Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 011633
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1133 AM CDT FRI OCT 01 2010
   
   VALID 011700Z - 021200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY...
   HAVE UPGRADED PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS ERN AR/NERN LA
   INTO WRN MS/SWRN TN WHERE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST
   TODAY. LOW PW VALUES /AROUND 0.35 TO 0.40 IN PER 12Z SGF AND LZK
   RAOBS/ WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN A MODERATE NLY
   FLOW REGIME. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...RH
   VALUES WILL BECOME QUITE LOW /12 TO 20 PERCENT/. REGIONAL
   PROFILER/VWP DATA INDICATE 5000-6000 FT AGL N/NELYS OF 25 TO 35 MPH.
   ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH AN
   ANTICYCLONE GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE OZARK PLATEAU...SUSTAINED
   SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WILL REMAIN COMMON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO
   30 MPH. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT...LOW-END
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE.
   
   ...SRN UT...NRN AZ...
   LITTLE CHANGE WARRANTED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING WITH ISOLATED
   TO SCATTERED HIGH-BASED TSTMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WEAK
   FLOW THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL LIMIT INDIVIDUAL CELL
   MOTION AND SHOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A HYBRID WET/DRY TSTM THREAT
   WHERE COVERAGE IS GREATEST /MOST LIKELY IN NWRN AZ ON THE PERIPHERY
   OF ROBUST MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY/. MORE
   ISOLATED...BUT DRIER TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER N AND E /FROM SRN
   UT INTO NERN AZ/ ON THE FRINGE OF WHERE SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR DEEP
   CONVECTION EXISTS.
   
   ...COASTAL MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA...SRN SIERRAS...
   12 TO 14Z RAOBS FROM NKX AND EDW...ALONG WITH GPS PW DATA INDICATE
   WELL ABOVE-NORMAL PW VALUES /FROM 1 TO 1.5 IN/ ACROSS THE SRN THIRD
   OF CA. DESPITE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE
   COASTAL RANGES TOWARDS THE SRN SIERRAS THIS AFTERNOON...THE ROBUST
   MOISTURE ALONG WITH MODEST STORM MOTION SHOULD MITIGATE THE THREAT
   FOR DRY TSTMS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 10/01/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT FRI OCT 01 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A WEAK UPPER LOW NOTED ON WV IMAGERY AS OF 0630Z OVER COASTAL SRN CA
   WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD...LEADING
   TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL
   MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA...AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN
   NV/UT/CO AND NRN AZ/NM.
   
   MEANWHILE FARTHER EAST...THE ATLANTIC COAST UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
   HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST WILL BEGIN
   TO SHIFT OFFSHORE. A DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE IN
   NLY/NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST
   STATES...WHERE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...
   MID LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS SLOWLY INCREASING AHEAD OF A
   NEARLY STATIONARY LOW OVER COASTAL SRN CA...EVIDENCED BY ONGOING
   THUNDERSTORMS AS OF 0630Z NEAR THE CA/AZ BORDER. ISOLATED TO
   SCATTERED HIGH-BASED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
   00Z FLAGSTAFF AZ SOUNDING SHOWS DRY SUBCLOUD LAYERS AND 0.36 INCH
   PWAT. DESPITE GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SIMILAR
   PROFILES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A THREAT OF
   LIGHTNING STARTED FIRES WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT CAN DEVELOP.
   
   ...COASTAL MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA...SRN SIERRAS...
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS SRN CA AS OF 0630Z. ALTHOUGH THE
   00Z SAN DIEGO SOUNDING DOES NOT APPEAR REPRESENTATIVE...FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE /WITH PWATS OVER 1 INCH/ FOR
   WET THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE MODEL QPF SEEMS TO SUPPORT THIS WITH
   MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THE ANTICIPATED COVERAGE OF
   LIGHTNING MAY POSE A THREAT...DESPITE POSSIBLE RAINFALL. ON THE
   PERIPHERY OF GREATER MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SRN
   SIERRAS...COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED...THOUGH DRIER IN
   NATURE.
   
   ...LWR MS VALLEY REGION...GULF COAST STATES...
   A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION
   AND GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ONCE AGAIN
   FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S...DESPITE HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT
   WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED
   WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRYNESS/HIGH
   KBDI AND DROUGHT...A HEIGHTENED THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS A
   WIDESPREAD AREA.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 011827
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0127 PM CDT FRI OCT 01 2010
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   
   ...SWRN UT...E-CNTRL NV...
   HIGH-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR AT PEAK HEATING ALONG THE
   NRN PERIPHERY OF RICHER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINGERING
   UPPER-LEVEL LOW ALONG THE SRN CA COAST. LIGHT FLOW THROUGH THE
   CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL LIMIT INDIVIDUAL CELL MOTION AND AID IN DRY
   TSTM COVERAGE REMAINING ISOLATED. FARTHER S...HIGHER PW VALUES /AOA
   0.75 IN/ IN CONJUNCTION WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
   MAINLY A MIXED TO LARGELY WET TSTM MODE.
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY...
   RATHER DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY WITH CONTINUED NLY FLOW. RH VALUES SHOULD TUMBLE TO BETWEEN
   15 AND 25 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF SRN AR...ERN TX...LA/MS AS
   TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER COMPARED TO FRI AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT RELAXES SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT.
   SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD LARGELY HOLD AROUND 10 TO 15
   MPH...BUT GIVEN ONGOING WIDESPREAD DROUGHT...A HEIGHTENED FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT WILL PERSIST.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 10/01/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0314 AM CDT FRI OCT 01 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SRN CA BEFORE A
   STRONGER TROUGH PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST OVERNIGHT AND
   BEGINS TO SHUNT THE SYSTEM EWD LATE IN THE PERIOD. LINGERING
   MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO WET THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD ACROSS SRN CA...WHILE ISOLATED DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE PERIPHERY OF GREATER MOISTURE
   OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THE GREAT BASIN...PRIMARILY IN THE
   AFTERNOON/EVENING.
   
   FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES
   REGION SWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. COOL AND DRY NWLY FLOW WILL
   LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST REGION.
   
   ...SRN CA/NV/UT AND NRN AZ/NM...
   SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO D1 WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AS
   AN UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER SRN CA. LITTLE CHANGE IN
   MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WET THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN CA...AND AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EWD
   OVERNIGHT...NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN NEAR THE CA/NV BORDER...THEN INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN
   THE PERIOD. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THESE AREAS...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
   WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AND DRY IN NATURE...BUT DO NOT WARRANT A
   CRITICAL DELINEATION AT THIS TIME.
   
   ...LWR MS VALLEY REGION...GULF COAST STATES...
   AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WITH RIDGING IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH
   DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES SWWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL
   CONTINUE COOL AND DRY NWLY FLOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF
   COAST REGION. WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S WITH RELATIVE
   HUMIDITIES IN THE 20S CAN BE EXPECTED...THOUGH WINDS WILL GENERALLY
   BE LESS THAN 10 MPH. HOWEVER...GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRYNESS AND DROUGHT
   CONDITIONS...A HEIGHTENED THREAT WILL EXIST.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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