 35 MPH.
ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH AN
ANTICYCLONE GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE OZARK PLATEAU...SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WILL REMAIN COMMON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 MPH. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT...LOW-END
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE.
...SRN UT...NRN AZ...
LITTLE CHANGE WARRANTED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED HIGH-BASED TSTMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WEAK
FLOW THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL LIMIT INDIVIDUAL CELL
MOTION AND SHOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A HYBRID WET/DRY TSTM THREAT
WHERE COVERAGE IS GREATEST /MOST LIKELY IN NWRN AZ ON THE PERIPHERY
OF ROBUST MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY/. MORE
ISOLATED...BUT DRIER TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER N AND E /FROM SRN
UT INTO NERN AZ/ ON THE FRINGE OF WHERE SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR DEEP
CONVECTION EXISTS.
...COASTAL MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA...SRN SIERRAS...
12 TO 14Z RAOBS FROM NKX AND EDW...ALONG WITH GPS PW DATA INDICATE
WELL ABOVE-NORMAL PW VALUES /FROM 1 TO 1.5 IN/ ACROSS THE SRN THIRD
OF CA. DESPITE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE
COASTAL RANGES TOWARDS THE SRN SIERRAS THIS AFTERNOON...THE ROBUST
MOISTURE ALONG WITH MODEST STORM MOTION SHOULD MITIGATE THE THREAT
FOR DRY TSTMS.
..GRAMS.. 10/01/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT FRI OCT 01 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW NOTED ON WV IMAGERY AS OF 0630Z OVER COASTAL SRN CA
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD...LEADING
TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA...AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN
NV/UT/CO AND NRN AZ/NM.
MEANWHILE FARTHER EAST...THE ATLANTIC COAST UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT OFFSHORE. A DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE IN
NLY/NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST
STATES...WHERE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT.
...HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...
MID LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS SLOWLY INCREASING AHEAD OF A
NEARLY STATIONARY LOW OVER COASTAL SRN CA...EVIDENCED BY ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS AS OF 0630Z NEAR THE CA/AZ BORDER. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED HIGH-BASED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
00Z FLAGSTAFF AZ SOUNDING SHOWS DRY SUBCLOUD LAYERS AND 0.36 INCH
PWAT. DESPITE GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SIMILAR
PROFILES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A THREAT OF
LIGHTNING STARTED FIRES WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT CAN DEVELOP.
...COASTAL MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA...SRN SIERRAS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS SRN CA AS OF 0630Z. ALTHOUGH THE
00Z SAN DIEGO SOUNDING DOES NOT APPEAR REPRESENTATIVE...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE /WITH PWATS OVER 1 INCH/ FOR
WET THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE MODEL QPF SEEMS TO SUPPORT THIS WITH
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THE ANTICIPATED COVERAGE OF
LIGHTNING MAY POSE A THREAT...DESPITE POSSIBLE RAINFALL. ON THE
PERIPHERY OF GREATER MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SRN
SIERRAS...COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED...THOUGH DRIER IN
NATURE.
...LWR MS VALLEY REGION...GULF COAST STATES...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION
AND GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ONCE AGAIN
FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S...DESPITE HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRYNESS/HIGH
KBDI AND DROUGHT...A HEIGHTENED THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS A
WIDESPREAD AREA.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 011827
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 PM CDT FRI OCT 01 2010
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...SWRN UT...E-CNTRL NV...
HIGH-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR AT PEAK HEATING ALONG THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF RICHER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINGERING
UPPER-LEVEL LOW ALONG THE SRN CA COAST. LIGHT FLOW THROUGH THE
CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL LIMIT INDIVIDUAL CELL MOTION AND AID IN DRY
TSTM COVERAGE REMAINING ISOLATED. FARTHER S...HIGHER PW VALUES /AOA
0.75 IN/ IN CONJUNCTION WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
MAINLY A MIXED TO LARGELY WET TSTM MODE.
...LOWER MS VALLEY...
RATHER DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WITH CONTINUED NLY FLOW. RH VALUES SHOULD TUMBLE TO BETWEEN
15 AND 25 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF SRN AR...ERN TX...LA/MS AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER COMPARED TO FRI AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT.
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD LARGELY HOLD AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH...BUT GIVEN ONGOING WIDESPREAD DROUGHT...A HEIGHTENED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT WILL PERSIST.
..GRAMS.. 10/01/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0314 AM CDT FRI OCT 01 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SRN CA BEFORE A
STRONGER TROUGH PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST OVERNIGHT AND
BEGINS TO SHUNT THE SYSTEM EWD LATE IN THE PERIOD. LINGERING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO WET THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD ACROSS SRN CA...WHILE ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE PERIPHERY OF GREATER MOISTURE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THE GREAT BASIN...PRIMARILY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. COOL AND DRY NWLY FLOW WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST REGION.
...SRN CA/NV/UT AND NRN AZ/NM...
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO D1 WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AS
AN UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER SRN CA. LITTLE CHANGE IN
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WET THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN CA...AND AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EWD
OVERNIGHT...NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR THE CA/NV BORDER...THEN INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN
THE PERIOD. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THESE AREAS...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AND DRY IN NATURE...BUT DO NOT WARRANT A
CRITICAL DELINEATION AT THIS TIME.
...LWR MS VALLEY REGION...GULF COAST STATES...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WITH RIDGING IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES SWWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE COOL AND DRY NWLY FLOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF
COAST REGION. WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE 20S CAN BE EXPECTED...THOUGH WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN 10 MPH. HOWEVER...GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRYNESS AND DROUGHT
CONDITIONS...A HEIGHTENED THREAT WILL EXIST.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...