Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 311605
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1105 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011
   
   VALID 311700Z - 011200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN NV...NRN MOJAVE
   DESERT...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SERN CO...EXTREME NERN
   NM...
   
   ...PORTIONS OF SRN NV...NRN MOJAVE DESERT...
   PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. MORNING SFC OBSERVATIONS
   ACROSS THE AREA INDICATE SFC WINDS HAVE ALREADY STRENGTHENED TO
   AROUND 20 MPH THIS MORNING...AND WITH FURTHER HEATING...SHOULD LEAD
   TO THE ONSET OF A CRITICAL COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF SERN CO...EXTREME NERN NM...
   A CRITICAL DELINEATION HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR THIS AREA. SHORT-TERM
   MODEL FORECAST CONSENSUS INDICATES SELY SFC WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
   AOA 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SFC LOW DEEPENING
   OVER CNTRL CO AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING EWD INTO THE CNTRL
   PLAINS. A VERY DRY AIR MASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
   REGION...WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES BEING OBSERVED AT KTAD AND KRTN
   AS OF 15Z. GIVEN LOCALLY DRY FUELS AND ONGOING SEVERE TO EXTREME
   DROUGHT CONDITIONS...A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DEVELOP
   TODAY AS WINDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN.
   
   ...NRN AZ...NWRN/CNTRL/ERN NM...
   A BROAD ZONE OF MODERATELY STRONG LOW/MIDLEVEL FLOW /20-30 KTS/
   OBSERVED IN 12Z FLG/ABQ SOUNDINGS WILL SUPPORT SFC WIND SPEEDS
   INCREASING TO 15-20 MPH...FROM NRN AZ EWD ACROSS THE COLORADO
   PLATEAU AND INTO CNTRL NM. SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES WILL BECOME
   WIDESPREAD BY LATE MORNING...WITHIN A DRY AIR MASS REINFORCED BY
   DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW.
   
   ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM...SELY SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE
   TODAY TO 15-20 MPH IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE
   OVER CNTRL CO. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL IMPORT SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE FROM W TX...STRONG SFC HEATING WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
   YIELD AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE LOWER TEENS.
   
   WITH DRY FUELS AND ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
   REGION...AN ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS
   FORECAST TO DEVELOP TODAY.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 05/31/2011
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0330 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS EARLY THIS
   MORNING IS FORECAST TO EJECT INTO ONTARIO AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH
   AMPLIFIES ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. AS THE EASTERN TROUGH
   DEPARTS...LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS AND SWRN
   STATES WILL RETURN TO SLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...MIDLEVEL
   SWLYS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS CA AND THE WRN GREAT BASIN DOWNSTREAM
   FROM THE PACIFIC TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
   GRADUALLY DEEPEN OVER CNTRL/NRN NV AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
   PORTIONS OF SRN NV/CA.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF SRN NV...NRN MOJAVE DESERT...
   THE COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL SWLYS AND A STRENGTHENING
   SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND S OF DEEPENING
   LOW PRESSURE WILL FAVOR SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS FROM 20-30 MPH
   OVER PORTIONS OF SRN NV AND THE NRN MOJAVE DESERT THIS AFTERNOON.
   DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ALREADY EXIST OVER THE REGION...WITH LATE
   NIGHT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATING RH VALUES AOB 15 PERCENT. THIS
   DRYNESS WILL SUPPORT SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES AS AFTERNOON
   TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
   LOCALLY DRY FUELS...A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP.
   
   ...NRN AZ...NRN/CNTRL NM...SERN CO...
   WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE
   GREAT PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF AN EJECTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL
   ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME SLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
   SUSTAINED SPEEDS FROM 15-20 MPH. IN ADDITION...MIN RH VALUES ARE
   FORECAST TO FALL TO AROUND 10 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
   70S AND 80S. THESE CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT...WITH PERHAPS LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
   DEVELOPING OVER SERN CO...WHERE A LONGER DURATION OF NEAR 20 MPH
   WINDS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR.
   
   ...W-CNTRL/SWRN FL PENINSULA...
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL FOCUS
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE GULF COAST OF CNTRL/SRN
   FL. NAM OUTPUT FORECASTS THE DRIEST BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES...WITH
   AFTERNOON RH VALUES FROM 35-40 PERCENT. GIVEN THIS MODEST
   DRYNESS...ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE...AND STORMS QUICKLY MOVING E
   /WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE RAINFALL TOTALS/...A MARGINAL THREAT FOR
   LIGHTNING INITIATED FIRES COULD DEVELOP. IF THIS OCCURS...ELY
   SURFACE WIND SPEEDS UP TO 15 MPH COULD ENHANCE FIRE SPREAD.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 311913
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0213 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN NV/NRN MOJAVE DESERT...NRN
   AZ...SRN UT...EXTREME SWRN CO...W-CNTRL/NWRN NM...
   
   ...SRN NV/NRN MOJAVE DESERT...NRN AZ...SRN UT...EXTREME SWRN
   CO...W-CNTRL/NWRN NM...
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER
   PORTIONS OF THE SRN GREAT BASIN EWD INTO CNTRL NM. STRENGTHENING
   MIDLEVEL FLOW /40 KTS AT 700 MB/ WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
   OF 20-30 MPH WITHIN A DRY AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. A SLIGHT
   EXPANSION EWD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF CNTRL NM WAS MADE TO THE
   PREVIOUS CRITICAL DELINEATION AREA...AS DRY AIR WILL LIKELY RESIDE
   ACROSS THIS AREA WHILE WIND SPEEDS STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   ADDITIONALLY...PORTIONS OF FAR SWRN UT WERE ALSO ADDED TO THE
   CRITICAL RISK AREA AS LATEST FUEL INFORMATION INDICATES DRYING HAS
   OCCURRED HERE.
   
   ...ERN NM...
   PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 05/31/2011
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0333 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST
   ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
   DEEPEN OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/INTERMOUNTAIN W. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
   UPPER TROUGH...STRONG MIDLEVEL SWLYS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT
   BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS AREA...FAVORING STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS
   ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ...SRN NV/NRN MOJAVE DESERT...NRN AZ...SERN UT...W-CNTRL/NWRN NM...
   THE COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND DEEPENING
   SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/INTERMOUNTAIN W WILL AID
   IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS UP TO 25 MPH
   DURING WED AFTERNOON. WITH MIN RH VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 10
   PERCENT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY.
   
   ...ERN NM...
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO ADVECT WWD INTO ERN NM BY LATE
   AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTENING COMBINED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAKLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...AND WILL
   FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN HALF
   OF NM. IN ADDITION...WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...MODESTLY DEEP BOUNDARY
   LAYER MIXING WILL OCCUR RESULTING IN INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES. THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD LEAD TO A MARGINAL THREAT FOR DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS/FIRE STARTS.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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