Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 041636
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 AM CDT SAT JUN 04 2011
VALID 041700Z - 051200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN AZ...SRN NV...
...NRN AZ...SRN NV...
PREVIOUS FORECAST CONDITIONS APPEAR ON-TRACK AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
EWD ALONG AND N OF THE MOGOLLON RIM DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON...NECESSITATING AN EXPANSION OF THE CRITICAL AREA
DELINEATION ACROSS NRN AZ.
...CNTRL/ERN NM...FAR WRN TX...
WHITE SANDS NM PROFILER HAS SAMPLED LIGHT S/SELY FLOW IN THE 3-5 KM
AGL LAYER WHICH CONFIRMS THE MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTION OF A SLIGHT
WWD SHIFT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION
RELATIVE TO FRI. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH-BASED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN...LIKELY INITIATING OFF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO/SACRAMENTO TO FAR
W TX MTNS PER CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WET GIVEN MEAN SWLY FLOW THROUGH THE
CLOUD-BEARING LAYER...BUT A FEW DRY TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE WRN
FRINGE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME JUST E OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN
CNTRL NM.
..GRAMS.. 06/04/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CDT SAT JUN 04 2011/
...SYNOPSIS...
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL
BUILD WWD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH HOT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES LINGERING AT THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF
THE NATION. MID LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF THE NATION...PRIMARILY EAST OF THE ROCKIES
AND WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS OVER PORTIONS OF FAR WRN TX
AND ERN NM.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CNTRL CA COAST WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
ONSHORE...WITH STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW EXPECTED OVER WRN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST AS THIS OCCURS. FARTHER EAST...A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW
OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL DRIFT SEWD...WITH DRY CONTINENTAL FLOW
CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHEAST IN ITS WAKE.
...NWRN AZ...SRN NV...
INCREASING DEEP LAYER WINDS WITH THE APPROACH OF AN ERN PACIFIC
UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO
25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS SRN CA...NV...UT...AND NRN AZ. GIVEN
THE PREEXISTING DRY AIR MASS...WIDESPREAD MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FROM 4 TO 12 PERCENT WILL BE COMMON AS TEMPERATURES REACH
INTO THE 80S...WHILE LOWER 90S WILL BE COMMON OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH FUELS ARE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL WITH THE
NRN PORTION OF THE CRITICAL /SRN NV/...PER WGBCC FIRE POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK...FAVORABLE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
CERTAINTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER WINDS WARRANT AN UPGRADE AT
THIS TIME.
...ERN NM...FAR WRN TX...
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WWD...MID LEVEL MOISTENING WILL SHIFT WWD
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/FRI. ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER FAR WRN TX INTO ERN NM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH A
DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER AND 20 MPH SLY STEERING FLOW GENERALLY LIMITING
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 041841
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2011
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN NV...NWRN/N-CNTRL AZ...
...SRN NV...NWRN/N-CNTRL AZ...
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION APPEARS REASONABLY ON-TRACK WITH
CONDITIONS REMAINING SIMILAR TO SAT/D1...RESULTING IN AN EWD
EXPANSION OF THE CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION INTO N-CNTRL AZ. MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT THAT THE ERN EXTENT OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SLYS /AOA 30 MPH AT 700 MB/ WILL CONTRACT WWD RELATIVE TO
SAT/D1...SUGGESTING MORE MARGINAL CONDITIONS IN NERN AZ.
...FAR ERN AZ...WRN TO NERN NM...FAR SERN CO...
MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL
GRADUALLY ADVECT WWD...LIKELY EXTENDING ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER ON
SUN AFTERNOON. A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...DIURNAL OROGRAPHIC
FORCING AND WEAKLY DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD FOSTER ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-BASED TSTMS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS
MOISTURE PLUME. MEAN STORM MOTION SHOULD BE MORE MODEST /AROUND 10
TO 20 MPH/ RELATIVE TO SAT/D1 AND LARGELY REMAIN FROM THE W/SW PER
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH THE LACK OF
STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY TSTM COVERAGE
REMAINING ISOLATED. NEVERTHELESS...DEEP/DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS WILL
PROMOTE GUSTY/ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WHICH MAY AFFECT ONGOING LARGE
FIRES.
..GRAMS.. 06/04/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0337 AM CDT SAT JUN 04 2011/
...SYNOPSIS...
A CNTRL CA UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT ONSHORE...LEADING
TO STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST.
MEANWHILE...AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE WWD...WITH THE ASSOCIATED THREAT OF
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW
DEVELOPING WWD COMPARED TO SATURDAY/D1.
...SRN NV...FAR SWRN UT...NWRN AZ...
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO SATURDAY/D1 WILL DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO DRIFT EWD ACROSS CNTRL CA. THE STRENGTHENED DEEP LAYER
WIND FIELDS WILL LEAD TO SUSTAINED SLY SURFACE WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20
TO 25 MPH...WITH MIXING HEIGHTS AROUND 7 TO 9 KFT SUPPORTING GUSTS
TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY
WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 90S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS SUPPORTING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FROM 7 TO 12 PERCENT. POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY CAN BE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
...ERN AZ...W/CNTRL NM...
A MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL DEVELOP WWD IN RESPONSE TO AN
EXPANSIVE RETROGRADING UPPER HIGH. WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON AND LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD FOSTER AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF E CNTRL AZ/W CNTRL
NM...WITH LIGHT SLY STEERING FLOW ALLOWING A NWD DRIFT IN
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP. GIVEN THE DRY SUBCLOUD
LAYER...SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 7 TO 15 PERCENT
PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE N-S ORIENTED MOUNTAINS OF NM...AND THE
PRESENCE OF CURED FUELS...AN ENHANCED THREAT OF LIGHTNING STARTED
FIRES WILL EXIST. HOWEVER...LACK OF ANY NOTABLE UPPER DISTURBANCE ON
MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS UPPER FORCING MAY BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...SUBSEQUENTLY LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY IN EXPECTED COVERAGE
OF STORMS...AND PRECLUDING A DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA ISSUANCE AT THIS
TIME.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...