Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 151643
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1143 AM CDT FRI OCT 15 2010
   
   VALID 151700Z - 161200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WRN HALF OF SC...NRN/CNTRL
   GA...NERN AL / EXTREME SWRN NC...
   ONLY APPRECIABLE CHANGE THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS REMOVING THE SEE
   TEXT HIGHLIGHT FOR THE MTNS OF SRN CA.  MORNING GPS PRECIPITABLE
   WATER DATA INDICATE 0.75-1.0 INCH VALUES OR HIGHER ACROSS THE
   REGION.  ADDITIONALLY...ONLY MARGINALLY DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYERS ARE
   DEPICTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE LATEST MODEL RUNS--THUS
   LENDING CONFIDENCE THAT THE RISK FOR FIRE STARTS/GROWTH WILL REMAIN
   LIMITED.  
   
   OVER THE SERN STATES...MORNING WSR-88D PROFILER DATA SHOW 35 KTS AT
   1 KM AGL AT KATL AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SEWD ACROSS
   THE SRN APPALACHIANS.  WITH STRONGER SURFACE HEATING OVER NRN GA
   COMPARED TO AREAS N OVER THE TN VALLEY...EXPECTING A DEEPER/WELL
   MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH. 
   EXTENDED THE CRITICAL AREA INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN NC NEAR THE CLT
   METRO WHERE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW RH/S JUXTAPOSED WITH
   STRONGER WINDS TOWARDS MID-LATE AFTERNOON. 
    
   ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER A SMALL
   PART OF SERN WY...WILL MAINTAIN SEE TEXT DESIGNATION FOR THIS
   REGION.
   
   ..SMITH.. 10/15/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0247 AM CDT FRI OCT 15 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DRY CONTINENTAL NWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE SERN CONUS
   AS A POWERFUL UPPER LOW REMAINS FIXED OVER THE NERN ATLANTIC
   COAST...AND A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES SWD ACROSS THE REGION.
   STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING
   MODERATELY STRONG WINDS TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE
   CAROLINAS...RESULTING IN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. 
   
   ELSEWHERE...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WILL LEAD
   TO PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS HERE...WHILE A WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW
   OVER THE NRN GULF OF CA WILL IMPORT MOISTURE INTO SRN AZ/CA AND
   RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A SFC COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING AN
   UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING COOL CONDITIONS TO THE PAC NW AND
   NRN PLAINS.
   
   ...WRN SC...NRN/CNTRL GA...FAR NERN AL...
   A VERY DRY AIR MASS CURRENTLY FIXED OVER THE SERN CONUS WILL YIELD
   LOWER-MID 20S RH AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S.
   THIS AREA WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONG MID-LEVEL
   FLOW...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED SFC WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20
   MPH /GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH/ AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES
   WELL-MIXED BY LATE-MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
   ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL ACT TO ENHANCE THE
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT...AND COMBINED WITH MODERATELY STRONG WINDS/LOW
   RH...WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...FL PANHANDLE...SRN MS/AL/GA...
   A PLUME OF VERY DRY AIR /CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES LESS THAN 0.3
   INCH PER 00Z REGIONAL RAOBS/ WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER MUCH OF THE
   SOUTHEAST. AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S/80S...LOW RH
   VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS
   THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY...ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS/HIGH KDBI
   VALUES MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS. SUSTAINED
   SFC WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 WILL PRECLUDE A MORE SIGNIFICANT FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT FROM DEVELOPING.
   
   ...MOUNTAINS OF SRN CA...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SRN CA
   /PRIMARILY THE COASTAL RANGE OF ERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY/ AS MID-LEVEL
   MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MEXICAN UPPER LOW IS IMPORTED INTO
   THE REGION. DEEP/DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS WILL ONLY RESULT IN MINIMAL
   PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL AREA FROM BEING REQUIRED.
   
   ...CNTRL AND WRN WY...WRN NEB...
   DEEP-LAYER WLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   PASSES THE N. THIS WILL RESULT IN SFC SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20
   MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A DEEP/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPS. MIN
   RH VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE LOWER-MID TEENS WITHIN A VERY
   DRY AIR MASS. MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS/RH WILL PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE TO A
   CRITICAL AREA ATTM...THOUGH ANTECEDENT DRY FUEL CONDITIONS WILL
   RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 151916
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0216 PM CDT FRI OCT 15 2010
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES NEEDED.
   
   ..SMITH.. 10/15/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0329 AM CDT FRI OCT 15 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION...AS
   AN UPPER LOW SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH TRAVERSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
   FIXED OVER SOUTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH
   PRESSURE...WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS.
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SRN AZ IN PROXIMITY TO
   A STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER SONORA.
   
   ...ERN GULF COAST STATES...
   A PERSISTENT DRY AIR MASS WILL YIELD LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES
   /GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 20S/ ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SFC WINDS
   WILL BE WEAK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE...BUT
   ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS MAY YIELD AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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