Storm Prediction Center
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 101949
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0149 PM CST THU MAR 10 2011
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR E-CNTRL NM / PORTIONS OF TX
   PANHANDLE / WRN N TX / SWRN OK...
   ...E-CNTRL NM / PORTIONS OF TX PANHANDLE / WRN N TX / WRN OK...
   CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A CORRIDOR OF STRONG WINDS
   /20-25 MPH GUSTING 35-40 MPH/ AND LOW RH VALUES /5 PERCENT WEST TO
   15 PERCENT EAST/ TO ALIGN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
   AFTERNOON FROM E-CNTRL NM INTO WRN OK/WRN N TX. THE CRITICAL AREA
   HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY E TO INCLUDE MORE OF WRN OK AND S INTO
   PORTIONS OF WRN N TX. ADDITIONALLY...THE CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN
   TRIMMED SWD TO REMOVE SERN CO/SWRN KS...THE OK PANHANDLE AND THE FAR
   NRN TX PANHANDLE. THAT AREA AS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SEE TEXT AREA.
   FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THE CRITICAL AREA...PLEASE REFER TO
   THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK BELOW. THESE CHANGES ARE BASED ON A FASTER AND
   MORE SLY TREND IN SFC LOW/TROUGH POSITION OVER SERN CO INTO THE TX
   PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ...SERN CO / SWRN KS / OK AND NRN TX PANHANDLES...
   THIS REGION HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED FROM THE PREVIOUS CRITICAL AREA TO A
   SEE TEXT. THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL TREND HAS SHOWN A FAST E/SEWD
   TRACK WITH SFC LOW/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH THE LOW LOCATED OVER SERN
   CO BY 18Z AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 00Z. WITH STRONG SFC HIGH
   PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS WOULD LEAD TO STRONG SFC
   PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OK AND N TX. ADDITIONALLY...STRONGEST
   850-700 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD E OF THE REGION BY 18Z.
   THEREFORE...DESPITE WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
   AND RH VALUES NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS /AROUND 15-20 PERCENT/...WIND
   SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BE AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS PERHAPS TO
   25 MPH.  THEREFORE...THE DOWNGRADE TO SEE TEXT HAS BEEN MADE.
   
   ...N-CNTRL TX / EDWARDS PLATEAU / GUADALUPE MTNS...
   NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY AND
   WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH
   APPROACHING SFC LOW. AT THIS TIME HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE SEE TEXT
   AREA AS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO DEGREE OF HIGH LEVEL
   CLOUDINESS AND HOW MUCH THIS WILL LIMIT DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
   AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS OUTLOOK. FURTHER WEST NEAR THE GUADALUPE
   MTNS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS.
   HOWEVER...THE DURATION MAY BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL THEREFORE
   CONTINUE THE SEE TEXT IN THIS AREA AS WELL. 
   
   ...NERN CO FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...
   NO CHANGES REQUIRED.
   
   ...FL...
   NO CHANGES REQUIRED.
   
   ..STOPPKOTTE.. 03/10/2011
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0348 AM CST THU MAR 10 2011/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND WRN
   ATLANTIC. SUBSIDENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT IN ITS WAKE WILL SUPPORT DRIER
   AIR INFILTRATING THE SERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE
   NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY REGION. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE
   CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE DAY AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS
   FROM EARLY EVENING ONWARD...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SHIFTING TO NORTH TO
   NORTHEAST IN ITS WAKE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL
   WLY FLOW IN THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC PREFRONTAL TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE CNTRL
   ROCKIES...WHICH WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH THE DAY.
   
   ...ERN NM/WRN TX/WRN OK/FAR SERN CO/FAR SWRN KS...
   ACROSS THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES...FAR WRN OK...NERN NM...FAR SERN
   CO...AND FAR SWRN KS...A CRITICAL AREA HAD BEEN DELINEATED. ACROSS
   THIS AREA...WINDS WILL VEER FROM SWLY TO NWLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
   PREFRONTAL TROUGH AXIS...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND
   GUSTS REACHING 3O TO 35 MPH ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL OCCUR AS
   TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES...ALLOWING MIXED
   LAYERS TO DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW TO
   BECOME REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED BY
   THE TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC PREFRONTAL TROUGH
   AND A BROAD ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO.
   WITHOUT ANY MOISTURE RETURN...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
   THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WEST TO THE TEENS EAST. THESE DRY CONDITIONS
   WILL BE SUPPORTED BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE ROCKIES. GIVEN THESE
   FACTORS...AND BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION HAVING OCCURRED DURING THE
   PAST ONE TO TWO WEEKS IN MANY AREAS...THE CRITICAL AREA IS BEING
   MAINTAINED.
   
   THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE NRN EXTENT OF THE
   CRITICAL AREA ACROSS SWRN KS...WHERE THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
   WINDS MAY BE RELATIVELY WEAKER IN THE VICINITY OF THE AXIS OF THE
   PREFRONTAL TROUGH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THIS REGION WILL BE IN
   CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE TRAJECTORY OF THE MID-LEVEL WIND SPEED
   MAXIMUM...NO ADJUSTMENTS ARE BEING MADE TO THE CRITICAL AREA.
   
   THERE MAY ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO EXTEND TO
   THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CURRENT CRITICAL AREA...ESPECIALLY FARTHER
   EAST INTO WRN OK AND PORTIONS OF THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF TX...WRN
   SECTIONS OF N-CNTRL TX...AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. HOWEVER...IN THIS
   REGION...MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST WITH REGARD TO HOW LOW RH VALUES
   WILL BECOME...AND...TO SOME EXTENT...HOW STRONG THE SFC PRESSURE
   GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED WINDS WILL BE. THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL
   FOR HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL...PREVENTING
   TEMPERATURES FROM BEING SUFFICIENTLY WARM FOR RH VALUES TO FALL
   BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR A SUBSTANTIAL LENGTH OF TIME. CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS COULD ALSO MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
   SERN NM AND FAR WRN TX...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
   HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE DURATION OF
   CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS...GIVEN THAT THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW
   WILL BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH. DUE TO THESE CONCERNS...ANY
   POSSIBLE EWD OR SWD EXPANSION TO THE CRITICAL AREA WILL BE DEFERRED
   TO LATER OUTLOOKS.
   
   ...NERN CO FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...
   WLY TO NWLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING 45 MPH ARE
   EXPECTED...AS THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW MOVES ACROSS
   THE REGION. THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE FLOW WILL OFFSET COLD AIR
   ADVECTION TO SOME EXTENT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH
   TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO THE 60S AND MINIMUM RH
   VALUES FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT. THESE FACTORS COULD ELEVATE FIRE
   WEATHER CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS AROUND THE
   DENVER...BOULDER...AND FORT COLLINS AREAS...AS WELL AS THE
   IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT PLAINS OF NERN CO...WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS
   BEEN BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PAST ONE TO TWO WEEKS. HOWEVER...IN THE
   ABSENCE OF WARMER TEMPERATURES...RH VALUES ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED TO
   REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT. WHILE BRIEFLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS CANNOT
   ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT...THE SHORT DURATION PRECLUDES CRITICAL
   DELINEATION AT THIS TIME. SIMILAR WINDS AND RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED
   FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NERN CO...THOUGH PRECIPITATION IN
   THIS REGION HAS BEEN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PAST ONE TO TWO WEEKS
   IN MANY AREAS...FURTHER MITIGATING THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
   
   ...MUCH OF FL...
   RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE
   30S...LOWEST OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS...AS A DRY AIR MASS INFILTRATES
   FLORIDA WITH WLY TO NWLY WINDS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THE WEAKENING
   SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED WIND
   SPEEDS AOB 10 MPH...PRECLUDING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WIND-DRIVEN FIRE
   THREAT.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home