Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 311605
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011
VALID 311700Z - 011200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN NV...NRN MOJAVE
DESERT...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SERN CO...EXTREME NERN
NM...
...PORTIONS OF SRN NV...NRN MOJAVE DESERT...
PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. MORNING SFC OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS THE AREA INDICATE SFC WINDS HAVE ALREADY STRENGTHENED TO
AROUND 20 MPH THIS MORNING...AND WITH FURTHER HEATING...SHOULD LEAD
TO THE ONSET OF A CRITICAL COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH.
...PORTIONS OF SERN CO...EXTREME NERN NM...
A CRITICAL DELINEATION HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR THIS AREA. SHORT-TERM
MODEL FORECAST CONSENSUS INDICATES SELY SFC WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
AOA 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SFC LOW DEEPENING
OVER CNTRL CO AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING EWD INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS. A VERY DRY AIR MASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES BEING OBSERVED AT KTAD AND KRTN
AS OF 15Z. GIVEN LOCALLY DRY FUELS AND ONGOING SEVERE TO EXTREME
DROUGHT CONDITIONS...A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DEVELOP
TODAY AS WINDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN.
...NRN AZ...NWRN/CNTRL/ERN NM...
A BROAD ZONE OF MODERATELY STRONG LOW/MIDLEVEL FLOW /20-30 KTS/
OBSERVED IN 12Z FLG/ABQ SOUNDINGS WILL SUPPORT SFC WIND SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 15-20 MPH...FROM NRN AZ EWD ACROSS THE COLORADO
PLATEAU AND INTO CNTRL NM. SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY LATE MORNING...WITHIN A DRY AIR MASS REINFORCED BY
DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW.
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM...SELY SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE
TODAY TO 15-20 MPH IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE
OVER CNTRL CO. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL IMPORT SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FROM W TX...STRONG SFC HEATING WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
YIELD AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE LOWER TEENS.
WITH DRY FUELS AND ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...AN ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP TODAY.
..ROGERS.. 05/31/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0330 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011/
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING IS FORECAST TO EJECT INTO ONTARIO AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. AS THE EASTERN TROUGH
DEPARTS...LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS AND SWRN
STATES WILL RETURN TO SLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...MIDLEVEL
SWLYS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS CA AND THE WRN GREAT BASIN DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE PACIFIC TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY DEEPEN OVER CNTRL/NRN NV AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
PORTIONS OF SRN NV/CA.
...PORTIONS OF SRN NV...NRN MOJAVE DESERT...
THE COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL SWLYS AND A STRENGTHENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND S OF DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE WILL FAVOR SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS FROM 20-30 MPH
OVER PORTIONS OF SRN NV AND THE NRN MOJAVE DESERT THIS AFTERNOON.
DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ALREADY EXIST OVER THE REGION...WITH LATE
NIGHT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATING RH VALUES AOB 15 PERCENT. THIS
DRYNESS WILL SUPPORT SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES AS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
LOCALLY DRY FUELS...A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP.
...NRN AZ...NRN/CNTRL NM...SERN CO...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF AN EJECTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL
ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME SLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS FROM 15-20 MPH. IN ADDITION...MIN RH VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO FALL TO AROUND 10 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
70S AND 80S. THESE CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
THREAT...WITH PERHAPS LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING OVER SERN CO...WHERE A LONGER DURATION OF NEAR 20 MPH
WINDS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR.
...W-CNTRL/SWRN FL PENINSULA...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL FOCUS
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE GULF COAST OF CNTRL/SRN
FL. NAM OUTPUT FORECASTS THE DRIEST BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES...WITH
AFTERNOON RH VALUES FROM 35-40 PERCENT. GIVEN THIS MODEST
DRYNESS...ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE...AND STORMS QUICKLY MOVING E
/WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE RAINFALL TOTALS/...A MARGINAL THREAT FOR
LIGHTNING INITIATED FIRES COULD DEVELOP. IF THIS OCCURS...ELY
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS UP TO 15 MPH COULD ENHANCE FIRE SPREAD.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 311913
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN NV/NRN MOJAVE DESERT...NRN
AZ...SRN UT...EXTREME SWRN CO...W-CNTRL/NWRN NM...
...SRN NV/NRN MOJAVE DESERT...NRN AZ...SRN UT...EXTREME SWRN
CO...W-CNTRL/NWRN NM...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SRN GREAT BASIN EWD INTO CNTRL NM. STRENGTHENING
MIDLEVEL FLOW /40 KTS AT 700 MB/ WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
OF 20-30 MPH WITHIN A DRY AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. A SLIGHT
EXPANSION EWD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF CNTRL NM WAS MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS CRITICAL DELINEATION AREA...AS DRY AIR WILL LIKELY RESIDE
ACROSS THIS AREA WHILE WIND SPEEDS STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY...PORTIONS OF FAR SWRN UT WERE ALSO ADDED TO THE
CRITICAL RISK AREA AS LATEST FUEL INFORMATION INDICATES DRYING HAS
OCCURRED HERE.
...ERN NM...
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
..ROGERS.. 05/31/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0333 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011/
...SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST
ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/INTERMOUNTAIN W. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
UPPER TROUGH...STRONG MIDLEVEL SWLYS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS AREA...FAVORING STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION.
...SRN NV/NRN MOJAVE DESERT...NRN AZ...SERN UT...W-CNTRL/NWRN NM...
THE COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/INTERMOUNTAIN W WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS UP TO 25 MPH
DURING WED AFTERNOON. WITH MIN RH VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 10
PERCENT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY.
...ERN NM...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO ADVECT WWD INTO ERN NM BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTENING COMBINED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAKLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...AND WILL
FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN HALF
OF NM. IN ADDITION...WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...MODESTLY DEEP BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING WILL OCCUR RESULTING IN INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES. THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD LEAD TO A MARGINAL THREAT FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS/FIRE STARTS.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...