Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Fri Nov 11 16:30:03 UTC 2011

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 111629
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1029 AM CST FRI NOV 11 2011
   
   VALID 111700Z - 121200Z
   
   ONLY CHANGE THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS TO REMOVE THE SEE TEXT HIGHLIGHT
   ACROSS SRN CA.  INCREASING PW DUE TO A MORE MOIST AIRMASS SPREADING
   ONSHORE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL ACT TO MITIGATE MIN RH
   CONCERNS.  OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST WARRANTS NO AMENDMENTS.
   
   ..SMITH.. 11/11/2011
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0241 AM CST FRI NOV 11 2011/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN AMPLIFIED ERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE WRN
   ATLANTIC...WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE
   GREAT PLAINS IN ITS WAKE. FARTHER W...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE UPPER
   TROUGH WILL DIVE SEWD ACROSS THE PAC NW...WHILE MODERATELY STRONG
   MIDLEVEL FLOW TO THE S OF AN ERN PACIFIC DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE SPREADS
   OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL AID IN INDUCING A WEAK LEE SFC
   TROUGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. OVER THE SERN CONUS...SFC HIGH
   PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE ERN GULF
   COAST AND SERN ATLANTIC COAST.
   
   ...TX PANHANDLE/S PLAINS...FAR WRN OK...ERN NM...
   ELEVATED TO PERIODIC LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK LEE SFC
   TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED...AND THE RESULTANT TIGHTENING
   PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SWLY SFC WINDS. CURRENT
   GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH WILL BE
   COMMON...WITH STRONGER WINDS MITIGATED BY WEAK LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
   FLOW AND THE PRESENCE OF A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER. DESPITE SEASONABLY
   COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...A VERY DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS /PWAT
   VALUES LESS THAN 0.15 INCH/ WILL YIELD RH VALUES IN THE LOWER-MID
   TEENS.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF COASTAL/INTERIOR FOOTHILLS AND PASSES OF SWRN CA...
   LOCALLY STRONG AFTERNOON SLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITHIN
   PORTIONS OF COASTAL/INTERIOR FOOTHILLS AND PASSES OF SWRN
   CA...INCLUDING THE TEJON PASS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEHACHAPI
   AND TEMBLOR MTNS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE LOS PADRES NATL FOREST.
   THIS WILL OCCUR AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES / I.E. 30-40 KTS AT 700
   MB/ ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF AN ERN PACIFIC CYCLONE. WITH STRONG
   DAYTIME MIXING AND AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...RH VALUES
   MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. THESE
   CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT...WITH
   PRIMARY LIMITING FACTORS PRECLUDING CRITICAL UPGRADE ATTM BEING
   EXPECTED LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE THREAT...ALONG WITH RECENT RAINFALL
   THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST WEEK. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
   DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPS.
   
   ...CNTRL/ERN OK...CNTRL/E TX...AR...NRN LA...SWRN MO...
   A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL RESIDE OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN
   PLAINS...THROUGH THE ARKLATEX AND TOWARDS THE LOWER-MID MS RIVER
   VALLEY. ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A SERN CONUS ANTICYCLONE...A
   LARGE AREA OF SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL DEVELOP...WITH RECENT
   MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS FOCUSED OVER ERN
   OK...NWRN AR...AND SWRN MO. HOWEVER...LATEST INFORMATION FROM AREA
   GACC/S AND RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL SUGGESTS FUELS ARE ONLY
   MARGINALLY RECEPTIVE ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA AS RAINFALL HAS BEEN
   PLENTIFUL IN THE PAST 30 DAYS. THE DRIEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
   OVER THE ARKLATEX INTO CNTRL/E TX AND NWRN LA...WHERE RH VALUES MAY
   FALL AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT. HOWEVER...A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SFC PRESSURE
   GRADIENT ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD ONLY SUPPORT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
   OF 10-15 MPH.
   
   ...FL PANHANDLE...SRN AL AND SRN GA...
   A SERN CONUS SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD AND BECOME
   CENTERED NEAR THE WRN FL PANHANDLE BY 2100Z....MAINTAINING A VERY
   DRY AIR MASS /E.G. PWAT SAMPLED AT .17 INCH IN BMX 11/0000Z
   SOUNDING/ ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN GULF COAST REGION. THIS WILL
   SUPPORT RH VALUES FALLING AS LOW AS THE UPPER TEENS DURING THE
   DAYTIME...WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT POSITIONED S/E OF
   THE AREA...ONLY LIGHT WINDS /AOB 10 MPH/ ARE ANTICIPATED TO
   DEVELOP...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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