Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 081635
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1135 AM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010
   
   VALID 081700Z - 091200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR OK PANHANDLE...WRN KS...CNTRL NEB
   AND FAR S CNTRL SD...
   ...OK PANHANDLE...WRN KS...CNTRL NEB AND FAR S CNTRL SD...
   THE CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN EXTENDED FARTHER NWD THROUGH CNTRL NEB
   INTO FAR S CNTRL SD. CONDITIONS HERE WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ACROSS
   WRN KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE. EXPECT UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
   IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOW RH VALUES FROM 15-20 PERCENT.
   SFC WINDS MAY BE ENHANCED FROM N CNTRL NEB INTO S CNTRL SD DUE TO A
   SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVING EWD INTO CNTRL SD/WRN NEB THIS
   AFTERNOON AND SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE
   ANTICIPATED. ADDITIONALLY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
   UNSTABLE AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LAPSE
   RATES AROUND 8-10 C/KM. THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
   AT LEAST A LOW END CRITICAL THREAT TODAY.
   
   THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
   MADE.
   
   ..STOPPKOTTE.. 10/08/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
   NRN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE THE
   ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE MOVES EWD...EXTENDING FROM A
   SURFACE LOW NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER SWD INTO WRN OK BY EARLY SATURDAY
   MORNING. SLY SURFACE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE
   AFTERNOON...LEADING TO A MARGINAL FIRE THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN
   KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE.
   
   MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGING WILL WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
   STATES...WHILE MOISTURE GRADUALLY BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA.
   HOWEVER...ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
   PERSIST...THOUGH WILL GENERALLY NOT BE AS DRY AS THE PREVIOUS FEW
   DAYS.
   
   ...WRN KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE...
   MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
   LOW AND ASSOCIATED FORECAST SURFACE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS WRN KS AND
   THE OK PANHANDLE...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 15 TO 20 MPH APPEARING
   MORE LIKELY. GIVEN WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW THAN PREVIOUS
   FORECASTS...IT APPEARS THAT HIGHER GUSTS WILL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT
   LIMITED AS DEEPER MIXING OCCURS BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WARM
   TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
   IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS WILL STILL LEAD TO A LOW END CRITICAL
   THREAT IN THESE AREAS.
   
   ...SERN CO...
   A BRIEF/LOCALIZED FIRE THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS SERN CO BY MID
   AFTERNOON AS SLY/SWLY WINDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
   UPPER TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED
   WINDS NEAR 15 TO 20 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TEENS
   WILL BE COMMON. AROUND THIS TIME...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   INITIATE ALONG A STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE CO PLAINS.
   THESE STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE DRY IN NATURE. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT
   IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING...INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF STORMS AND LEADING TO
   MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL IN RESPONSE TO
   THE COLD FRONT AND MERGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE RELATIVELY
   SHORT-LIVED THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS/LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME.
   
   ...ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...GULF COAST...
   MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO IMPROVE OVER AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN
   PLAGUED BY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND DROUGHT RECENTLY...WITH 00Z
   SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWAT GENERALLY ABOVE 0.40 INCH AT THIS TIME.
   MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
   TROUGH TO THE W AND AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVER THE AREA.
   HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THIS SLOW MOISTURE INCREASE...CONDITIONS REMAIN
   DRY...AND LOCALIZED AREAS ACROSS ERN TX...INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
   AND PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST WILL STILL REPORT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
   IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S AND
   LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THE
   OVERALL FIRE CONCERN.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 081757
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1257 PM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST REQUIRED.
   
   ..STOPPKOTTE.. 10/08/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0328 AM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL STALL NEAR THE SD/NEB BORDER. THE ASSOCIATED
   COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND
   WILL EXTEND SWD FROM A SURFACE LOW ROUGHLY NEAR THE SD/MN
   BORDER...INTO ERN NEB/KS AND SWWD THROUGH WRN OK AND THE TX
   PANHANDLE. 
   
   STRONGER UPPER FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO CANADA...WITH THE
   EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WHERE COOL CONDITIONS WILL
   LIMIT THE FIRE THREAT. GIVEN STRONGER WINDS RESIDING WELL NORTH OF
   THE STATES...THE FIRE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE U.S. DESPITE
   LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF STATES.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home