Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 241617
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1117 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011
   
   VALID 241700Z - 251200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN AZ...SRN/SERN UT...SRN
   NV...FAR WRN CO...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN TX...WRN
   OK...FAR S-CNTRL KS...
   ...NRN AZ...SRN/SERN UT...SRN NV...FAR WRN CO...
   NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.
   
   ...ERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN TX...WRN OK...FAR S-CNTRL KS...
   LOW-LEVEL JET POSITIONED OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
   WEAKEN TO AROUND 30 KT DURING THE DAY...BUT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
   CENTERED OVER WRN TX/OK THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL AID IN RAPIDLY
   DEEPENING MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES...LEADING TO TEMPERATURES
   FROM 100-108F...MIN RH VALUES RANGING FROM 10-15 PERCENT...AND GUSTY
   S-SWLY SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED UP TO 30 MPH. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO THE
   PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS A WWD EXTENSION OF THE CRITICAL DELINEATION IN
   ORDER TO INCLUDE LUBBOCK/SRN I-27 CORRIDOR.
   
   ...CNTRL/NRN NM...
   LATEST MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SUSTAINED
   SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL /AOB 20 MPH/ FOR A
   CRITICAL DELINEATION OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN NM. HOWEVER...VERY
   HOT TEMPERATURES /90S TO 107/...RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND
   CONTINUED AREAS OF EXTREME DROUGHT/VERY DRY FUELS WILL SUPPORT NEAR
   TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ..GARNER.. 06/24/2011
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0357 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NW WILL
   GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD TOWARDS THE NRN/CANADIAN ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY
   SAT. A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OVER NRN CA WILL EJECT EWD ACROSS THE
   CNTRL INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH AN ATTENDANT BELT OF MODERATE TO
   STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS BEING MAINTAINED ACROSS THE SRN/ERN GREAT
   BASIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH WILL
   SHARPEN ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A DRYLINE MIXES EWD
   ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
   
   ...NRN AZ...SERN UT...FAR WRN CO/SRN NV...
   A BELT OF 40 TO 50 MPH W/SWLYS AT 500 MB WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE
   REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MIXING HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND
   550 MB...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 20 TO 25 MPH
   WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30S DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG
   WINDS WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITH A CONTINUED HOT/DRY AIR MASS
   CHARACTERIZED BY RH VALUES AGAIN FALLING TO BETWEEN 5 TO 12 PERCENT.
   
   ...ERN PANHANDLE/NWRN TX...WRN OK...FAR S-CNTRL KS...
   ALTHOUGH THE LLJ WILL UNDERGO DIURNAL WEAKENING....25 TO 35 MPH SLYS
   AT 850 MB SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LEE TROUGH
   SHARPENS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO SUSTAINED
   SURFACE WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH DURING MUCH OF THE DAY. AS
   TEMPERATURES BECOME HOT ONCE AGAIN /FROM 102 TO 108/...RH VALUES OF
   10 TO 15 PERCENT WILL REMAIN COMMON.
   
   ...CNTRL NM...
   A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW/MID-LEVEL WLYS WILL AID IN SEVERAL HOURS OF
   LOW RH /AOB 15 PERCENT/ DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
   PERSISTING INTO EARLY EVENING. HOT TEMPERATURES /FROM THE MIDDLE 90S
   TO NEAR 105/ WILL RESULT IN MIN RH VALUES OF 2 TO 6 PERCENT AS
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BECOME VERY DEEPLY MIXED. SUSTAINED SURFACE
   WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY PEAK AROUND 15 MPH...MITIGATING A
   CRITICAL AREA ISSUANCE.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 241618
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1118 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN AZ...SERN UT...FAR W-CNTRL
   CO...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A PORTION OF NWRN TX/SWRN OK...
   NO CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.
   
   ..GARNER.. 06/24/2011
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0500 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NRN/CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL
   CONTINUE ON A GRADUAL E/NEWD PROGRESSION TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
   PRAIRIES THROUGH EARLY SUN. AN IMPULSE ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW WILL
   EFFECTIVELY ELONGATE THE TROUGH SWWD. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN A BELT
   OF MODERATE TO STRONG MID-LEVEL W/SWLYS ACROSS THE SRN/ERN GREAT
   BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS. CONTINUED SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
   
   ...NRN AZ...SERN UT...FAR W-CNTRL CO...
   WHILE THE SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO D1...MODEL
   FORECASTS ARE HIGHLY CONSISTENT THAT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE
   SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON SAT. THIS SHOULD STILL YIELD BORDERLINE TO
   LOWER-END CRITICAL CONDITIONS AS SUSTAINED WINDS AVERAGE AROUND 20
   MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 30S. THIS WILL BE COMPENSATED BY THE
   PERSISTENT W/SWLY FLOW REGIME RESULTING IN LOWER RH VALUES /FROM 3
   TO 8 PERCENT/ THAN FRI.
   
   ...A PORTION OF NWRN TX/SWRN OK...
   MODEL FORECASTS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT THAT BOTH BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SLYS WILL BE DISPLACED
   FARTHER E OF THE DRYLINE COMPARED TO FRI. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE
   SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE SMALLER ON SAT
   AFTERNOON. FOLLOWING ECMWF/NAM GUIDANCE...A CORRIDOR OF BORDERLINE
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP AT PEAK HEATING WITH SUSTAINED
   SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20 MPH JUXTAPOSED WITH RH VALUES OF 15 TO 20
   PERCENT AND HOT TEMPERATURES NEAR 105.
   
   ...NRN/CNTRL NM...
   SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO FRI WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON SAT WITH PERSISTENT
   WLYS MAINTAINING SEVERAL HOURS OF LOW RH FROM LATE MORNING INTO
   EARLY EVENING. MIN RH VALUES OF 2 TO 8 PERCENT WILL REMAIN COMMON AS
   TEMPERATURES WARM INTO UPPER 80S TO NEAR 105. ALTHOUGH VERY DEEP
   VERTICAL MIXING MAY LEAD TO SURFACE WIND GUSTS INTO THE
   20S...SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD HOLD AROUND 15 MPH AND MITIGATE A
   CRITICAL THREAT.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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