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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 260949
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0349 AM CST SAT FEB 26 2011
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN NM...FAR WRN
   TX...THE TX PANHANDLE...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN NM...SERN CO...SWRN KS...WRN
   OK/TX AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
   EVENT WILL UNFOLD SUNDAY. A POWERFUL UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
   THE SOUTHWEST PROGRESSES ENEWD TO THE OZARK PLATEAU OVERNIGHT.
   STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS IN EXCESS OF 120 MPH AT 500 MB/80 MPH AT 700
   MB WILL OVERSPREAD ERN NM INTO WRN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON...LEADING
   TO STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS. CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER SERN
   CO...WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING EWD TO THE WRN KS/OK BORDERS
   AND A DRYLINE GRADUALLY MIXING EWD OVER WRN OK/TX BY EVENING.
   MEANWHILE...A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS
   EWD...CONVERGING WITH THE DRYLINE BY LATE EVENING AND RACING EWD
   TOWARDS THE MS VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY.
   
   ...SERN NM...FAR WRN TX...THE TX PANHANDLE...
   AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR PORTIONS OF SERN
   NM INTO PORTIONS OF FAR WRN TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE STRONG
   SUSTAINED SWLY SURFACE WINDS NEAR 30 TO 45 MPH WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON. AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN DURING THE
   AFTERNOON...DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW THE TRANSPORT OF STRONGER 700 MB
   WINDS TO THE SURFACE...WITH SUBSTANTIAL GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH POSSIBLE.
   WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO WLY THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SPEEDS
   DECREASING TO NEAR 20 MPH BY LATE EVENING/AFTER DARK. WINDS WILL
   DECREASE THEREAFTER AND SHIFT TO NWLY OVERNIGHT.
   
   THE GREATEST DURATION OF CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
   STRONG WINDS APPEARS LIKELY FROM FAR WRN TX/SERN NM NEWD INTO THE TX
   PANHANDLE...WITH A WSWWD EXPANSION POSSIBLE SHOULD THE TIMING OF THE
   COLD FRONT BE SLOWER. OTHERWISE...RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL BE
   FASTEST ON THE WRN PORTION OF THE EXTREME WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
   FALL FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. FARTHER E...LONG DURATIONS OF
   RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS...TO POSSIBLE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
   APPEARS PROBABLE AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 60S N TO LOWER 80S
   S.
   
   ...SERN NM...SERN CO...SWRN KS...WRN OK/TX AND THE OK/TX
   PANHANDLES...
   SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL...UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS.
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF OVER PORTIONS OF ERN NM AND
   FAR WRN TX AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LEADS TO FALLING TEMPERATURES
   AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES BY MID AFTERNOON.
   HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 TO 40 MPH...GUSTS TO NEAR 50
   MPH...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER TEENS CAN BE ANTICIPATED
   BEFORE THIS OCCURS. ON THE ERN EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL...00Z
   DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE FORECASTS HAVE TRENDED WWD WITH THE DRYLINE
   ORIENTATION BY AFTERNOON...WITH DEEPER MIXING OVER WRN OK INTO
   PERHAPS CNTRL TX NOT OCCURRING UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
   THE THREAT OF CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD PERSIST INTO
   THE EVENING/AFTER SUNSET. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE POTENTIAL
   FOR A WWD OR EWD SHIFT IN THE CRITICAL DELINEATION IS STILL POSSIBLE
   DEPENDING ON THE DRYLINE ORIENTATION IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 02/26/2011
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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