Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 111644
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1144 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011
   
   VALID 111700Z - 121200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/W-CNTRL
   NM...E-CNTRL AZ...
   NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST REQUIRED.
   
   ..LEITMAN.. 06/11/2011
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0351 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A
   MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS.
   THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIG SWD TODAY OVER THE WRN
   STATES...WHILE A SERIES OF IMPULSES APPROACHES FROM THE ERN PACIFIC.
   A ZONE OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL SWLY TO WSWLY FLOW /700-MB SPEEDS
   REACHING 25 MPH AND 500-MB SPEEDS REACHING 40 MPH/ BETWEEN THE
   TROUGH AND RIDGE WILL OVERLAY THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS...SRN
   ROCKIES...SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND SRN SECTIONS OF THE CNTRL GREAT
   BASIN. ACROSS THIS REGION...FRIDAY EVENING OBSERVED SOUNDINGS DEPICT
   AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   WITH DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE. THIS IS
   FORECAST TO SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...WITH AN
   EMBEDDED AREA OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   CNTRL/W-CNTRL NM AND E-CNTRL AZ. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL ZONE WILL
   REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS PARTS OF OK INTO FAR NERN NM...WITH A DRYLINE
   EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE FRONT OVER FAR WRN TX.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/W-CNTRL NM...E-CNTRL AZ...
   LOW-END CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS SWLY TO WSWLY
   WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 20 MPH /WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS/ AND BECOME
   JUXTAPOSED WITH RH VALUES FROM 5 TO 12 PERCENT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS
   TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S TO MIDDLE 90S...AND STRONG VERTICAL
   MIXING ALLOWS THE ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW TO BE MANIFESTED AT THE
   SURFACE...WITH THE THREAT FOR STRONG SFC WINDS AIDED BY THE
   RELATIVELY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FURTHERMORE...OVER FAR ERN
   SECTIONS OF THE CRITICAL AREA...THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE FLOW
   OVER THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   THE OVERLAP OF CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES. ONGOING
   DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL ALSO EXACERBATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT
   ACROSS THE CRITICAL AREA.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF ERN NM...WRN TX...
   TO THE EAST OF THE CRITICAL AREA...A COUPLE OF REGIONS OF ELEVATED
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED:
   
   1. FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS ERN NM AND PORTIONS OF
   FAR WRN TX...SSWLY TO SWLY WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 15 MPH ARE
   FORECAST TO COINCIDE WITH RH VALUES FROM THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS TO
   THE MIDDLE TEENS. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW
   REMAINING FARTHER TO THE WEST...CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS ARE NOT
   ANTICIPATED FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL DURATION...WHICH PRECLUDES THE NEED
   FOR CRITICAL DELINEATION.
   
   2. IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE DRYLINE FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE TO THE
   EDWARDS PLATEAU...THE RELATIVELY TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD
   SUPPORT SSELY WINDS OF 15 TO OCCASIONALLY 20 MPH. HOWEVER...RH
   VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL
   DURATION DUE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OFFSETTING
   VERTICAL MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE...THUS PRECLUDING
   THE NEED FOR CRITICAL DELINEATION.
   
   ALSO...THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT OVER FAR WRN TX IN RESPONSE TO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE.
   NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE DEEP...WELL-MIXED
   SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND DRY SFC CONDITIONS COULD SUPPORT AN INITIALLY
   DRY THUNDERSTORM MODE. HOWEVER...AS ANY ACTIVITY TRANSLATES EWD
   TOWARD RELATIVELY RICHER DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE -- I.E. PWAT VALUES IN
   EXCESS OF 0.85 INCH -- MIXED DRY/WET AND WET MODES WOULD BE
   FAVORED...TEMPERING THE OVERALL THREAT. FURTHERMORE...WITHOUT ANY
   APPRECIABLE MID/UPPER-LEVEL ASCENT...THE COVERAGE OF ANY
   THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE VERY SPARSE.
   
   ...SERN CA DESERTS...SRN NV...NRN/WRN AZ...SRN UT...NRN NM...FAR
   SWRN/S-CNTRL CO...
   TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CRITICAL AREA...SLY TO SWLY WINDS OF 15
   TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME JUXTAPOSED WITH
   RH VALUES FROM THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MIDDLE
   TEENS...RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL
   ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...WHERE DOWNSLOPE
   EFFECTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARD THESE WINDS AND RH VALUES.
   HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGER 600-500-MB FLOW FORECAST TO BE DISPLACED
   FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST -- I.E. ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED CRITICAL
   AREA -- THE COVERAGE AND DURATION OF ANY CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED
   WINDS IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO SPOTTY AND BRIEF...RESPECTIVELY...TO
   WARRANT CRITICAL DELINEATION.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 111846
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0146 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR E-CNTRL AZ...CNTRL/W-CNTRL/NERN
   NM...S-CNTRL CO...FAR WRN SECTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...
   ...E-CNTRL AZ...CNTRL/W-CNTRL/NERN NM...S-CNTRL CO...FAR WRN
   SECTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...
   ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE CRITICAL AREA IN CO TO EXTEND THE AREA
   NWD ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/NEAR PLAINS. THE
   LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH
   20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH...WHILE RH VALUES FALL INTO THE
   SINGLE DIGITS AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S AIDED
   BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST SOUNDING DATA INDICATES
   DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO AROUND 500 MB/13 KFT WITH STEEP LAPSE
   RATES AND MODEST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY /AROUND 100 J/KG SBCAPE/. THE
   ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE CRITICAL AREA WAS TO INCLUDE A BIT MORE ON
   THE NRN EDGE ACROSS AZ AND NM ALSO BASED ON LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING
   AND MODEL DATA TRENDS.
   
   THE FORECAST FOR THE SEE TEXT AREAS FOR PORTIONS OF WRN OK/TX AND
   SERN NM AS WELL AS SERN CA...SRN NV...NRN/WRN AZ...SRN UT INTO SWRN
   CO AND NWRN NM REMAINS UNCHANGED.
   
   ..LEITMAN.. 06/11/2011
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0414 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IN THE MID LEVELS...A MEAN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN CONUS...WHILE A RIDGE PERSISTS OVER
   PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A ZONE OF
   ENHANCED MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW AUGMENTED BY A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
   TRANSLATING NEWD FROM SRN CA INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THESE
   FACTORS WILL SUPPORT 700-MB SPEEDS REACHING 30 MPH AND 500-MB SPEEDS
   REACHING 45 MPH...WHICH WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER COMPARED TO THOSE
   ON D1/SAT. THIS FLOW IS FORECAST TO OVERLAY THE SOUTHWEST
   DESERTS...CNTRL GREAT BASIN...SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES...AND SRN HIGH
   PLAINS. ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THIS REGION...A DRY AIR MASS WILL
   ALSO BE IN PLACE...CONTRIBUTING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS...WITH AN EMBEDDED AREA OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS
   E-CNTRL AZ...CNTRL/W-CNTRL/NERN NM...S-CNTRL CO...AND FAR WRN
   SECTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. MEANWHILE...A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND
   OVER PARTS OF FAR WRN TX TO THE SOUTH OF A FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.
   
   ...E-CNTRL AZ...CNTRL/W-CNTRL/NERN NM...S-CNTRL CO...FAR WRN
   SECTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...
   SWLY WINDS OF 20 TO OCCASIONALLY 25 MPH ARE FORECAST TO ALIGN WITH
   RH VALUES FROM THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MIDDLE TEENS...AS
   TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO MIDDLE 90S. VERY STEEP
   LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STRONG VERTICAL MIXING...WITH
   MIXED-LAYER HEIGHTS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AOA 14 KFT AGL. THIS
   WILL ALLOW FOR THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW TO BE MANIFESTED AT THE
   SURFACE...WITH GUSTS REACHING AOA 30 MPH. THESE WINDS ON D2/SUN ARE
   FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN THOSE ON D1/SAT IN RESPONSE TO
   THE STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW. ALSO...THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF
   THE FLOW INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND OVER THE ERN SLOPES OF THE
   SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO
   THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE CRITICAL
   AREA. GIVEN THESE FACTORS AND THE ONGOING DROUGHT...CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF WRN OK...WRN TX...SERN NM...
   TO THE EAST OF THE CRITICAL AREA...A COUPLE OF REGIONS OF ELEVATED
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED:
   
   1. FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS SERN NM AND PORTIONS OF
   FAR WRN TX...SSWLY TO SWLY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH ARE FORECAST TO ALIGN
   WITH RH VALUES FROM THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MIDDLE TEENS.
   HOWEVER...WITH THE AXIS OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO
   REMAIN FARTHER TO THE WEST...THE DURATION OF ANY CRITICALLY STRONG
   WINDS IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY BRIEF SUCH THAT CRITICAL
   DELINEATION IS NOT WARRANTED.
   
   2. TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN OK AND WRN
   TX...THE RELATIVELY TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT
   SSELY WINDS OF 15 TO OCCASIONALLY 20 MPH. WHILE SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
   SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN STRONGER WINDS TO
   OCCUR...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF WRN OK AND WRN NORTH
   TX...MODELS EXHIBIT NOTABLE VARIABILITY WITH REGARD TO THE
   ANTICIPATED STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ADDITIONALLY...RH VALUES
   ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S...WITH SOME MODEL
   GUIDANCE SUGGESTING EVEN LOWER RH VALUES OCCURRING. HOWEVER...WEAK
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION EAST OF THE DRYLINE COULD OFFSET
   VERTICAL MIXING OF DRY AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE...POTENTIALLY
   PREVENTING THE ALIGNMENT OF CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS WITH CRITICALLY
   LOW RH VALUES FOR ANY APPRECIABLE DURATION OF TIME. WHILE ELEVATED
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS
   LEND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WITH PRECIPITATION HAVING OCCURRED FRIDAY
   EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. AS SUCH...ANY POSSIBLE UPGRADE
   TO CRITICAL DELINEATION WILL BE DEFERRED TO LATER OUTLOOKS/UPDATES.
   
   ALSO...AN ISOLATED STORM COULD DEVELOP OVER FAR WRN TX DUE TO
   CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. A DRY THUNDERSTORM MODE COULD OCCUR
   GIVEN NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A DEEP...WELL-MIXED
   SUB-CLOUD LAYER...DRY SFC CONDITIONS...MODEST WLY FLOW WITHIN THE
   CLOUD-BEARING LAYER...AND PWAT VALUES OF 0.55 TO 0.70 INCH.
   HOWEVER...WITHOUT ANY APPRECIABLE MID/UPPER-LEVEL ASCENT...THE
   COVERAGE OF ANY STORMS WOULD BE VERY SPARSE...WHICH WILL
   SUBSTANTIALLY MITIGATE THE OVERALL THREAT FOR LIGHTNING-INDUCED
   IGNITIONS.
   
   ...FAR SERN CA...SRN NV...NRN/WRN AZ...SRN UT...NWRN NM...SWRN CO...
   TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CRITICAL AREA...SLY TO SWLY WINDS OF 15
   TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO COMBINE WITH RH VALUES
   FROM THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MIDDLE TEENS TO RESULT IN
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WITH RELATIVELY WEAKER
   MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION COMPARED TO FARTHER SOUTH AND 
   EAST -- I.E. ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED CRITICAL AREA -- THE COVERAGE
   AND DURATION OF ANY CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS IS EXPECTED TO
   BE TOO SPOTTY AND BRIEF...RESPECTIVELY...TO WARRANT CRITICAL
   DELINEATION.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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