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FNUS22 KWNS 101949
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CST THU MAR 10 2011
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR E-CNTRL NM / PORTIONS OF TX
PANHANDLE / WRN N TX / SWRN OK...
...E-CNTRL NM / PORTIONS OF TX PANHANDLE / WRN N TX / WRN OK...
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A CORRIDOR OF STRONG WINDS
/20-25 MPH GUSTING 35-40 MPH/ AND LOW RH VALUES /5 PERCENT WEST TO
15 PERCENT EAST/ TO ALIGN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM E-CNTRL NM INTO WRN OK/WRN N TX. THE CRITICAL AREA
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY E TO INCLUDE MORE OF WRN OK AND S INTO
PORTIONS OF WRN N TX. ADDITIONALLY...THE CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN
TRIMMED SWD TO REMOVE SERN CO/SWRN KS...THE OK PANHANDLE AND THE FAR
NRN TX PANHANDLE. THAT AREA AS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SEE TEXT AREA.
FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THE CRITICAL AREA...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK BELOW. THESE CHANGES ARE BASED ON A FASTER AND
MORE SLY TREND IN SFC LOW/TROUGH POSITION OVER SERN CO INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
...SERN CO / SWRN KS / OK AND NRN TX PANHANDLES...
THIS REGION HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED FROM THE PREVIOUS CRITICAL AREA TO A
SEE TEXT. THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL TREND HAS SHOWN A FAST E/SEWD
TRACK WITH SFC LOW/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH THE LOW LOCATED OVER SERN
CO BY 18Z AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 00Z. WITH STRONG SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS WOULD LEAD TO STRONG SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OK AND N TX. ADDITIONALLY...STRONGEST
850-700 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD E OF THE REGION BY 18Z.
THEREFORE...DESPITE WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
AND RH VALUES NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS /AROUND 15-20 PERCENT/...WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BE AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS PERHAPS TO
25 MPH. THEREFORE...THE DOWNGRADE TO SEE TEXT HAS BEEN MADE.
...N-CNTRL TX / EDWARDS PLATEAU / GUADALUPE MTNS...
NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH
APPROACHING SFC LOW. AT THIS TIME HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE SEE TEXT
AREA AS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO DEGREE OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND HOW MUCH THIS WILL LIMIT DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS OUTLOOK. FURTHER WEST NEAR THE GUADALUPE
MTNS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...THE DURATION MAY BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE THE SEE TEXT IN THIS AREA AS WELL.
...NERN CO FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...
NO CHANGES REQUIRED.
...FL...
NO CHANGES REQUIRED.
..STOPPKOTTE.. 03/10/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0348 AM CST THU MAR 10 2011/
...SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND WRN
ATLANTIC. SUBSIDENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT IN ITS WAKE WILL SUPPORT DRIER
AIR INFILTRATING THE SERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE
CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE DAY AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS
FROM EARLY EVENING ONWARD...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SHIFTING TO NORTH TO
NORTHEAST IN ITS WAKE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL
WLY FLOW IN THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC PREFRONTAL TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE CNTRL
ROCKIES...WHICH WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH THE DAY.
...ERN NM/WRN TX/WRN OK/FAR SERN CO/FAR SWRN KS...
ACROSS THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES...FAR WRN OK...NERN NM...FAR SERN
CO...AND FAR SWRN KS...A CRITICAL AREA HAD BEEN DELINEATED. ACROSS
THIS AREA...WINDS WILL VEER FROM SWLY TO NWLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH AXIS...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND
GUSTS REACHING 3O TO 35 MPH ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL OCCUR AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES...ALLOWING MIXED
LAYERS TO DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW TO
BECOME REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED BY
THE TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC PREFRONTAL TROUGH
AND A BROAD ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO.
WITHOUT ANY MOISTURE RETURN...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WEST TO THE TEENS EAST. THESE DRY CONDITIONS
WILL BE SUPPORTED BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE ROCKIES. GIVEN THESE
FACTORS...AND BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION HAVING OCCURRED DURING THE
PAST ONE TO TWO WEEKS IN MANY AREAS...THE CRITICAL AREA IS BEING
MAINTAINED.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE NRN EXTENT OF THE
CRITICAL AREA ACROSS SWRN KS...WHERE THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS MAY BE RELATIVELY WEAKER IN THE VICINITY OF THE AXIS OF THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THIS REGION WILL BE IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE TRAJECTORY OF THE MID-LEVEL WIND SPEED
MAXIMUM...NO ADJUSTMENTS ARE BEING MADE TO THE CRITICAL AREA.
THERE MAY ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO EXTEND TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CURRENT CRITICAL AREA...ESPECIALLY FARTHER
EAST INTO WRN OK AND PORTIONS OF THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF TX...WRN
SECTIONS OF N-CNTRL TX...AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. HOWEVER...IN THIS
REGION...MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST WITH REGARD TO HOW LOW RH VALUES
WILL BECOME...AND...TO SOME EXTENT...HOW STRONG THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED WINDS WILL BE. THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL...PREVENTING
TEMPERATURES FROM BEING SUFFICIENTLY WARM FOR RH VALUES TO FALL
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR A SUBSTANTIAL LENGTH OF TIME. CRITICAL
CONDITIONS COULD ALSO MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
SERN NM AND FAR WRN TX...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE DURATION OF
CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS...GIVEN THAT THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH. DUE TO THESE CONCERNS...ANY
POSSIBLE EWD OR SWD EXPANSION TO THE CRITICAL AREA WILL BE DEFERRED
TO LATER OUTLOOKS.
...NERN CO FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...
WLY TO NWLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED...AS THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE FLOW WILL OFFSET COLD AIR
ADVECTION TO SOME EXTENT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO THE 60S AND MINIMUM RH
VALUES FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT. THESE FACTORS COULD ELEVATE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS AROUND THE
DENVER...BOULDER...AND FORT COLLINS AREAS...AS WELL AS THE
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT PLAINS OF NERN CO...WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS
BEEN BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PAST ONE TO TWO WEEKS. HOWEVER...IN THE
ABSENCE OF WARMER TEMPERATURES...RH VALUES ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT. WHILE BRIEFLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS CANNOT
ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT...THE SHORT DURATION PRECLUDES CRITICAL
DELINEATION AT THIS TIME. SIMILAR WINDS AND RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED
FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NERN CO...THOUGH PRECIPITATION IN
THIS REGION HAS BEEN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PAST ONE TO TWO WEEKS
IN MANY AREAS...FURTHER MITIGATING THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
...MUCH OF FL...
RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE
30S...LOWEST OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS...AS A DRY AIR MASS INFILTRATES
FLORIDA WITH WLY TO NWLY WINDS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THE WEAKENING
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS AOB 10 MPH...PRECLUDING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WIND-DRIVEN FIRE
THREAT.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...