Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 150740
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR TX/OK PANHANDLES...SWRN
OK...N CNTRL TX...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN CO...TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN
OK...MUCH OF TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CNTRL KS WILL SLOWLY EJECT ENEWD TO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY PROGRESSES EWD TO THE OH
VALLEY...EXTENDING SWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE WRN FL
PANHANDLE LATE IN THE PERIOD. EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX BY EVENING AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW PROGRESSES FARTHER ENEWD.
...TX/OK PANHANDLES...SWRN OK...N CNTRL TX...
00Z SOUNDINGS AT MIDLAND AND AMARILLO TX REFLECT A PRE-EXISTING DRY
AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY EXTREMELY DRY LOW LEVELS AND PWAT LESS
THAN 0.25 INCH. 07Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE SLOW TO RECOVER ACROSS MUCH OF TX WHERE COLDER AIR HAS NOT YET
DEVELOPED SWD...WHILE CONVECTION/HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
DEVELOPED EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS IS RESULTING IN A
CONTINUATION OF CURED/DRY FUELS FOR MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS...WHERE
EXTREME DROUGHT IS PERSISTING.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL QUICKLY PLUMMET AFTER SUNRISE.
NWLY/POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL GENERALLY LEAD TO COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...THOUGH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES TO MID 70S FARTHER S OVER N
CNTRL TX SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. HOWEVER...COLDER THAN FORECAST
TEMPERATURES WOULD LEAD TO PERHAPS MORE MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME.
HOWEVER...AN UPGRADE TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL STILL APPEARS WARRANTED
DESPITE THE POTENTIAL OF MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...GIVEN
ANTECEDENT DRYNESS...ONGOING FIRES...AND MAGNITUDE OF FORECAST
WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 25 TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS AOA 50
TO 60 MPH. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EJECT EWD...THE
STRONGEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PROGRESS
EWD AS WELL...ALLOWING SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS TO DECREASE OVER THE
EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA BY EVENING.
...ERN CO...TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN KS/OK...MUCH OF TX...
SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL...STRONG NLY/NWLY WINDS SIMILAR
TO THE EXTREME AREA /SUSTAINED 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS AOA 50 MPH/
WILL BE COMMON ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN CO...SWRN KS...THE ERN OK
PANHANDLE...AND WRN OK. GIVEN EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND STRONG
WINDS...AN ENHANCED THREAT WILL EXIST...THOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL BE MARGINAL /NEAR 15 TO 25 PERCENT/. OVER PORTIONS OF THE WRN
OK/TX PANHANDLES AND MUCH OF WRN/CNTRL TX...SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20
TO 25 MPH WILL ALIGN WITH UPPER SINGLE DIGIT TO LOWER TEEN RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BE MORE MARGINAL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CNTRL TX...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOWER
80S.
..HURLBUT.. 04/15/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...