Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 051640
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1140 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2011
   
   VALID 051700Z - 061200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN NV...NWRN/N-CNTRL AZ...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR W-CNTRL NM...
   
   ...SRN NV...NWRN/N-CNTRL AZ...
   MINOR EXPANSION OF CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION IN SRN NV BASED ON
   LATEST OBSERVATIONS...WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST CONDITIONS WELL
   ON-TRACK.
   
   ...FAR ERN AZ...WRN NM...
   HAVE ADDED A SMALL CRITICAL AREA FOR POTENTIALLY SCATTERED DRY TSTM
   COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS W-CNTRL NM.
   
   AFTER GENERALLY WET TSTMS OVER THE ERN NM PLAINS THE PAST FEW
   DAYS...A PLUME OF SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOW
   PROGRESSED W OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH 30S TO MIDDLE 40S
   SURFACE DEW POINTS EVIDENT IN 16Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. MODEL
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP VERTICAL MIXING AND CRITICALLY LOW
   SURFACE RH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH-BASED TSTMS PRODUCING
   GUSTY/ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING ONGOING LARGE
   FIRES. DESPITE THE LACK OF AN APPRECIABLE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
   IMPULSE...DIURNALLY-DRIVEN OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND WEAKLY DIFFLUENT
   UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD FOSTER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS. THE
   GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF TSTMS SHOULD FOCUS INVOF THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN OF W-CNTRL NM...PER OPERATIONAL AND CONVECTION
   ALLOWING-MODEL GUIDANCE...AND GRADUALLY PROGRESS E/NEWD WITH 15 TO
   20 MPH MEAN FLOW IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER. GIVEN SEVERE TO
   EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT...ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF MODERATE TO
   STRONG WINDS/LOW RH ON MON/TUE...A CRITICAL THREAT APPEARS
   JUSTIFIED.
   
   ...SRN WY...
   NO UPDATE NEEDED.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/05/2011
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2011/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A CNTRL CA UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT ONSHORE...LEADING
   TO STRENGTHENED DEEP LAYER WINDS ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE
   SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE...AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED
   OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WHILE THE NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THE RIDGE
   OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SHIFT INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
   AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
   ERN AZ/WRN NM AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH.
   
   ...SRN NV...NWRN AND N CNTRL AZ...
   POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS ONGOING...PARTICULARLY OVER SRN
   NV AND THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WHERE SINGLE DIGIT VALUES ARE STILL
   BEING REPORTED AS OF 07Z. EXPECT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO REMAIN BELOW
   15 PERCENT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...WITH MINIMUM VALUES ONCE
   AGAIN RANGING FROM NEAR 5 TO 10 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
   THE 90S TO NEAR 100 F AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY
   RECOVERY CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH VALUES IN THE
   UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...STRENGTHENED DEEP
   LAYER WINDS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING CNTRL CA UPPER LOW WILL
   INDUCE SUSTAINED SLY SURFACE WINDS NEAR 20 TO 25 MPH BY AFTERNOON
   AND THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS MIXING
   HEIGHTS DEEPEN TO AROUND 7 TO 9 KFT.
   
   ...FAR ERN AZ...WRN NM...
   LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW LED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SERN CO AND
   CNTRL/ERN NM ALONG/EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SACRAMENTO
   RANGES TODAY...WHERE STORMS HAVE CONGEALED AND PROGRESSED SWD TO E
   CNTRL NM AS OF 07Z. AN EXPANSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS SURGED AHEAD
   OF THIS...AND IS ORIENTED W-E FROM CNTRL NM TO WRN PORTIONS OF THE
   SRN TX PANHANDLE. REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN ADDITION TO WEAK
   UPSLOPE WILL ONCE AGAIN FOSTER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
   AFTERNOON/EVENING...THOUGH THEY WILL GENERALLY BE WET IN NATURE
   ALONG AND EAST OF THE N-S ORIENTED MOUNTAINS OF NM. TO THE WEST ON
   THE WRN PERIPHERY OF GREATER MID LEVEL MOISTURE...STEERING FLOW NEAR
   20 TO 30 MPH WILL ALLOW STORMS TO GRADUALLY DRIFT NWD...AND MAY HELP
   LIMIT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. ALTHOUGH NO APPRECIABLE UPPER
   WAVE/FORCING IS NOTED ON WV IMAGERY AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT
   COVERAGE...A DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER AND SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
   GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 PERCENT MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL OF
   LIGHTNING STARTED FIRES. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS WILL
   AGITATE ONGOING FIRES.
   
   ...SRN WY...
   THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF A CNTRL CA
   UPPER LOW...AND IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING TROUGH FARTHER E WILL
   SHIFT SLIGHTLY EWD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SUBSIDENCE
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE...AND A LOW LEVEL WSWLY DOWNSLOPE
   COMPONENT OFF THE UNITA MOUNTAINS WILL LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES IN
   THE LOWER 80S...WITH DRYING SUPPORTING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN
   THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE GREAT DIVIDE BASIN. WARM/DRY
   CONDITIONS WILL ALIGN WITH SUSTAINED WSWLY SURFACE WINDS NEAR 20 TO
   30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...UNFAVORABLE FUELS WILL
   PRECLUDE A CRITICAL ISSUANCE.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 051938
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0238 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2011
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NERN AZ...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL/NRN AZ...WRN NM...SERN
   UT...FAR SWRN CO...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL/NERN NM...S-CNTRL/SERN CO...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN OK...SWRN
   KS...
   
   ...NERN AZ...
   PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATE NEEDED.
   
   ...CNTRL/NRN AZ...WRN NM...SERN UT...FAR SWRN CO...
   HAVE EXPANDED CRITICAL AREA ACROSS THE WHITE MTNS IN E-CNTRL AZ INTO
   WRN NM WITH MODELS TRENDING FARTHER SEWD WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   SUSTAINED WINDS AOA 20 MPH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
   AFFECT ONGOING LARGE FIRES ALONG WITH ANY POTENTIAL IGNITIONS FROM
   DRY TSTMS ON D1. ELSEWHERE...PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK.
   
   ...CNTRL/NERN NM...S-CNTRL/SERN CO...
   PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION REMAINS VALID. HAVE ADDED A CRITICAL
   AREA WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT SCATTERED DRY TSTMS SHOULD
   DEVELOP ON MON AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM CNTRL/NERN NM INTO FAR
   S-CNTRL/SERN CO. MEAN FLOW THROUGH 500-300 MB WILL STRENGTHEN TO 25
   TO 35 MPH...LEADING TO FASTER STORM MOTION RELATIVE TO D1. THE
   GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT BASIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
   FAVORABLY TIMED WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE
   REGION DURING PEAK HEATING. THESE FACTORS WILL AID IN A LARGER
   SPATIAL EXTENT OF DRY TSTMS COMPARED TO D1. GIVEN SEVERE TO
   EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT...ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF MODERATE TO
   STRONG WINDS/LOW RH OCCURRING ON TUE...POTENTIAL FOR IGNITIONS
   FOLLOWED BY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FIRE SPREAD...ALL SUPPORT A
   CRITICAL THREAT.
   
   ...TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN OK...SWRN KS...
   THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO D1
   WITH THE GRADUAL EWD PROGRESSION OF THE WRN CONUS UPPER-LEVEL
   TROUGH. GUIDANCE DIFFERS TO SOME EXTENT ON THE AMPLITUDE OF
   STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SLYS WITH THE 12Z GFS/15Z ETA-KF CONTROL RUN
   OF THE SREF STRONGER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF. REGARDLESS...GUIDANCE HAS
   APPEARED UNDERDONE WITH ONGOING WINDS ON D1 /LARGELY SUSTAINED FROM
   15 TO 22 MPH/...WHICH SUGGESTS WINDS OF 18 TO 25 MPH SHOULD BE
   COMMON ON MON AFTERNOON. WITH HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO
   NEAR 102...RH VALUES APPEAR LIKELY TO FALL TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15
   PERCENT...YIELDING A CRITICAL THREAT.
   
   ...NERN UT INTO NWRN CO...SWRN/S CNTRL WY...
   NO UPDATE NEEDED.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/05/2011
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0346 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2011/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CNTRL CA WILL TRAVERSE ENEWD INTO
   THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...STRENGTHENING
   WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED THREAT OF
   WIND-DRIVEN FIRES...WHILE A THREAT OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
   OVER MUCH OF NM AND SRN CO. FARTHER EAST...AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE
   WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN/BECOME SHUNTED EWD IN ADVANCE OF
   THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AS A SEPARATE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE
   CNTRL/ERN CANADIAN PROVINCES.
   
   ...NERN AZ...
   A SMALL EXTREMELY CRITICAL DELINEATION HAS BEEN INTRODUCED IN NERN
   AZ ALONG AND N OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WHERE MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
   AND THE PRESENCE OF DRY FUELS EXISTS. STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
   NEAR 30 TO 45 MPH WILL ALIGN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER
   90S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER
   TEENS.
   
   ...SRN NV...CNTRL/NRN AZ...SERN UT...FAR WRN CO/NWRN NM...
   AS THE POTENT UPPER LOW TRAVERSES INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN
   WEST...ITS ASSOCIATED JET CORE WILL ALIGN OVER NRN AZ/SRN UT BY
   AFTERNOON...STRENGTHENING SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS TO NEAR 30 TO 45
   MPH OVER CNTRL/NRN AZ...MUCH OF UT...AND INTO FAR WRN CO/NWRN NM.
   FARTHER WEST OVER SRN NV/NWRN AZ AND SWRN UT...WIND SPEEDS WILL
   GENERALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS
   EWD...BUT SEVERAL HOURS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH
   THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80S
   TO LOWER 90S WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE
   UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS...WITH POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY
   RECOVERY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FUELS WILL
   PRECLUDE A LARGER EXTREMELY CRITICAL DELINEATION AT THIS TIME.
   
   ...MUCH OF NM INTO SRN CO...
   INCREASING SLY/SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LOW WILL SHUNT
   A MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME NWD/NEWD. ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
   GREATER MOISTURE...HEIGHT FALLS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING
   TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OF
   DRY THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY INITIATING OVER FAVORED TERRAIN AND
   REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION. A DRY
   SUBCLOUD LAYER IN ADDITION TO FAST STORM MOTION NEAR 25 TO 40 MPH
   WILL GENERALLY LIMIT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. A DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA
   MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS...GIVING INCREASING
   CERTAINTY OF GREATER THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
   
   ...ERN NM...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...SWRN KS...SERN CO...
   SLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20 TO 30 MPH IN RESPONSE TO AN
   INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS BY
   AFTERNOON...AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE EAST OVER ERN
   OK/WRN AR. DESPITE HOT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100
   F...MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR 15 TO 25 PERCENT WILL PRECLUDE
   A CRITICAL ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME. SHOULD LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
   BE FORECAST...AN UPGRADE MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT
   OUTLOOKS...PRIMARILY IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT RECENTLY RECEIVED
   RAINFALL WITH THE RECENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
   
   ...NERN UT INTO NWRN CO...SWRN/S CNTRL WY...
   SWLY/SLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACH OF A
   POTENT UPPER LOW...WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS NEAR 25 TO 40
   MPH AND STRONGER GUSTS COMMON. A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
   DRYING /PARTICULARLY IN THE UNITA AND GREAT DIVIDE BASINS/ WHERE
   RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER TEENS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
   TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. HOWEVER...FUELS
   CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR FIRE STARTS/SPREAD AT THIS TIME.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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