Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 041636
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1136 AM CDT SAT JUN 04 2011
   
   VALID 041700Z - 051200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN AZ...SRN NV...
   
   ...NRN AZ...SRN NV...
   PREVIOUS FORECAST CONDITIONS APPEAR ON-TRACK AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
   EWD ALONG AND N OF THE MOGOLLON RIM DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON...NECESSITATING AN EXPANSION OF THE CRITICAL AREA
   DELINEATION ACROSS NRN AZ.
   
   ...CNTRL/ERN NM...FAR WRN TX...
   WHITE SANDS NM PROFILER HAS SAMPLED LIGHT S/SELY FLOW IN THE 3-5 KM
   AGL LAYER WHICH CONFIRMS THE MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTION OF A SLIGHT
   WWD SHIFT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION
   RELATIVE TO FRI. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH-BASED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP
   AGAIN...LIKELY INITIATING OFF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO/SACRAMENTO TO FAR
   W TX MTNS PER CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE. MOST OF THE
   ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WET GIVEN MEAN SWLY FLOW THROUGH THE
   CLOUD-BEARING LAYER...BUT A FEW DRY TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE WRN
   FRINGE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME JUST E OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN
   CNTRL NM.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/04/2011
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CDT SAT JUN 04 2011/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL
   BUILD WWD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH HOT AFTERNOON
   TEMPERATURES LINGERING AT THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF
   THE NATION. MID LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY AROUND THE
   PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF THE NATION...PRIMARILY EAST OF THE ROCKIES
   AND WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
   POSSIBLE ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS OVER PORTIONS OF FAR WRN TX
   AND ERN NM.
   
   MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CNTRL CA COAST WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
   ONSHORE...WITH STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW EXPECTED OVER WRN PORTIONS OF
   THE SOUTHWEST AS THIS OCCURS. FARTHER EAST...A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW
   OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL DRIFT SEWD...WITH DRY CONTINENTAL FLOW
   CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHEAST IN ITS WAKE.
   
   ...NWRN AZ...SRN NV...
   INCREASING DEEP LAYER WINDS WITH THE APPROACH OF AN ERN PACIFIC
   UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO
   25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS SRN CA...NV...UT...AND NRN AZ. GIVEN
   THE PREEXISTING DRY AIR MASS...WIDESPREAD MINIMUM RELATIVE
   HUMIDITIES FROM 4 TO 12 PERCENT WILL BE COMMON AS TEMPERATURES REACH
   INTO THE 80S...WHILE LOWER 90S WILL BE COMMON OVER PORTIONS OF THE
   LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH FUELS ARE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL WITH THE
   NRN PORTION OF THE CRITICAL /SRN NV/...PER WGBCC FIRE POTENTIAL
   OUTLOOK...FAVORABLE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
   CERTAINTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER WINDS WARRANT AN UPGRADE AT
   THIS TIME.
   
   ...ERN NM...FAR WRN TX...
   AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WWD...MID LEVEL MOISTENING WILL SHIFT WWD
   COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/FRI. ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
   DEVELOP OVER FAR WRN TX INTO ERN NM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH A
   DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER AND 20 MPH SLY STEERING FLOW GENERALLY LIMITING
   RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 041841
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0141 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2011
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN NV...NWRN/N-CNTRL AZ...
   
   ...SRN NV...NWRN/N-CNTRL AZ...
   PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION APPEARS REASONABLY ON-TRACK WITH
   CONDITIONS REMAINING SIMILAR TO SAT/D1...RESULTING IN AN EWD
   EXPANSION OF THE CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION INTO N-CNTRL AZ. MODEL
   GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT THAT THE ERN EXTENT OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL
   SLYS /AOA 30 MPH AT 700 MB/ WILL CONTRACT WWD RELATIVE TO
   SAT/D1...SUGGESTING MORE MARGINAL CONDITIONS IN NERN AZ.
   
   ...FAR ERN AZ...WRN TO NERN NM...FAR SERN CO...
   MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL
   GRADUALLY ADVECT WWD...LIKELY EXTENDING ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER ON
   SUN AFTERNOON. A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...DIURNAL OROGRAPHIC
   FORCING AND WEAKLY DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD FOSTER ISOLATED
   TO WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-BASED TSTMS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS
   MOISTURE PLUME. MEAN STORM MOTION SHOULD BE MORE MODEST /AROUND 10
   TO 20 MPH/ RELATIVE TO SAT/D1 AND LARGELY REMAIN FROM THE W/SW PER
   MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH THE LACK OF
   STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY TSTM COVERAGE
   REMAINING ISOLATED. NEVERTHELESS...DEEP/DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS WILL
   PROMOTE GUSTY/ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WHICH MAY AFFECT ONGOING LARGE
   FIRES.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/04/2011
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0337 AM CDT SAT JUN 04 2011/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A CNTRL CA UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT ONSHORE...LEADING
   TO STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST.
   MEANWHILE...AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
   WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE WWD...WITH THE ASSOCIATED THREAT OF
   ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW
   DEVELOPING WWD COMPARED TO SATURDAY/D1.
   
   ...SRN NV...FAR SWRN UT...NWRN AZ...
   SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO SATURDAY/D1 WILL DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LOW
   CONTINUES TO DRIFT EWD ACROSS CNTRL CA. THE STRENGTHENED DEEP LAYER
   WIND FIELDS WILL LEAD TO SUSTAINED SLY SURFACE WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20
   TO 25 MPH...WITH MIXING HEIGHTS AROUND 7 TO 9 KFT SUPPORTING GUSTS
   TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY
   WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
   IN THE 90S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS SUPPORTING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
   VALUES FROM 7 TO 12 PERCENT. POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY CAN BE
   EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
   
   ...ERN AZ...W/CNTRL NM...
   A MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL DEVELOP WWD IN RESPONSE TO AN
   EXPANSIVE RETROGRADING UPPER HIGH. WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY
   AFTERNOON AND LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD FOSTER AT LEAST ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF E CNTRL AZ/W CNTRL
   NM...WITH LIGHT SLY STEERING FLOW ALLOWING A NWD DRIFT IN
   THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP. GIVEN THE DRY SUBCLOUD
   LAYER...SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 7 TO 15 PERCENT
   PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE N-S ORIENTED MOUNTAINS OF NM...AND THE
   PRESENCE OF CURED FUELS...AN ENHANCED THREAT OF LIGHTNING STARTED
   FIRES WILL EXIST. HOWEVER...LACK OF ANY NOTABLE UPPER DISTURBANCE ON
   MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS UPPER FORCING MAY BE SOMEWHAT
   LIMITED...SUBSEQUENTLY LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY IN EXPECTED COVERAGE
   OF STORMS...AND PRECLUDING A DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA ISSUANCE AT THIS
   TIME.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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