Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Sat Jan 7 09:57:03 UTC 2012
Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 070955
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CST SAT JAN 07 2012
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE SEWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A MODERATELY STRONG
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN...CREATING
A THREAT OF ENHANCED OFFSHORE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF CA.
...SRN CA COASTAL RANGES AND FOOTHILLS...
THE TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT BASIN
HIGH WILL RESULT IN RAPIDLY INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE
COASTAL RANGES AND FOOTHILLS. CURRENT SYNOPTIC-SCALE AND HI-RES
GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS SUSTAINED WINDS OF GREATER THAN 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS ABOVE 50 MPH POSSIBLE. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO
DROP TO 15-25 PERCENT IN THESE AREAS...SUPPORTING ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT CRITICALLY LOW RH WILL NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD UNTIL AFTER THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT FUTURE FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE.
...PORTIONS OF NRN CA COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND CNTRL/NRN SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS...
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/NRN CA...NELY SFC WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF
20-30 MPH POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY INTO OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE COASTAL HILLS/MOUNTAINS NORTH OF THE BAY AREA. MINIMUM RH VALUES
OF 20-30 PERCENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
THESE AREAS.
MEANWHILE...ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CNTRL/NRN SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS...STRONG ELY DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL
DEVELOP...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AT FAVORED RIDGE TOPS AND
CANYONS. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...MINIMUM RH VALUES
AROUND 15 PERCENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
..DEAN.. 01/07/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...