Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 111644
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011
VALID 111700Z - 121200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/W-CNTRL
NM...E-CNTRL AZ...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST REQUIRED.
..LEITMAN.. 06/11/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0351 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011/
...SYNOPSIS...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS.
THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIG SWD TODAY OVER THE WRN
STATES...WHILE A SERIES OF IMPULSES APPROACHES FROM THE ERN PACIFIC.
A ZONE OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL SWLY TO WSWLY FLOW /700-MB SPEEDS
REACHING 25 MPH AND 500-MB SPEEDS REACHING 40 MPH/ BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND RIDGE WILL OVERLAY THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS...SRN
ROCKIES...SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND SRN SECTIONS OF THE CNTRL GREAT
BASIN. ACROSS THIS REGION...FRIDAY EVENING OBSERVED SOUNDINGS DEPICT
AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITH DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE. THIS IS
FORECAST TO SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...WITH AN
EMBEDDED AREA OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CNTRL/W-CNTRL NM AND E-CNTRL AZ. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL ZONE WILL
REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS PARTS OF OK INTO FAR NERN NM...WITH A DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE FRONT OVER FAR WRN TX.
...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/W-CNTRL NM...E-CNTRL AZ...
LOW-END CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS SWLY TO WSWLY
WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 20 MPH /WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS/ AND BECOME
JUXTAPOSED WITH RH VALUES FROM 5 TO 12 PERCENT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S TO MIDDLE 90S...AND STRONG VERTICAL
MIXING ALLOWS THE ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW TO BE MANIFESTED AT THE
SURFACE...WITH THE THREAT FOR STRONG SFC WINDS AIDED BY THE
RELATIVELY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FURTHERMORE...OVER FAR ERN
SECTIONS OF THE CRITICAL AREA...THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE FLOW
OVER THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
THE OVERLAP OF CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES. ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL ALSO EXACERBATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT
ACROSS THE CRITICAL AREA.
...PORTIONS OF ERN NM...WRN TX...
TO THE EAST OF THE CRITICAL AREA...A COUPLE OF REGIONS OF ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED:
1. FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS ERN NM AND PORTIONS OF
FAR WRN TX...SSWLY TO SWLY WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 15 MPH ARE
FORECAST TO COINCIDE WITH RH VALUES FROM THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS TO
THE MIDDLE TEENS. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING FARTHER TO THE WEST...CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL DURATION...WHICH PRECLUDES THE NEED
FOR CRITICAL DELINEATION.
2. IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE DRYLINE FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE TO THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU...THE RELATIVELY TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD
SUPPORT SSELY WINDS OF 15 TO OCCASIONALLY 20 MPH. HOWEVER...RH
VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL
DURATION DUE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OFFSETTING
VERTICAL MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE...THUS PRECLUDING
THE NEED FOR CRITICAL DELINEATION.
ALSO...THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT OVER FAR WRN TX IN RESPONSE TO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE.
NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE DEEP...WELL-MIXED
SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND DRY SFC CONDITIONS COULD SUPPORT AN INITIALLY
DRY THUNDERSTORM MODE. HOWEVER...AS ANY ACTIVITY TRANSLATES EWD
TOWARD RELATIVELY RICHER DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE -- I.E. PWAT VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 0.85 INCH -- MIXED DRY/WET AND WET MODES WOULD BE
FAVORED...TEMPERING THE OVERALL THREAT. FURTHERMORE...WITHOUT ANY
APPRECIABLE MID/UPPER-LEVEL ASCENT...THE COVERAGE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE VERY SPARSE.
...SERN CA DESERTS...SRN NV...NRN/WRN AZ...SRN UT...NRN NM...FAR
SWRN/S-CNTRL CO...
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CRITICAL AREA...SLY TO SWLY WINDS OF 15
TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME JUXTAPOSED WITH
RH VALUES FROM THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MIDDLE
TEENS...RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...WHERE DOWNSLOPE
EFFECTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARD THESE WINDS AND RH VALUES.
HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGER 600-500-MB FLOW FORECAST TO BE DISPLACED
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST -- I.E. ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED CRITICAL
AREA -- THE COVERAGE AND DURATION OF ANY CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED
WINDS IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO SPOTTY AND BRIEF...RESPECTIVELY...TO
WARRANT CRITICAL DELINEATION.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 111846
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR E-CNTRL AZ...CNTRL/W-CNTRL/NERN
NM...S-CNTRL CO...FAR WRN SECTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...
...E-CNTRL AZ...CNTRL/W-CNTRL/NERN NM...S-CNTRL CO...FAR WRN
SECTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE CRITICAL AREA IN CO TO EXTEND THE AREA
NWD ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/NEAR PLAINS. THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH
20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH...WHILE RH VALUES FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S AIDED
BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST SOUNDING DATA INDICATES
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO AROUND 500 MB/13 KFT WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND MODEST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY /AROUND 100 J/KG SBCAPE/. THE
ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE CRITICAL AREA WAS TO INCLUDE A BIT MORE ON
THE NRN EDGE ACROSS AZ AND NM ALSO BASED ON LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING
AND MODEL DATA TRENDS.
THE FORECAST FOR THE SEE TEXT AREAS FOR PORTIONS OF WRN OK/TX AND
SERN NM AS WELL AS SERN CA...SRN NV...NRN/WRN AZ...SRN UT INTO SWRN
CO AND NWRN NM REMAINS UNCHANGED.
..LEITMAN.. 06/11/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0414 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011/
...SYNOPSIS...
IN THE MID LEVELS...A MEAN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN CONUS...WHILE A RIDGE PERSISTS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A ZONE OF
ENHANCED MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW AUGMENTED BY A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
TRANSLATING NEWD FROM SRN CA INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THESE
FACTORS WILL SUPPORT 700-MB SPEEDS REACHING 30 MPH AND 500-MB SPEEDS
REACHING 45 MPH...WHICH WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER COMPARED TO THOSE
ON D1/SAT. THIS FLOW IS FORECAST TO OVERLAY THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS...CNTRL GREAT BASIN...SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES...AND SRN HIGH
PLAINS. ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THIS REGION...A DRY AIR MASS WILL
ALSO BE IN PLACE...CONTRIBUTING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...WITH AN EMBEDDED AREA OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS
E-CNTRL AZ...CNTRL/W-CNTRL/NERN NM...S-CNTRL CO...AND FAR WRN
SECTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. MEANWHILE...A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND
OVER PARTS OF FAR WRN TX TO THE SOUTH OF A FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.
...E-CNTRL AZ...CNTRL/W-CNTRL/NERN NM...S-CNTRL CO...FAR WRN
SECTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...
SWLY WINDS OF 20 TO OCCASIONALLY 25 MPH ARE FORECAST TO ALIGN WITH
RH VALUES FROM THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MIDDLE TEENS...AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO MIDDLE 90S. VERY STEEP
LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STRONG VERTICAL MIXING...WITH
MIXED-LAYER HEIGHTS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AOA 14 KFT AGL. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW TO BE MANIFESTED AT THE
SURFACE...WITH GUSTS REACHING AOA 30 MPH. THESE WINDS ON D2/SUN ARE
FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN THOSE ON D1/SAT IN RESPONSE TO
THE STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW. ALSO...THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF
THE FLOW INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND OVER THE ERN SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO
THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE CRITICAL
AREA. GIVEN THESE FACTORS AND THE ONGOING DROUGHT...CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
...PORTIONS OF WRN OK...WRN TX...SERN NM...
TO THE EAST OF THE CRITICAL AREA...A COUPLE OF REGIONS OF ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED:
1. FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS SERN NM AND PORTIONS OF
FAR WRN TX...SSWLY TO SWLY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH ARE FORECAST TO ALIGN
WITH RH VALUES FROM THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MIDDLE TEENS.
HOWEVER...WITH THE AXIS OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO
REMAIN FARTHER TO THE WEST...THE DURATION OF ANY CRITICALLY STRONG
WINDS IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY BRIEF SUCH THAT CRITICAL
DELINEATION IS NOT WARRANTED.
2. TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN OK AND WRN
TX...THE RELATIVELY TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT
SSELY WINDS OF 15 TO OCCASIONALLY 20 MPH. WHILE SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN STRONGER WINDS TO
OCCUR...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF WRN OK AND WRN NORTH
TX...MODELS EXHIBIT NOTABLE VARIABILITY WITH REGARD TO THE
ANTICIPATED STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ADDITIONALLY...RH VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S...WITH SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING EVEN LOWER RH VALUES OCCURRING. HOWEVER...WEAK
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION EAST OF THE DRYLINE COULD OFFSET
VERTICAL MIXING OF DRY AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE...POTENTIALLY
PREVENTING THE ALIGNMENT OF CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS WITH CRITICALLY
LOW RH VALUES FOR ANY APPRECIABLE DURATION OF TIME. WHILE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS
LEND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WITH PRECIPITATION HAVING OCCURRED FRIDAY
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. AS SUCH...ANY POSSIBLE UPGRADE
TO CRITICAL DELINEATION WILL BE DEFERRED TO LATER OUTLOOKS/UPDATES.
ALSO...AN ISOLATED STORM COULD DEVELOP OVER FAR WRN TX DUE TO
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. A DRY THUNDERSTORM MODE COULD OCCUR
GIVEN NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A DEEP...WELL-MIXED
SUB-CLOUD LAYER...DRY SFC CONDITIONS...MODEST WLY FLOW WITHIN THE
CLOUD-BEARING LAYER...AND PWAT VALUES OF 0.55 TO 0.70 INCH.
HOWEVER...WITHOUT ANY APPRECIABLE MID/UPPER-LEVEL ASCENT...THE
COVERAGE OF ANY STORMS WOULD BE VERY SPARSE...WHICH WILL
SUBSTANTIALLY MITIGATE THE OVERALL THREAT FOR LIGHTNING-INDUCED
IGNITIONS.
...FAR SERN CA...SRN NV...NRN/WRN AZ...SRN UT...NWRN NM...SWRN CO...
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CRITICAL AREA...SLY TO SWLY WINDS OF 15
TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO COMBINE WITH RH VALUES
FROM THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MIDDLE TEENS TO RESULT IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WITH RELATIVELY WEAKER
MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION COMPARED TO FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST -- I.E. ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED CRITICAL AREA -- THE COVERAGE
AND DURATION OF ANY CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS IS EXPECTED TO
BE TOO SPOTTY AND BRIEF...RESPECTIVELY...TO WARRANT CRITICAL
DELINEATION.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...