Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
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FNUS21 KWNS 291634
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1034 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2011
VALID 291700Z - 301200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
...PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
FEW CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING CRITICAL AREA OVER THE
TRANS-PECOS/PERMIAN BASIN REGION OF FAR WRN TX AND SERN NM. A
WARM/DRY DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MIN RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS. MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WLY/S /AROUND 20-30 KT AT 700 MB/ AND A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE TX PANHANDLE...WILL FAVOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS UP TO 20-25
MPH. THESE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ONGOING DROUGHT WILL YIELD A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CRITICAL AREA...AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 8-15 PERCENT OVER WRN-SWRN-CNTRL OK...WRN-NWRN TX /AND
THE PANHANDLE/ AND ERN NM. THOUGH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE SUB-CRITICAL /GENERALLY AOB 15 MPH/...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY GIVEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOW RH...AND
DRY FUELS.
..GARNER.. 01/29/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0233 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2011/
...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL CROSS
THE NRN SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALS THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL
EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT EMERGES OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
LATER TODAY. DEEP-LAYER ASCENT IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF A SFC LOW IN THE LEE OF THE SRN
ROCKIES.
...PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL
SUPPORT MIXING HEIGHTS GENERALLY AOA 5000 FEET AGL PER NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ALLOWING STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW TO
MIX TO THE SFC. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE SFC LOW TO SUPPORT W-SWLY TO WLY WINDS OF 20
TO 25 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
TRANS-PECOS AND PERMIAN BASIN OF FAR WRN TX AND EXTREME SERN NM.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR AFTERNOON RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE 8 TO 13
PERCENT RANGE. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH...ALONG WITH
MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FARTHER NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS OF ERN NM AND NWRN TX
INTO SWRN OK...MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 8 TO 15
PERCENT. HOWEVER...THE WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PROXIMITY TO THE
CENTER OF THE SFC LOW WILL ONLY SUPPORT MODERATE WINDS OF 10 TO 20
MPH.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...