Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 201643
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1143 AM CDT WED OCT 20 2010
   
   VALID 201700Z - 211200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL/NRN IND...MICHIANA...AND
   NWRN OH...
   MIDDAY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES SHOW TEMPS
   WARMING INTO THE 60S WITH STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS /REF 16Z KGUS
   19 KT SUSTAINED WIND/.  RECENT KIWX AND KDTX WIND PROFILE DATA SHOW
   30 KTS WSWLY FLOW AT LESS THAN 1 KM AGL.  THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY
   MIX TO THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS AS THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
   HOURS.  LATEST THINKING IS SUSTAINED WINDS MAY BE IN THE 20-25 MPH
   RANGE /HIGHER GUSTS/ ACROSS THE CRITICAL AREA.  AS A RESULT...WILL
   UPGRADE PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL/NRN IND AND NWRN OH INTO A SMALL
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA.  ELSEWHERE...NO CHANGES.
   
   ..SMITH.. 10/20/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CDT WED OCT 20 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE WAVE PATTERN WILL EXIST...WITH AN UPPER
   TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
   INTER-MTN WEST AND PAC NW. A STRONG MID/UPPER JET MAXIMUM WILL DIVE
   SEWD AROUND THE BASE OF THE ERN CONUS TROUGH...BRINGING STRONG NWLY
   WINDS TO THE NRN PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST...AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. A
   SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO
   THE MIDWEST/CNTRL PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...A CUTOFF
   UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A WEAK
   SFC COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN ORIENTED ALONG THE GULF COAST.
   
   ...SRN HALF OF IN...SWRN OH...
   DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
   MID-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST FLOW FIELDS WILL BE
   LOCATED N OF THE AREA /WHERE HIGHER RH WILL ALSO EXIST DUE TO COOLER
   TEMPS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER/...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH
   ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING SFC OBS
   INDICATE A RATHER DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE /SFC DEW POINTS IN THE
   30S/...AND AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 60S...MIN RH BETWEEN 25-30
   PERCENT APPEARS LIKELY. CURRENT POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   WIND/RH MAGNITUDES WILL NOT MEET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   THRESHOLDS...BUT GIVEN ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN IN AND
   SWRN OH...AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST.
   
   ...N-CNTRL AND NERN NEB...
   STRONG NWLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
   SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. WARM SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S
   DEVELOPING IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
   SUPPORT MIN RH VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT AND SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF
   15-20 MPH. THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   SITUATED TO THE NE OF THE AREA...THOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25-30
   MPH MAY OCCUR. MARGINAL WINDS/RH WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL AREA FROM
   BEING REQUIRED ATTM.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 201802
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0102 PM CDT WED OCT 20 2010
   
   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
   
   ONLY CHANGE THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS TO UPGRADE THE VA SHENANDOAH
   VALLEY/BLUE RIDGE VICINITY IN A SEE TEXT HIGHLIGHT.  THIS AREA MAY
   EXPERIENCE LOWER RH /25-30 PERCENT/ FOR A FEW HOURS AS SUSTAINED
   SURFACE WINDS INCREASE AND APPROACH 20 MPH BY EARLY TO
   MID-AFTERNOON.
   
   ..SMITH.. 10/20/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0333 AM CDT WED OCT 20 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE ERN CONUS...WITH A BELT
   OF STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
   INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT
   EWD INTO THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH
   APPROACHES THE PACIFIC COAST. THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE
   DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. AT THE
   SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID-MS RIVER
   VALLEY...WITH AN ANTICYCLONE BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE MIDWEST.
   
   ...SRN IN...SWRN OH...CNTRL KY...
   MODEST RECOVERY OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF A SFC COLD
   FRONT WILL OCCUR...AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE DRY /PWAT VALUES
   AROUND 0.3 INCH/. DESPITE COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...AFTERNOON
   RH IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S. POST-FRONTAL NWLY
   WINDS WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ESTABLISHED AS A SFC ANTICYCLONE BECOMES
   POSITIONED OVER NRN MO. STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW /45-55 KTS AT 700 MB/
   AND MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED WINDS
   AROUND 15-20 MPH. ONGOING DROUGHT/FAVORABLE FUELS OVER THE REGION
   ARE EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE FIRE WEATHER RISK. MARGINALLY LOW RH 
   WILL PRECLUDE AN OUTLOOK UPGRADE ATTM...THOUGH LOCALLY CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS MAY OCCASIONALLY BE OBSERVED.
   
   ...MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST...
   OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT WILL REINFORCE A
   PERSISTENT DRY AIR MASS WHILE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S.
   THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MIN RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
   MID 20S ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM MS EWD INTO SC...INCLUDING THE FL
   PANHANDLE. THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
   SITUATED WELL TO THE N...ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
   MPH MAY STILL DEVELOP COINCIDENT WITH MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER
   MIXING. ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF A
   DRY AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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