Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 260840
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN NM
INTO WRN TX...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL/SERN
AZ...PORTIONS OF CNTRL NM...MUCH OF WRN TX INTO CNTRL TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM DIVING SEWD OVER THE WRN
CONUS...AS DEPICTED IN RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL CONTINUE TO
CARVE OUT A LARGE...DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL AND WRN CONUS.
INTENSE DEEP-LAYER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET /500-MB
AND 700-MB SPEEDS AOA 80 MPH AND 50 MPH...RESPECTIVELY/ WILL
TRAVERSE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT EWD...A SFC LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN IN THE LEE OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES OVER SERN CO. THE LOW
WILL RIDE ALONG A FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...INITIALLY
TAKING AN E-SEWD TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...AND THEN
MOVING EWD IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER...BEFORE MOVING E-NEWD
INTO SWRN AR LATE TONIGHT. DRY TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND TO THE WEST OF A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD
FROM THE FRONT OVER CNTRL TX. THE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO SURGE EWD
TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL TX. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS...WITH AN EMBEDDED AREA OF
EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SRN PLAINS. ALSO OF NOTE...ANY ONGOING FIRES ACROSS THE
CRITICAL AND EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREAS OVER TX AND ERN NM WILL BE
IMPACTED BY A WIND SHIFT TO NWLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN NM INTO WRN TX...
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE W/SW OF THE SFC LOW IS FORECAST
TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED WLY WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS CNTRL NM INTO
ADJACENT AREAS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...AND INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO
THE 90S FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SRN NM AND PORTIONS OF FAR SWRN TX. IN
RESPONSE...MIXED-LAYER HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TO AOA 7500 FT AGL IN
MANY AREAS...ALLOWING THE VERY STRONG FLOW ALOFT TO BE MANIFESTED AT
THE SFC. AS SUCH...GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 40 TO 50 MPH. EVEN
STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN NM
AND FAR WRN TX /ESPECIALLY OVER THE SACRAMENTO AND GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS/. RH VALUES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO FALL TO 5 TO 10
PERCENT...EXCEPT TO 8 TO 12 PERCENT ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE TX
SOUTH PLAINS...WITH DRYING EFFECTS SUPPORTED BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF
THE SRN ROCKIES IN SOME AREAS. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...AND THE SEVERE
TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT IN PLACE...EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
...PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL/SERN AZ...PORTIONS OF CNTRL NM...MUCH OF WRN
TX INTO CNTRL TX...
SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY FROM 20 TO 30 MPH AND
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH. WIND DIRECTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WLY TO
W-NWLY ACROSS THE WRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CRITICAL AREA...AND W-SWLY
TO WLY ACROSS THE ERN ONE-THIRD OF THE CRITICAL AREA. THESE STRONG
WINDS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE GENERALLY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND VERTICAL MIXING /MIXED-LAYER HEIGHTS AOA 7500 FT AGL IN
MANY AREAS/ INTO THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS...AS TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE CRITICAL AREA
AND INTO THE 80S AND 90S ELSEWHERE.
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL TX WITHIN THE CRITICAL AREA...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAKER...SUPPORTING
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AT THE LOWER END OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RANGE.
HOWEVER...THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH A THERMAL AXIS
SOUTH OF THE LOW...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S SUPPORTING
ESPECIALLY DEEP MIXING /MIXED-LAYER HEIGHTS AOA 9000 FT AGL/ INTO
THE STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW. THIS FACTOR WILL OFFSET THE RELATIVELY
WEAKER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
AND GUSTS REACHING 35 MPH EXPECTED.
WITH REGARDS TO REMAINING FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...MODEL DISCREPANCIES
EXIST WITH REGARD TO THE STRENGTH OF THE FLOW ALOFT...WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG WINDS TO OCCUR EAST OF THE EXTREMELY
CRITICAL AREA IN SWRN TX. HOWEVER...GIVEN THESE DISCREPANCIES AND
ENSUING UNCERTAINTY...THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT UPGRADE AREAS OF SWRN TX
EAST OF THE CURRENT EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA. ALSO...MODELS SUGGEST
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR NORTHEAST DRY CONDITIONS AND
STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND. THE NERN EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL AREA OVER
PORTIONS OF NRN TX MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SLIGHTLY
EWD...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION OF THE FRONT PRECLUDES MAKING
ANY ADJUSTMENTS ATTM. ALSO...WHILE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
COULD OCCUR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CRITICAL AREA IN NM DUE TO
STRONG W-NWLY WINDS...RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
YIELD RH VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS MITIGATING THE
FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
...PORTIONS OF SOUTH TX...
TO THE S OF THE CRITICAL AREA AND WEST OF THE DRYLINE...RH VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT COINCIDENT WITH W-SWLY TO
WLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. THIS COULD YIELD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WITH THE TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT FARTHER
NORTH...THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS /ALBEIT UNLIKELY/ IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY BRIEF SUCH
THAT CRITICAL DELINEATION IS NOT WARRANTED ATTM.
...PORTIONS OF CNTRL AZ...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO THE WEST OF THE
CRITICAL AREA OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL AZ. ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF
CNTRL AZ...W-NWLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS /STRONGEST
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/ ARE EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH RH VALUES
FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MIDDLE TEENS. HOWEVER...WITH THE
TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCATED FARTHER EAST...THE DURATION OF
ANY CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO
SHORT FOR CRITICAL DELINEATION ATTM. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NRN
PORTIONS OF CNTRL AZ...STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT W-NWLY SFC WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
HOWEVER...RH VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE UPPER TEENS
FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL DURATION OF TIME WITH RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR CRITICAL
DELINEATION.
..COHEN.. 04/26/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...