Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 071612
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1112 AM CDT THU OCT 07 2010
   
   VALID 071700Z - 081200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NERN WY...EXTREME SERN
   MT/NWRN SD...
   
   ...PORTIONS OF NERN WY...EXTREME SERN MT/NWRN SD...
   PREVIOUS FORECAST CONDITIONS WELL ON TRACK...WITH A MINOR AREAL
   EXPANSION OF CRITICAL AREA TO THE E/NE. 16Z METARS AT KGCC AND KSPF
   OBSERVED SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AROUND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO
   40 MPH OWING TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BELT OF STRONG
   LOW-LEVEL SWLYS OVERSPREADING THE LEE OF THE BIG HORN MTNS THIS
   MORNING. ALTHOUGH 12Z MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT IN WEAKENING
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AS RH BECOMES MARGINALLY LOW...A
   DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT STRONG WINDS PERSISTING FOR
   SEVERAL HOURS.
   
   ...ERN TX...LOWER MS VALLEY...DEEP SOUTH...NRN FL...
   PREVIOUS FORECAST WELL ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATE NEEDED.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 10/07/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT THU OCT 07 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR THE CNTRL CA/NV BORDER WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
   EJECT NEWD...BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
   A LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO THIS...CREATING A LOCALIZED
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN PORTIONS OF NERN WY.
   
   FARTHER E...A CLOSED UPPER WAVE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL EJECT NEWD IN
   ADVANCE OF A COMPACT UPPER LOW MOVING EWD THROUGH QUEBEC. BEHIND
   THIS WAVE...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
   BUILD EWD...WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS A
   WIDESPREAD AREA OF THE SOUTHEAST.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF NERN WY...
   SSWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
   TROUGH...STRENGTHENING A LEE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
   ENHANCE WLY/SWLY SURFACE WINDS OFF THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS...WITH
   SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AS MIXING HEIGHTS
   DEEPEN TO AROUND 7500 TO 9000 FT. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALSO ENHANCE
   DRYING...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LIKELY DROPPING INTO THE MID TO
   UPPER TEENS BY AFTERNOON AS INITIAL CLOUD COVER CLEARS AND
   TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. GIVEN BELOW NORMAL
   RAINFALL THE PAST FEW MONTHS...THE CRITICAL AREA WILL BE MAINTAINED
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN WY. RAINFALL AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
   APPEAR POSSIBLE AFTER DARK...WHICH MAY EASE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT
   OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...ERN TX...LOWER MS VALLEY...DEEP SOUTH...NRN FL...
   00Z SOUNDINGS STILL REFLECT A VERY DRY AIR MASS...WITH 0.25 TO 0.45
   INCH PWAT...AND EVEN DRIER VALUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPED INTO THE TEENS ACROSS A
   WIDESPREAD AREA YESTERDAY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH
   WARMER TEMPERATURES IN RESPONSE TO THE EWD BUILDING UPPER
   RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN
   THE 80S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF NEAR 90 F IN
   PORTIONS OF ERN TX. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RELATIVE
   HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. GIVEN THE PROLONGED PERIOD
   OF LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL...HIGH KBDI...AND DROUGHT...A HEIGHTENED
   FIRE THREAT WILL EXIST...DESPITE SUSTAINED WINDS THAT WILL GENERALLY
   BE LESS THAN 10 MPH.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 071935
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0235 PM CDT THU OCT 07 2010
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WRN KS...OK PANHANDLE...
   
   ...WRN KS...OK PANHANDLE...
   PREVIOUS FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK...WITH A SLIGHT WWD SHIFT TO
   THE CRITICAL AREA FOLLOWING THE CONSENSUS OF 12Z MODEL FORECASTS
   WITH THE AXIS OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SLYS. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF
   SLIGHTLY OVERALL ON THE AMPLITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW FRI AFTERNOON.
   SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY STRONG /NEAR 20
   MPH/ WITH ONLY SPORADIC GUSTS FROM 25 TO 30 MPH. MARGINAL TO LOW-END
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP AS RH VALUES FALL TO BETWEEN 15
   AND 20 PERCENT.
   
   ...SERN CO...
   ISOLATED DRY TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE
   E-CNTRL/SERN CO PLAINS FRI AFTERNOON. THE 12Z NAM AND ASSOCIATED
   WRF-BASED SREF MEMBERS SUGGEST COVERAGE WOULD INCREASE TO SCATTERED
   TO NUMEROUS TOWARDS EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
   HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY BECOME WET AS TEMPERATURES LOWER
   RAPIDLY DUE TO CONSOLIDATION OF COLD FRONT/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS.
   
   WITH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF REMAINING FASTER THAN THE NAM WITH THE EWD
   PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
   CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW-AVERAGE WITH THE POTENTIAL
   OF STRONG WINDS/LOW RH ALONG THE LEE OF THE S-CNTRL CO ROCKIES. THE
   MORE PROGRESSIVE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
   AND LOW RH SHOULD DEVELOP PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. GIVEN LOW
   CONFIDENCE AND PROBABLE SHORT-DURATION OF ANY CRITICAL THREAT...WILL
   REFRAIN FROM AN AREA DELINEATION ATTM.
   
   ...ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...GULF COAST...
   NO CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 10/07/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0339 AM CDT THU OCT 07 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
   CNTRL PLAINS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT
   EWD INTO THE PLAINS. SLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
   SYSTEM ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...LEADING TO WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
   
   
   MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE
   SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT EWD AND WEAKEN...WHILE MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
   INCREASE OVER AREAS FROM ERN TX EWD...THOUGH CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE
   HUMIDITIES MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.
   
   ...WRN KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE...
   STRENGTHENING SLY SURFACE WINDS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
   APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
   NEAR 20 TO 25 MPH WILL BE COMMON...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS AS
   TEMPERATURES REACH WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
   ALTHOUGH MOISTURE/HIGHER PWAT AIR WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH FROM THE
   WEST...FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
   UPPER TEENS AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS TO THE E OF THE GREATER MOISTURE
   RETURN. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS ABNORMALLY
   DRY AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED LITTLE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW
   MONTHS. THE CRITICAL AREA MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN SUBSEQUENT
   OUTLOOKS.
   
   ...ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...GULF COAST...
   MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVER AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN
   PLAGUED BY DROUGHT AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED
   AREAS ACROSS ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND ALONG THE GULF
   COAST MAY STILL REPORT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TEENS TO MID
   20S FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S. LIGHT AND
   VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL FIRE CONCERN.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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