Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 291613
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT FRI OCT 29 2010
VALID 291700Z - 301200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR TX PANHANDLE...NWRN OK...CNTRL
KS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN WY/N CNTRL CO AND WRN NEB...
...TX PANHANDLE...NWRN OK...CNTRL KS...
A LOW END CRITICAL THREAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER WILL GENERALLY LIMIT THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF GUSTS THAT CAN
REACH THE SURFACE...SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15 TO 25 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE TRIMMED THE CRITICAL AREA TO FOCUS PRIMARILY ON AREAS
WHICH WILL REPORT THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT COOL...WITH EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST FEW
MONTHS WILL ENHANCE FIRE CONCERNS FOR TODAY.
...ERN WY/N CNTRL CO AND WRN NEB...
WLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES SWD
INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...FLATTENING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE LOW THIS
AFTERNOON...CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER WRN SD. DOWNSLOPE WLY WINDS NEAR
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHILE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL AID IN DRYING AT THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS AND MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT...DESPITE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
...SRN AL/GA AND FL PANHANDLE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SRN AL/GA
AND MID 60S ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...AND ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. 12Z SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REFLECT EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS...WITH PWAT
VALUES GENERALLY BELOW 0.40 INCH. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN 15 MPH...AN ELEVATED THREAT WILL EXIST AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS
OF SRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE WHERE EXTREME DROUGHT AND HIGH
KBDI VALUES ARE STILL PERSISTING.
..HURLBUT.. 10/29/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0240 AM CDT FRI OCT 29 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ORIENTED OVER THE ROCKIES/ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS TODAY WITH A TROF ALONG BOTH COASTS. AT THE SFC...A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE OH AND LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEYS. FURTHER WEST...A LOW PRESSURE TROF IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...WHERE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
...TX PANHANDLE...NWRN OK...CNTRL KS...
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY S/SWLY WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE RELATIVELY
SHALLOW /850-800 MB/ SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AOA 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. A VERY DRY AIR MASS HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AND MANY AREAS HAVE RECEIVED LITTLE PRECIPITATION THE
LAST FEW WEEKS /ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL KS/ LEADING TO DRY TO VERY
DRY FUELS. RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE AS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
...SRN AL/GA AND FL PANHANDLE...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE SERN CONUS BRINGING LOW
RH CONDITIONS WITH VALUES IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE. NORTHERLY SFC
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 MPH WILL ALLOW AND ELEVATED FIRE
THREAT TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...RECENT RAINFALL AND COOL TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S WILL MITIGATE THE OVERALL THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 291835
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0135 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2010
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
AN UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING SEWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING WLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY...WITH SWLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE FORECASTS INDICATE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS NEAR
20 MPH...AND DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW MIXING HEIGHTS NEAR 2000 TO 3000
FT...STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL STILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL
STRONG GUSTS AT THE SURFACE. BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL AND SEVERE TO
EXTREME DROUGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED FIRE
THREAT. AN UPGRADE TO CRITICAL MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT
OUTLOOKS IF RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS APPEAR LOWER.
..HURLBUT.. 10/29/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0240 AM CDT FRI OCT 29 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AS UPPER
LOW OVER SERN CANADA STRENGTHENS AND FLATTENS UPPER RIDGE. A STRONG
SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW A DRY AIR MASS TO REMAIN OVER THE SERN STATES
WHILE AN INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE MID MS VALLEY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FLOW.
...LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
SWLY SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTS AOA 25 MPH. DESPITE COOL TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S...RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 25-35 PERCENT...RESULTING
IN AN ELEVATED FIRE THREAT. RECENT RAINFALL WILL HELP TEMPER THE
OVERALL THREAT.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...