Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 211646
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1146 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2010
   
   VALID 211700Z - 221200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN 2/3RD IND / FAR ERN IL / MUCH
   OF KY / EXTREME SW OH...
   RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE IN CONJUNCTION WITH MIDDAY SURFACE
   OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS/LOWER RH ARE
   LIKELY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY/BLUE RIDGE
   STRADDLING THE WV/VA BORDER REGION AND OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL IND
   AND MUCH OF KY.  AS A RESULT...HAVE UPGRADED FROM SEE TEXT TO
   CRITICAL FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGIONS.  THE OH VALLEY CRITICAL
   AREA IS BOUND ON THE NERN PORTION TO GENERALLY ALIGN WITH NWLY
   TRAJECTORIES DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUD
   COVER SHOULD RETARD MORE ROBUST SURFACE HEATING AND THEREBY LIMIT
   MAGNITUDE OF MINIMUM RH.  
   
   OVER SWRN VA AND THE WRN NC PIEDMONT...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S
   RESULTING IN NEAR CRITICAL RH JUXTAPOSED WITH BRISK SUSTAINED WINDS
   APPROACHING 20 MPH IN AREAS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  OPTED TO HIGHLIGHT
   THIS REGION WITH A SEE TEXT.  ELSEWHERE...FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK
   AND NO CHANGES NEEDED.
   
   ..SMITH.. 10/21/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0238 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF AN ERN CONUS UPPER
   TROUGH WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE
   OH RIVER VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF A SFC COLD FRONT. DRY OFFSHORE FLOW
   WILL ALSO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST...IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER
   WEAK SFC COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE GULF COAST. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
   THE NRN ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EWD...WHILE SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SRN PLAINS
   AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NM.
   
   ...FAR SWRN OH...SRN IN...N-CNTRL KY...FAR SERN IL...
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS
   NWLY WINDS STRENGTHEN IN A DRY POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. STRONG
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW /30-40 KTS AT 850 MB/ SHOULD READILY MIX DOWN TO THE
   SFC AND RESULT IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING 20 MPH AND GUSTS
   TO 30 MPH. CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCIES EXIST BETWEEN FORECAST MODEL
   GUIDANCE REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF DRYING THAT WILL OCCUR IN THE
   LOW-LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MIN RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE LOW
   20S INTO THE LOW 30S AS SFC TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL /IN THE
   50S-60S/. DESPITE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AFTERNOON RH VALUES...RECENT
   RAINFALL DATA AND FUEL STATUS INFORMATION INDICATE CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR FIRE IGNITIONS AND SPREADS...WHICH MAY ACT TO ENHANCE
   THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...NRN IN...NWRN OH...
   STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL RESULT
   IN WINDY CONDITIONS. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUSTAINED WIND
   SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH WILL BECOME COMMON THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY
   LAYER MIXING INCREASES. COOL SFC TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY
   YIELD MIN RH VALUES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A
   CRITICAL DELINEATION BEING REQUIRED ATTM.
   
   ...SHENANDOAH VALLEY OF WRN VA......
   A SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE MORNING.
   STRONG W-NWLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE...WITH
   SUSTAINED SPEEDS APPROACHING 15-20 MPH /GUSTS TO 30 MPH/.
   TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S AND SHOULD YIELD
   MIN RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S-LOWER 30S. LOCALLY
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW HRS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ...SC...GA...ERN AL...FL PANHANDLE...
   NWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE A DRY AIR MASS
   /CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH/ OVER MUCH OF
   THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS SFC TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
   THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MIN RH IN THE
   UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY
   LATE AFTERNOON...AND MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO
   AROUND 10-15 MPH AT TIMES.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 211845
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0145 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010
   
   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
   
   FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES NEEDED.
   
   ..SMITH.. 10/21/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0305 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS EWD INTO THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND BRING
   WARM/MOIST CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
   REGION. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE OVER THE WRN
   CONUS WHILE A STRONGER UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE NRN CA
   COAST. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EWD TOWARDS THE MS RIVER
   VALLEY...WHILE A TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING MID/UPPER LEVEL JET SHIFT
   INTO THE NERN CONUS. A SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
   THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS.
   
   ...MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST...
   A PERSISTENT DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS
   A SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS OVER SRN KY. WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL
   YIELD MIN RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S...EXTENDING FROM THE
   LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY INTO SC. SFC FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK DUE TO THE
   CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC HIGH...BUT ANTECEDENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS
   MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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