Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 281645
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT THU OCT 28 2010
VALID 281700Z - 291200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR S-CNTRL/SERN TX...SWRN LA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN WV/MD PANHANDLES...FAR NRN
VA/S-CNTRL PA...
...S-CNTRL/SERN TX...SWRN LA...
FWD RAOB AT 12Z WAS CHARACTERIZED BY A PWAT VALUE OF 0.15 IN...WHILE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S F WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
MUCH OF TX DURING MID-MORNING. THIS AIR MASS WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MIN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS MUCH OF
S-CNTRL/SERN TX AND SWRN LA AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 70S AND
INTO THE LWR 80S F. MEANWHILE...STRONG POST-FRONTAL SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT COMBINED WITH 30+ KT N-NELY 850 MB JET WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH OVER MOST OF
S-CNTRL/SERN TX...WITH LOWER SPEEDS NEAR 15 MPH OVER SWRN LA. ONLY
CHANGE MADE TO THE CRITICAL AREA WAS TO MODIFY THE LINE NEAR HOUSTON
IN ORDER TO BETTER REPRESENT THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL.
...ERN LA...MUCH OF MS...
LOW END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN
LA AND MUCH OF MS THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 15 MPH
AND RH VALUES FALL TOWARD THE LOW 20S. DESPITE ONGOING DROUGHT
ACROSS THE REGION...RECENT RAINFALL MAY HAVE RESULTED IN SHORT TERM
MOISTENING OF FUELS OVER A LARGE AREA...NEGATING THE NEED FOR A
CRITICAL OUTLOOK.
...ERN WV/MD PANHANDLES...FAR NRN VA/S-CNTRL PA...
LOW END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED TO
THE LEE OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF MINIMAL
RAINFALL DURING THE LAST WEEK. A DRY AIR MASS /WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOW 30S F/ IS ACCOMPANYING A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS THIS TAKES PLACE...WINDS WILL BECOME WLY AND ARE FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 MPH. RH VALUES WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DROP TO 20-25
PERCENT...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
..GARNER.. 10/28/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0350 AM CDT THU OCT 28 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A RIDGE
ANCHORING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WHILE A TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD INTO
THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY FRI. AT THE SURFACE...AN ANTICYCLONE WILL
BUILD FROM THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES ONTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL AID IN
ACCELERATING A COLD FRONT OVER SRN TX INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO
THIS MORNING.
...S-CNTRL/SERN TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
RECENT PROFILER/VWP DATA SAMPLED STRONG LOW-LEVEL N/NELYS ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THESE WINDS /AROUND 30 TO
40 MPH AT 850 MB/ WILL PERSIST LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON THAN IN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH APPEAR PROBABLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THE
N/NELY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A VERY DRY AIR INTRUSION /PW VALUES AOB
0.25 IN/. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE
80S...RH VALUES WILL BECOME QUITE LOW /FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT/.
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE REGION HAS RECEIVED MINIMAL RAINFALL DURING THE
PAST MONTH /SRN TX/ OR IS EXPERIENCING DROUGHT /SWRN LA/...A CLUSTER
OF ONGOING TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SERN TX SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE
THREAT JUST TO THE NE OF HOU.
FARTHER EAST...LOW RH CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT INTO SERN LA/MS.
HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL NLYS WILL BE WEAKER RELATIVE TO THE CRITICAL
AREA RESULTING IN MODERATE SURFACE WINDS /NEAR 15 MPH/. IN
ADDITION...ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD HELP
LOCALIZE THE MARGINAL THREAT TO THOSE AREAS WHERE RAINFALL REMAINS
MINIMAL.
...ERN WV/MD PANHANDLES...FAR NRN VA/S-CNTRL PA...
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WLYS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING
AND SHOULD RESULT IN RH VALUES FROM 20 TO 25 PERCENT DEVELOPING BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...PER 06Z NAM/03Z ETA-BASED SREF MEMBERS. THIS WOULD
LIKELY BE JUXTAPOSED WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS FROM 15 TO 20 MPH
AND GUSTS FROM 30 TO 35 MPH. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD RAIN FELL ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUE...THIS AREA REMAINED RELATIVELY DRIER COMPARED TO
FARTHER W AND S...RECEIVING AMOUNTS AOB 0.25 TO 0.50 IN. GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT...LOW-END CRITICAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR PROBABLE.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 281706
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 PM CDT THU OCT 28 2010
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL KS...NWRN OK...TX
PANHANDLE...
...CNTRL KS...NWRN OK...TX PANHANDLE...
LOW END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EVIDENT OVER PORTIONS
OF CNTRL KS...NWRN OK...AND THE TX PANHANDLE AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AOA 30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WHILE A DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS PROMOTES MIN RH VALUES OF
15-20 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S F.
...SRN AL/GA...FL PANHANDLE...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE RH VALUES RANGING FROM
25-35 PERCENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 MPH...WHICH WOULD FAVOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL AID IN
MITIGATING A MORE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT ON FRIDAY.
..GARNER.. 10/28/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0459 AM CDT THU OCT 28 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ALONG THE ROCKIES/HIGH
PLAINS...WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD INTO CA.
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS NRN NEW
ENGLAND/CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE N ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...AN
EXPANSIVE ANTICYCLONE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE TN/LOWER MS
VALLEY ON FRI AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A LEE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN ALONG
THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.
...CNTRL KS...NWRN OK...TX PANHANDLE...
A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH AND SLOWLY DEPARTING ANTICYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN S/SWLYS FROM
THE TX PANHANDLE NEWD TOWARDS THE MID-MO VALLEY. LATEST NAM/ECMWF
AND GFS MOS FORECASTS SUGGEST SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS FROM 20 TO 25
MPH SHOULD BE COMMON...WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN 12 AND 20
PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. THE
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH SHOULD REMAIN MODEST DUE TO AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER AND LIKELY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS.
NEVERTHELESS...THE PRESENCE OF THE STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS JUXTAPOSED
WITH A VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
...SRN AL/GA...FL PANHANDLE...
LOW RH SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FRI AFTERNOON WITH VALUES RANGING
FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...A
MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED N/NELY
WINDS FROM 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD TYPICALLY YIELD
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS GIVEN DROUGHT OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ON THU WILL LIKELY
HELP LOCALIZE THE THREAT TO AREAS THAT ONLY RECEIVE LIGHT RAINFALL.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...