Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 061636
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1136 AM CDT WED OCT 06 2010
   
   VALID 061700Z - 071200Z
   
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY...DEEP SOUTH...NRN FL...
   PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING ON TRACK. THE SPATIAL EXTENT AND
   MAGNITUDE OF LOW RH WILL LIKELY PEAK THIS AFTERNOON RELATIVE TO THE
   PAST SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY CONDITIONS. RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
   15 PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE 20S ELSEWHERE.
   SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MODEST /FROM 6 TO 12 MPH/...BUT
   GUSTS APPROACHING 20 MPH APPEAR PROBABLE OVER ERN AL/WRN GA/FL
   PANHANDLE WHERE RELATIVELY STRONGER NLYS RESIDE AT THE TOP OF THE
   MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 10/06/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT WED OCT 06 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A COMPACT UPPER TROUGH IS QUICKLY PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH THE
   CANADIAN PROVINCES...AND WILL FINALLY ALLOW A NEARLY STATIONARY
   CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC TO EJECT ENEWD INTO NEW
   ENGLAND. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL
   BUILD EWD. FARTHER WEST...A SEPARATE CLOSED LOW OVER CNTRL CA WILL
   SLOWLY DRIFT ENEWD TO THE CNTRL CA/NV BORDER. COOL AND MOIST
   CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH
   OF THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO THIS UPPER SYSTEM.
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST...
   A VERY DRY AIR MASS CONTINUES...WITH 00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATING PWAT
   FROM 0.25 TO 0.45 INCH ONCE AGAIN. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN DRYNESS IS
   ANTICIPATED TODAY...BUT WITH THE EWD SHIFT OF UPPER RIDGING...WARMER
   TEMPERATURES THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
   TO LOWER 80S CAN BE EXPECTED. GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS AND WARMER
   TEMPERATURES...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID
   20S ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY
   BE BELOW 10 MPH.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 061942
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0242 PM CDT WED OCT 06 2010
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NERN WY...
   
   ...PORTIONS OF NERN WY...
   A RELATIVELY LOCALIZED CRITICAL THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP THU AFTERNOON
   IN THE LEE OF THE BIG HORN MTNS AS LOW-LEVEL SWLYS STRENGTHEN
   DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE 12Z NAM APPEARS MORE INTENSE WITH THE
   AMPLITUDE OF THIS STRENGTHENING RELATIVE TO THE CONSENSUS OF OTHER
   DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THE LATTER BEING SUGGESTIVE OF
   SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS FROM 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH.
   THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW RH APPEARS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...GIVEN CURRENT
   PRESENCE OF WELL ABOVE-NORMAL PW VALUES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
   WEST TO THE HIGH PLAINS. NEVERTHELESS...DOWNSLOPE DRYING/WARMING
   SHOULD SUPPORT MARGINALLY LOW RH VALUES /FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT/
   DEVELOPING DURING THE MID/LATE-AFTERNOON. GIVEN BELOW-NORMAL
   RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS...A CRITICAL AREA APPEARS
   JUSTIFIED.
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY...DEEP SOUTH...NRN FL...
   LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE REGION. ACROSS NRN MS/AL/GA...DURATIONS OF LOW RH SHOULD BE
   SHORTER THAN ON WED/D1...AS THE TRAILING PORTION OF A WEAKENING COLD
   FRONT REACHES THE TN VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
   MODEST MOISTENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DESPITE LIGHT NWLY LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 10/06/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0303 AM CDT WED OCT 06 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN NRN NEW ENGLAND WILL MERGE WITH A
   COMPACT/STRONG UPPER TROUGH IN QUEBEC...BECOMING AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
   TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE UPPER
   HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EWD AS THIS
   OCCURS. MEANWHILE FARTHER W...A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR THE CNTRL
   CA/NV BORDER WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO EJECT ENEWD INTO THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...BUT COOL AND MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS AND
   WIDESPREAD WET THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY LIMIT THE THREAT OF
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST...
   A DRY AIR MASS WILL LINGER FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY EWD THROUGH MUCH
   OF THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER RIDGING BUILDING EWD WILL ALLOW HIGH
   TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS
   FEW DAYS...GENERALLY IN THE 80S FOR THURSDAY. GIVEN DRY AIR MASS AND
   WARM TEMPERATURES...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
   20S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN
   BELOW 10 MPH.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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