Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Mon Jun 6 17:01:02 UTC 2011

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 061700
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1200 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2011
   
   VALID 061700Z - 071200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NERN/E-CNTRL AZ...NWRN
   NM...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN/ERN AZ...WRN NM...SERN
   UT...FAR SWRN CO...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL/ERN NM...S-CNTRL/SERN CO...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN OK...SWRN
   KS...
   
   ...NRN/ERN AZ...WRN NM...SERN UT...FAR SWRN CO...
   PREVIOUS FORECAST CONDITIONS REMAIN WELL ON TRACK...BUT MORNING
   MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FARTHER SE WITH THE AXIS OF STRONGER
   LOW/MID-LEVEL S/SWLYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   CENTERED OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN. THUS...HAVE EXPANDED BOTH THE
   CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION SEWD ACROSS WRN NM AND SERN AZ...AND
   EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION ACROSS THE WHITE MTNS OF E-CNTRL
   AZ INTO PORTIONS OF NWRN NM.
   
   ...CNTRL/ERN NM...S-CNTRL/SERN CO...
   PREVIOUS FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS VALID WITH SCATTERED DRY TSTMS
   LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. MINOR CHANGE TO EXPAND
   CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION E/SEWD PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
   
   ...TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN OK...SWRN KS...
   16Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SAMPLED BORDERLINE CRITICAL CONDITIONS
   ALREADY WITH SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS OF 2O TO 30 MPH AND RH VALUES OF
   15 TO 20 PERCENT. AS RH CONTINUES TO FALL TO BETWEEN 8 AND 15
   PERCENT WITH TEMPERATURES SURGING THROUGH THE 90S TO NEAR 102...AND
   STRONG WINDS PERSIST...SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
   EXPECTED. HAVE EXPANDED AREAL DELINEATION FARTHER SW ACROSS THE TX
   PANHANDLE IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MORNING MODEL
   GUIDANCE.
   
   ...NERN UT INTO NWRN CO...SWRN/S CNTRL WY...
   NO UPDATE NEEDED.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/06/2011
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0224 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2011/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POTENT CNTRL CA UPPER LOW OBSERVED ON WV IMAGERY AS OF 06Z MOVING
   ONSHORE WILL QUICKLY EJECT ENEWD INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
   OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...STRENGTHENING FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
   SOUTHWEST WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED THREAT OF WIND-DRIVEN FIRES.
   MEANWHILE...A THREAT OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF
   NM/SRN CO ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE THAT WILL
   REMAIN ANCHORED OVER ERN KS/OK AND MO/AR. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
   GRADUALLY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN/BECOME SHUNTED EWD OVERNIGHT IN
   ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND
   AS A SEPARATE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CANADIAN
   PROVINCES.
   
   ...NERN AZ...
   EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR VERY LIKELY ACROSS NERN
   AZ...PRIMARILY ALONG AND N OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WHERE MODERATE TO
   SEVERE DROUGHT AND THE PRESENCE OF DRY FUELS EXIST. VERY STRONG
   SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS NEAR 30 TO 45 MPH WILL QUICKLY BEGIN BY LATE
   MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. POOR RELATIVE
   HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL BE ONGOING THIS MORNING...WITH VALUES QUICKLY
   FALLING TO 7 TO 12 PERCENT BY LATE MORNING...WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES
   IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S CAN BE EXPECTED. POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY
   RECOVERY CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
   WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
   
   ...CNTRL/NRN AZ...WRN NM...SERN UT...FAR SWRN CO...
   AS THE POTENT UPPER LOW TRAVERSES INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN
   WEST...ITS STRONG ASSOCIATED JET CORE WILL ALIGN OVER NRN AZ INTO
   UT/WRN CO...FAVORABLY TIMED AT PEAK HEATING. IN
   RESPONSE...STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS NEAR 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE
   COMMON OVER CNTRL/NRN AZ...MUCH OF UT...AND INTO FAR WRN CO/NWRN NM.
   HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FUEL CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE
   TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL AT THIS TIME FOR AREAS SURROUNDING THE CURRENT
   EXTREMELY CRITICAL DELINEATION. FARTHER WEST OVER FAR SRN NV INTO
   NWRN AZ...WINDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER
   SYSTEM PROGRESSES EWD...BUT SEVERAL HOURS OF SUSTAINED 20 TO 30 MPH
   WINDS ALIGNED WITH CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES STILL APPEAR
   PROBABLE DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. OVER THE FAR SRN
   PORTION OF THE CRITICAL...WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS
   FARTHER N...BUT SUSTAINED WLY WINDS NEAR 20 TO 25 MPH AND HOTTER
   TEMPERATURES/LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ENHANCE THE FIRE
   THREAT...WHILE POSSIBLY AGITATING ONGOING FIRES AND POTENTIAL NEW
   FIRES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS LIGHTNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
   LOWER 80S ACROSS FAR WRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CRITICAL...90S
   ELSEWHERE...AND NEAR 104 F OVER THE FAR SRN EXTENT WILL SUPPORT
   WIDESPREAD MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FROM 7 TO 12 PERCENT.
   POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
   WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN MONDAY MORNING.
   
   ...CNTRL/NERN NM...S CNTRL/SERN CO...
   A GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT BASIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
   ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD FOSTER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION FAVORED ALONG REMNANT
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION...AND ALONG HIGHER
   TERRAIN. INCREASING SWLY/WLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY SHUNT THE MID LEVEL
   MOISTURE PLUME NWD/NEWD COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH CNTRL/NERN NM
   AND S CNTRL/SERN CO THE MOST FAVORABLE CORRIDOR FOR
   DEVELOPMENT...WHILE MODEST MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW NEAR 25 TO 35 MPH
   WILL ALLOW STORMS TO PROGRESS NEWD TO LOWER TERRAIN EAST OF THE
   SANGRE DE CRISTO/SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. MODEST STORM MOTION AND A DRY
   SUBCLOUD LAYER PRIMARILY BELOW 600 MB PER AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS WILL
   GENERALLY LIMIT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION. GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. SURFACE RELATIVE
   HUMIDITIES NEAR 9 TO 18 PERCENT...HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO
   NEAR 100 F...AND SUSTAINED SLY/SWLY SURFACE WINDS NEAR 15 TO 20 MPH
   WILL FURTHER CURE FUELS...ESPECIALLY WHERE EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT IS
   ONGOING. POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL OCCUR
   OVERNIGHT...WHILE AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG WINDS CAN BE
   EXPECTED TUESDAY FOLLOWING THE POTENTIAL IGNITION OF FIRES THAT WILL
   OCCUR TODAY.
   
   ...TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN OK...SWRN KS...
   AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND A SURFACE HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE
   EAST OVER WRN AR...THE INCREASED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
   SUPPORT STRENGTHENED SLY WINDS NEAR 18 TO 25 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS. LOWER THAN FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
   OCCURRED YESTERDAY...AND GIVEN DRY LOW LEVELS OBSERVED BELOW 700 MB
   ON AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS...AND HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR
   100 F...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT
   APPEAR PROBABLE. EXPANDED THE CRITICAL AREA SLIGHTLY NWD IN SWRN KS
   WHERE SEVERE DROUGHT IS PERSISTING.
   
   ...NERN UT INTO NWRN CO...SWRN/S CNTRL WY...
   SWLY/SLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACH OF A
   POTENT UPPER LOW...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 25 TO 40 MPH COMMON. A
   DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL ONCE AGAIN AID IN DRYING /PARTICULARLY IN
   THE UNITA AND GREAT DIVIDE BASINS/ WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE
   LOWER TEENS WILL BE PROBABLE AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 80S
   TO LOWER 90S. DESPITE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY CONDITIONS...FUELS
   CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR FIRE STARTS/SPREAD AT THIS TIME.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home