Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 211646
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2010
VALID 211700Z - 221200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN 2/3RD IND / FAR ERN IL / MUCH
OF KY / EXTREME SW OH...
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE IN CONJUNCTION WITH MIDDAY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS/LOWER RH ARE
LIKELY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY/BLUE RIDGE
STRADDLING THE WV/VA BORDER REGION AND OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL IND
AND MUCH OF KY. AS A RESULT...HAVE UPGRADED FROM SEE TEXT TO
CRITICAL FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGIONS. THE OH VALLEY CRITICAL
AREA IS BOUND ON THE NERN PORTION TO GENERALLY ALIGN WITH NWLY
TRAJECTORIES DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUD
COVER SHOULD RETARD MORE ROBUST SURFACE HEATING AND THEREBY LIMIT
MAGNITUDE OF MINIMUM RH.
OVER SWRN VA AND THE WRN NC PIEDMONT...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S
RESULTING IN NEAR CRITICAL RH JUXTAPOSED WITH BRISK SUSTAINED WINDS
APPROACHING 20 MPH IN AREAS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPTED TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS REGION WITH A SEE TEXT. ELSEWHERE...FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK
AND NO CHANGES NEEDED.
..SMITH.. 10/21/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0238 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF AN ERN CONUS UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE
OH RIVER VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF A SFC COLD FRONT. DRY OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL ALSO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST...IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER
WEAK SFC COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE GULF COAST. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE NRN ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EWD...WHILE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SRN PLAINS
AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NM.
...FAR SWRN OH...SRN IN...N-CNTRL KY...FAR SERN IL...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS
NWLY WINDS STRENGTHEN IN A DRY POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. STRONG
LOW-LEVEL FLOW /30-40 KTS AT 850 MB/ SHOULD READILY MIX DOWN TO THE
SFC AND RESULT IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING 20 MPH AND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH. CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCIES EXIST BETWEEN FORECAST MODEL
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF DRYING THAT WILL OCCUR IN THE
LOW-LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MIN RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE LOW
20S INTO THE LOW 30S AS SFC TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL /IN THE
50S-60S/. DESPITE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AFTERNOON RH VALUES...RECENT
RAINFALL DATA AND FUEL STATUS INFORMATION INDICATE CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR FIRE IGNITIONS AND SPREADS...WHICH MAY ACT TO ENHANCE
THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
...NRN IN...NWRN OH...
STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN WINDY CONDITIONS. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH WILL BECOME COMMON THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING INCREASES. COOL SFC TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY
YIELD MIN RH VALUES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A
CRITICAL DELINEATION BEING REQUIRED ATTM.
...SHENANDOAH VALLEY OF WRN VA......
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE MORNING.
STRONG W-NWLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE...WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS APPROACHING 15-20 MPH /GUSTS TO 30 MPH/.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S AND SHOULD YIELD
MIN RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S-LOWER 30S. LOCALLY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW HRS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
...SC...GA...ERN AL...FL PANHANDLE...
NWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE A DRY AIR MASS
/CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH/ OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS SFC TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MIN RH IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON...AND MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO
AROUND 10-15 MPH AT TIMES.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 211845
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES NEEDED.
..SMITH.. 10/21/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0305 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS EWD INTO THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND BRING
WARM/MOIST CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE OVER THE WRN
CONUS WHILE A STRONGER UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE NRN CA
COAST. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EWD TOWARDS THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...WHILE A TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING MID/UPPER LEVEL JET SHIFT
INTO THE NERN CONUS. A SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS.
...MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST...
A PERSISTENT DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS
A SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS OVER SRN KY. WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL
YIELD MIN RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S...EXTENDING FROM THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY INTO SC. SFC FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK DUE TO THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC HIGH...BUT ANTECEDENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS
MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...