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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 291634
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1034 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2011
   
   VALID 291700Z - 301200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   ...PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   FEW CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING CRITICAL AREA OVER THE
   TRANS-PECOS/PERMIAN BASIN REGION OF FAR WRN TX AND SERN NM. A
   WARM/DRY DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MIN RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE UPPER
   SINGLE DIGITS. MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT
   THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WLY/S /AROUND 20-30 KT AT 700 MB/ AND A
   STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
   OVER THE TX PANHANDLE...WILL FAVOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS UP TO 20-25
   MPH. THESE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ONGOING DROUGHT WILL YIELD A
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CRITICAL AREA...AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL
   RANGE FROM 8-15 PERCENT OVER WRN-SWRN-CNTRL OK...WRN-NWRN TX /AND
   THE PANHANDLE/ AND ERN NM. THOUGH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST
   TO BE SUB-CRITICAL /GENERALLY AOB 15 MPH/...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY GIVEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOW RH...AND
   DRY FUELS.
   
   ..GARNER.. 01/29/2011
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0233 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2011/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL CROSS
   THE NRN SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALS THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL
   EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT EMERGES OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
   LATER TODAY. DEEP-LAYER ASCENT IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE
   DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF A SFC LOW IN THE LEE OF THE SRN
   ROCKIES.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL
   SUPPORT MIXING HEIGHTS GENERALLY AOA 5000 FEET AGL PER NAM/GFS
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ALLOWING STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW TO
   MIX TO THE SFC. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE INCREASING PRESSURE
   GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE SFC LOW TO SUPPORT W-SWLY TO WLY WINDS OF 20
   TO 25 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   TRANS-PECOS AND PERMIAN BASIN OF FAR WRN TX AND EXTREME SERN NM.
   MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR AFTERNOON RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE 8 TO 13
   PERCENT RANGE. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH...ALONG WITH
   MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
   
   FARTHER NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS OF ERN NM AND NWRN TX
   INTO SWRN OK...MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 8 TO 15
   PERCENT. HOWEVER...THE WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PROXIMITY TO THE
   CENTER OF THE SFC LOW WILL ONLY SUPPORT MODERATE WINDS OF 10 TO 20
   MPH.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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