Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 291613
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1113 AM CDT FRI OCT 29 2010
   
   VALID 291700Z - 301200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR TX PANHANDLE...NWRN OK...CNTRL
   KS...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN WY/N CNTRL CO AND WRN NEB...
   
   ...TX PANHANDLE...NWRN OK...CNTRL KS...
   A LOW END CRITICAL THREAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO
   INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
   DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH AN ELEVATED MIXED
   LAYER WILL GENERALLY LIMIT THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF GUSTS THAT CAN
   REACH THE SURFACE...SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15 TO 25 MPH WILL BE
   POSSIBLE. HAVE TRIMMED THE CRITICAL AREA TO FOCUS PRIMARILY ON AREAS
   WHICH WILL REPORT THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS.
   TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT COOL...WITH EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE
   LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST FEW
   MONTHS WILL ENHANCE FIRE CONCERNS FOR TODAY.
   
   ...ERN WY/N CNTRL CO AND WRN NEB...
   WLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES SWD
   INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...FLATTENING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
   STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE LOW THIS
   AFTERNOON...CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER WRN SD. DOWNSLOPE WLY WINDS NEAR
   15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHILE
   DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL AID IN DRYING AT THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN
   RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. BELOW NORMAL
   RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS AND MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
   WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT...DESPITE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES IN
   THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
   
   ...SRN AL/GA AND FL PANHANDLE...
   TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SRN AL/GA
   AND MID 60S ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...AND ARE EXPECTED
   TO CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. 12Z SOUNDINGS
   ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REFLECT EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS...WITH PWAT
   VALUES GENERALLY BELOW 0.40 INCH. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
   LESS THAN 15 MPH...AN ELEVATED THREAT WILL EXIST AS RELATIVE
   HUMIDITIES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS
   OF SRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE WHERE EXTREME DROUGHT AND HIGH
   KBDI VALUES ARE STILL PERSISTING.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 10/29/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0240 AM CDT FRI OCT 29 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ORIENTED OVER THE ROCKIES/ADJACENT
   HIGH PLAINS TODAY WITH A TROF ALONG BOTH COASTS. AT THE SFC...A
   STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE OH AND LOWER
   MS RIVER VALLEYS. FURTHER WEST...A LOW PRESSURE TROF IS EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
   TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
   PLAINS...WHERE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
   
   ...TX PANHANDLE...NWRN OK...CNTRL KS...
   AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY S/SWLY WINDS
   DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE RELATIVELY
   SHALLOW /850-800 MB/ SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
   AOA 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. A VERY DRY AIR MASS HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR
   SEVERAL DAYS AND MANY AREAS HAVE RECEIVED LITTLE PRECIPITATION THE
   LAST FEW WEEKS /ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL KS/ LEADING TO DRY TO VERY
   DRY FUELS. RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE AS
   AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
   
   ...SRN AL/GA AND FL PANHANDLE...
   A DRY AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE SERN CONUS BRINGING LOW
   RH CONDITIONS WITH VALUES IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE. NORTHERLY SFC
   SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 MPH WILL ALLOW AND ELEVATED FIRE
   THREAT TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...RECENT RAINFALL AND COOL TEMPERATURES
   IN THE 60S WILL MITIGATE THE OVERALL THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 291835
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0135 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2010
   
   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
   
   AN UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING SEWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD
   TO INCREASING WLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY...WITH SWLY WINDS
   AT THE SURFACE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
   DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE FORECASTS INDICATE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS NEAR
   20 MPH...AND DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW MIXING HEIGHTS NEAR 2000 TO 3000
   FT...STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL STILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL
   STRONG GUSTS AT THE SURFACE. BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL AND SEVERE TO
   EXTREME DROUGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED FIRE
   THREAT. AN UPGRADE TO CRITICAL MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT
   OUTLOOKS IF RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS APPEAR LOWER.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 10/29/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0240 AM CDT FRI OCT 29 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AS UPPER
   LOW OVER SERN CANADA STRENGTHENS AND FLATTENS UPPER RIDGE. A STRONG
   SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW A DRY AIR MASS TO REMAIN OVER THE SERN STATES
   WHILE AN INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE MID MS VALLEY
   INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FLOW.
   
   ...LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
   SWLY SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED
   WINDS AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTS AOA 25 MPH. DESPITE COOL TEMPERATURES
   IN THE 60S...RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 25-35 PERCENT...RESULTING
   IN AN ELEVATED FIRE THREAT. RECENT RAINFALL WILL HELP TEMPER THE
   OVERALL THREAT.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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