Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 111501
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1001 AM CDT MON OCT 11 2010
   
   VALID 111700Z - 121200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY INTO THE
   BAY AREA OF NRN CA......
   MODIFICATIONS TO THE CRITICAL AREA INCLUDE A NEWD SPATIAL EXTENSION
   TO INCLUDE THE NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND ADJACENT
   FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS. SEVERAL MORNING OBSERVATIONS FROM RDD AND RBL
   /AS WELL AS OTHER HIGHER ELEVATION SITES/ HAVE RECORDED WIND GUSTS
   BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH. WHILE RH VALUES WERE GENERALLY AROUND 20-30
   PERCENT...THESE VALUES WILL FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON /10-15
   PERCENT/ AND GUSTY N TO NELY WINDS /25-40 MPH/ WILL CONTINUE.
   OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WILL BE POOR /30-40 PERCENT/ AND ALTHOUGH WIND
   SPEEDS MAY BE REDUCED SOMEWHAT...THEY WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME GUSTY
   BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
   
   OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH WARM AND
   VERY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION SWD
   THROUGH THE INTERIOR GULF COAST STATES.
   
   ..STOPPKOTTE.. 10/11/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0409 AM CDT MON OCT 11 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NRN CA...EARLY IN THE
   PERIOD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST.  THIS COMBINED WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
   REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH CENTRAL AND SRN CA WILL PRODUCE STRONG
   NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS PTNS NRN CA BY MID AFTERNOON.
   FURTHER SOUTH IN CA...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND EVEN ONSHORE IN
   PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA.
   
   ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A
   STRONG BAND OF MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE THE FIRE
   THREAT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   
   IT WILL CONTINUE WARM AND DRY OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST WHERE FUELS
   REMAIN DRY WITH LOW HUMIDITY IN THE AFTERNOON... HOWEVER...OVERALL
   WIND PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.
   
   UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE SW AND AN UPPER LOW
   THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
   DURING THE PERIOD.
   
   ...WRN-COASTAL PTNS OF NRN CA...
   AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS NRN CA EARLY TODAY...THE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND
   STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NLY TO NELY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND
   CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH 70S AND
   80S AND HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE AND WINDS
   WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH. 
   THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING...
   HOWEVER...HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN LOW WELL INTO TUESDAY.  FUELS ARE
   ALREADY DRY AND FUEL DRYNESS LEVELS WILL INCREASE FURTHER.
   
   ...CNTRL IN...
   STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
   THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S COMBINED AND
   HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON MAY
   PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.  THE
   SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS SHOULD
   DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 111819
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0119 PM CDT MON OCT 11 2010
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY INTO THE BAY
   AREA OF NRN CA...
   ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND ERN BAY AREA...
   CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPERIENCED ON MONDAY AND HAVE
   THEREFORE EXTENDED THE CRITICAL AREA TO INCLUDE THE NRN SACRAMENTO
   VALLEY. ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEY/ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...GUSTY WINDS
   MAY BE SHORTER LIVED ON TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY
   WEAKENS...SHIFTS EWD AND BECOMES ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE
   SIERRAS...GIVING SFC FLOW A MORE NWLY COMPONENT BY AFTERNOON.
   HOWEVER...POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL RESULT IN AREAS
   BEGINNING THE DAY WITH VALUES AROUND 25 PERCENT. RH WILL QUICKLY
   FALL INTO THE 5-15 PERCENT RANGE AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER
   80S/LOW 90S. GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY
   AND DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF EWD SHIFT OF STRONGEST PRESSURE
   GRADIENT...COULD LAST LONGER. FUEL CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BE MORE
   FAVORABLE TUESDAY DUE TO CONSIDERABLE DRYING ON MONDAY.
   
   ..STOPPKOTTE.. 10/11/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0423 AM CDT MON OCT 11 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WRN US THROUGH THE
   PERIOD AND THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE MIDWEST
   WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST US...BRINGING WITH IT SOME
   INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DRY
   SOUTHEAST.
   
   ...WRN-COASTAL PTNS OF NRN CA...
   NLY TO NELY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOME ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH
   THAT TREND MAY BE SLOW...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THE AXIS
   OF AN INVERTED TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN CA.  THE SURFACE
   HIGH BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST US WILL LIKELY KEEP THE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT STRONG TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  IN ADDITION...
   FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY AS THE HUMIDITY LIKELY WILL REMAIN VERY
   LOW IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE DAY.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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