Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 281645
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1145 AM CDT THU OCT 28 2010
   
   VALID 281700Z - 291200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR S-CNTRL/SERN TX...SWRN LA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN WV/MD PANHANDLES...FAR NRN
   VA/S-CNTRL PA...
   ...S-CNTRL/SERN TX...SWRN LA...
   FWD RAOB AT 12Z WAS CHARACTERIZED BY A PWAT VALUE OF 0.15 IN...WHILE
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S F WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
   MUCH OF TX DURING MID-MORNING. THIS AIR MASS WILL AID IN THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF MIN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS MUCH OF
   S-CNTRL/SERN TX AND SWRN LA AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 70S AND
   INTO THE LWR 80S F. MEANWHILE...STRONG POST-FRONTAL SURFACE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT COMBINED WITH 30+ KT N-NELY 850 MB JET WILL LEAD TO THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH OVER MOST OF
   S-CNTRL/SERN TX...WITH LOWER SPEEDS NEAR 15 MPH OVER SWRN LA. ONLY
   CHANGE MADE TO THE CRITICAL AREA WAS TO MODIFY THE LINE NEAR HOUSTON
   IN ORDER TO BETTER REPRESENT THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST OVERNIGHT
   RAINFALL.
   
   ...ERN LA...MUCH OF MS...
   LOW END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN
   LA AND MUCH OF MS THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 15 MPH
   AND RH VALUES FALL TOWARD THE LOW 20S. DESPITE ONGOING DROUGHT
   ACROSS THE REGION...RECENT RAINFALL MAY HAVE RESULTED IN SHORT TERM
   MOISTENING OF FUELS OVER A LARGE AREA...NEGATING THE NEED FOR A
   CRITICAL OUTLOOK.
   
   ...ERN WV/MD PANHANDLES...FAR NRN VA/S-CNTRL PA...
   LOW END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED TO
   THE LEE OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF MINIMAL
   RAINFALL DURING THE LAST WEEK. A DRY AIR MASS /WITH SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOW 30S F/ IS ACCOMPANYING A SECONDARY
   COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   AS THIS TAKES PLACE...WINDS WILL BECOME WLY AND ARE FORECAST TO
   STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 MPH. RH VALUES WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DROP TO 20-25
   PERCENT...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ..GARNER.. 10/28/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0350 AM CDT THU OCT 28 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A RIDGE
   ANCHORING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WHILE A TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD INTO
   THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY FRI. AT THE SURFACE...AN ANTICYCLONE WILL
   BUILD FROM THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES ONTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL AID IN
   ACCELERATING A COLD FRONT OVER SRN TX INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO
   THIS MORNING.
   
   ...S-CNTRL/SERN TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
   RECENT PROFILER/VWP DATA SAMPLED STRONG LOW-LEVEL N/NELYS ACROSS THE
   SRN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THESE WINDS /AROUND 30 TO
   40 MPH AT 850 MB/ WILL PERSIST LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON THAN IN
   PREVIOUS FORECASTS. WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20 MPH
   WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH APPEAR PROBABLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THE
   N/NELY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A VERY DRY AIR INTRUSION /PW VALUES AOB
   0.25 IN/. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE
   80S...RH VALUES WILL BECOME QUITE LOW /FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT/.
   ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE REGION HAS RECEIVED MINIMAL RAINFALL DURING THE
   PAST MONTH /SRN TX/ OR IS EXPERIENCING DROUGHT /SWRN LA/...A CLUSTER
   OF ONGOING TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SERN TX SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE
   THREAT JUST TO THE NE OF HOU.
   
   FARTHER EAST...LOW RH CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT INTO SERN LA/MS.
   HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL NLYS WILL BE WEAKER RELATIVE TO THE CRITICAL
   AREA RESULTING IN MODERATE SURFACE WINDS /NEAR 15 MPH/. IN
   ADDITION...ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD HELP
   LOCALIZE THE MARGINAL THREAT TO THOSE AREAS WHERE RAINFALL REMAINS
   MINIMAL.
   
   ...ERN WV/MD PANHANDLES...FAR NRN VA/S-CNTRL PA...
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL WLYS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING
   AND SHOULD RESULT IN RH VALUES FROM 20 TO 25 PERCENT DEVELOPING BY
   EARLY AFTERNOON...PER 06Z NAM/03Z ETA-BASED SREF MEMBERS. THIS WOULD
   LIKELY BE JUXTAPOSED WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS FROM 15 TO 20 MPH
   AND GUSTS FROM 30 TO 35 MPH. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD RAIN FELL ACROSS
   THE REGION ON TUE...THIS AREA REMAINED RELATIVELY DRIER COMPARED TO
   FARTHER W AND S...RECEIVING AMOUNTS AOB 0.25 TO 0.50 IN. GIVEN THE
   PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT...LOW-END CRITICAL CONDITIONS
   APPEAR PROBABLE.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 281706
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1206 PM CDT THU OCT 28 2010
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL KS...NWRN OK...TX
   PANHANDLE...
   ...CNTRL KS...NWRN OK...TX PANHANDLE...
   LOW END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EVIDENT OVER PORTIONS
   OF CNTRL KS...NWRN OK...AND THE TX PANHANDLE AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT STRENGTHENS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
   SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AOA 30 MPH WILL BE
   POSSIBLE...WHILE A DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS PROMOTES MIN RH VALUES OF
   15-20 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S F.
   
   ...SRN AL/GA...FL PANHANDLE...
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE RH VALUES RANGING FROM
   25-35 PERCENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 MPH...WHICH WOULD FAVOR
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
   ARE CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL AID IN
   MITIGATING A MORE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT ON FRIDAY.
   
   ..GARNER.. 10/28/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0459 AM CDT THU OCT 28 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ALONG THE ROCKIES/HIGH
   PLAINS...WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD INTO CA.
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS NRN NEW
   ENGLAND/CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE N ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...AN
   EXPANSIVE ANTICYCLONE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE TN/LOWER MS
   VALLEY ON FRI AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A LEE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN ALONG
   THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...CNTRL KS...NWRN OK...TX PANHANDLE...
   A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEVELOPING LEE
   TROUGH AND SLOWLY DEPARTING ANTICYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN S/SWLYS FROM
   THE TX PANHANDLE NEWD TOWARDS THE MID-MO VALLEY. LATEST NAM/ECMWF
   AND GFS MOS FORECASTS SUGGEST SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS FROM 20 TO 25
   MPH SHOULD BE COMMON...WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN 12 AND 20
   PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. THE
   MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH SHOULD REMAIN MODEST DUE TO AN ELEVATED
   MIXED LAYER AND LIKELY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS.
   NEVERTHELESS...THE PRESENCE OF THE STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS JUXTAPOSED
   WITH A VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
   
   ...SRN AL/GA...FL PANHANDLE...
   LOW RH SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FRI AFTERNOON WITH VALUES RANGING
   FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
   70S. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...A
   MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED N/NELY
   WINDS FROM 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD TYPICALLY YIELD
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS GIVEN DROUGHT OVER MOST OF THE
   REGION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ON THU WILL LIKELY
   HELP LOCALIZE THE THREAT TO AREAS THAT ONLY RECEIVE LIGHT RAINFALL.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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