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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 260840
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0340 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN NM
   INTO WRN TX...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL/SERN
   AZ...PORTIONS OF CNTRL NM...MUCH OF WRN TX INTO CNTRL TX...
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POWERFUL MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM DIVING SEWD OVER THE WRN
   CONUS...AS DEPICTED IN RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL CONTINUE TO
   CARVE OUT A LARGE...DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL AND WRN CONUS.
   INTENSE DEEP-LAYER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET /500-MB
   AND 700-MB SPEEDS AOA 80 MPH AND 50 MPH...RESPECTIVELY/ WILL
   TRAVERSE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE
   PERIOD. AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT EWD...A SFC LOW WILL
   STRENGTHEN IN THE LEE OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES OVER SERN CO. THE LOW
   WILL RIDE ALONG A FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...INITIALLY
   TAKING AN E-SEWD TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...AND THEN
   MOVING EWD IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER...BEFORE MOVING E-NEWD
   INTO SWRN AR LATE TONIGHT. DRY TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
   TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND TO THE WEST OF A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD
   FROM THE FRONT OVER CNTRL TX. THE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO SURGE EWD
   TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL TX. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN A
   WIDESPREAD AREA OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS...WITH AN EMBEDDED AREA OF
   EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST
   INTO THE SRN PLAINS. ALSO OF NOTE...ANY ONGOING FIRES ACROSS THE
   CRITICAL AND EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREAS OVER TX AND ERN NM WILL BE
   IMPACTED BY A WIND SHIFT TO NWLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
   HOURS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN NM INTO WRN TX...
   THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE W/SW OF THE SFC LOW IS FORECAST
   TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED WLY WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE
   EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS CNTRL NM INTO
   ADJACENT AREAS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...AND INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO
   THE 90S FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SRN NM AND PORTIONS OF FAR SWRN TX. IN
   RESPONSE...MIXED-LAYER HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TO AOA 7500 FT AGL IN
   MANY AREAS...ALLOWING THE VERY STRONG FLOW ALOFT TO BE MANIFESTED AT
   THE SFC. AS SUCH...GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 40 TO 50 MPH. EVEN
   STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN NM
   AND FAR WRN TX /ESPECIALLY OVER THE SACRAMENTO AND GUADALUPE
   MOUNTAINS/. RH VALUES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO FALL TO 5 TO 10
   PERCENT...EXCEPT TO 8 TO 12 PERCENT ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE TX
   SOUTH PLAINS...WITH DRYING EFFECTS SUPPORTED BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF
   THE SRN ROCKIES IN SOME AREAS. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...AND THE SEVERE
   TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT IN PLACE...EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
   ANTICIPATED.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL/SERN AZ...PORTIONS OF CNTRL NM...MUCH OF WRN
   TX INTO CNTRL TX...
   SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
   EXPECTED WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY FROM 20 TO 30 MPH AND
   GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH. WIND DIRECTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WLY TO
   W-NWLY ACROSS THE WRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CRITICAL AREA...AND W-SWLY
   TO WLY ACROSS THE ERN ONE-THIRD OF THE CRITICAL AREA. THESE STRONG
   WINDS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE GENERALLY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE
   GRADIENT AND VERTICAL MIXING /MIXED-LAYER HEIGHTS AOA 7500 FT AGL IN
   MANY AREAS/ INTO THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
   FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS...AS TEMPERATURES
   WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE CRITICAL AREA
   AND INTO THE 80S AND 90S ELSEWHERE.
   
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL TX WITHIN THE CRITICAL AREA...THE SFC
   PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAKER...SUPPORTING
   SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AT THE LOWER END OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RANGE.
   HOWEVER...THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH A THERMAL AXIS
   SOUTH OF THE LOW...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S SUPPORTING
   ESPECIALLY DEEP MIXING /MIXED-LAYER HEIGHTS AOA 9000 FT AGL/ INTO
   THE STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW. THIS FACTOR WILL OFFSET THE RELATIVELY
   WEAKER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
   AND GUSTS REACHING 35 MPH EXPECTED.
   
   WITH REGARDS TO REMAINING FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...MODEL DISCREPANCIES
   EXIST WITH REGARD TO THE STRENGTH OF THE FLOW ALOFT...WITH SOME
   POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG WINDS TO OCCUR EAST OF THE EXTREMELY
   CRITICAL AREA IN SWRN TX. HOWEVER...GIVEN THESE DISCREPANCIES AND
   ENSUING UNCERTAINTY...THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT UPGRADE AREAS OF SWRN TX
   EAST OF THE CURRENT EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA. ALSO...MODELS SUGGEST
   SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR NORTHEAST DRY CONDITIONS AND
   STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND. THE NERN EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL AREA OVER
   PORTIONS OF NRN TX MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SLIGHTLY
   EWD...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION OF THE FRONT PRECLUDES MAKING
   ANY ADJUSTMENTS ATTM. ALSO...WHILE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
   COULD OCCUR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CRITICAL AREA IN NM DUE TO
   STRONG W-NWLY WINDS...RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
   YIELD RH VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS MITIGATING THE
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF SOUTH TX...
   TO THE S OF THE CRITICAL AREA AND WEST OF THE DRYLINE...RH VALUES
   ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT COINCIDENT WITH W-SWLY TO
   WLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. THIS COULD YIELD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WITH THE TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT FARTHER
   NORTH...THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND
   SPEEDS /ALBEIT UNLIKELY/ IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY BRIEF SUCH
   THAT CRITICAL DELINEATION IS NOT WARRANTED ATTM.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF CNTRL AZ...
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO THE WEST OF THE
   CRITICAL AREA OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL AZ. ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF
   CNTRL AZ...W-NWLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS /STRONGEST
   OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/ ARE EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH RH VALUES
   FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MIDDLE TEENS. HOWEVER...WITH THE
   TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCATED FARTHER EAST...THE DURATION OF
   ANY CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO
   SHORT FOR CRITICAL DELINEATION ATTM. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NRN
   PORTIONS OF CNTRL AZ...STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
   SUPPORT W-NWLY SFC WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
   HOWEVER...RH VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE UPPER TEENS
   FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL DURATION OF TIME WITH RELATIVELY COOLER
   TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR CRITICAL
   DELINEATION.
   
   ..COHEN.. 04/26/2011
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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