Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Thu Mar 1 16:47:03 UTC 2012

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD1)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 011645
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1045 AM CST THU MAR 01 2012
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR W TX...TRANS-PECOS...FAR SERN
   NM...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
   ...W TX...TRANS-PECOS...FAR SERN NM...
   ONLY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK WAS THE REMOVAL OF THE WRN
   EDWARDS PLATEAU FROM THE CRITICAL DELINEATION DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
   FUEL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
   IS ON TRACK...WITH SUSTAINED WLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH AND RH VALUES
   RANGING FROM 5-15 PERCENT EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
   NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.
   
   ...SWRN CA...
   NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.
   
   ..GARNER/MOSIER.. 03/01/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0358 AM CST THU MAR 01 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
   INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF THE D2/FRI
   PERIOD...AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WEST. AT THE
   SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU
   NNE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A TRAILING PACIFIC COLD FRONT
   SWEEPING THROUGH TEXAS WHILE A POLAR FRONT MOVES SOUTH DOWN THE
   PLAINS. STRONG WLY FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS ACROSS SRN
   NM AND W TX WILL RESULT IN A THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
   BASIN WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MODERATE-TO-STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
   ACROSS SRN CA AND STRONG NLY FLOW DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY.
   
   ...W TX...SRN NM...SERN AZ...
   IN THE WAKE OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE POLAR
   FRONT...STRONG WLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS W
   TX...SRN NM...AND SERN AZ...WITH SUSTAINED SFC WINDS AOA 20 MPH
   LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY. MEANWHILE...DOWNSLOPE DRYING/WARMING IS
   LIKELY TO RESULT IN MIN RH VALUES AOB 15 PERCENT DURING THE
   AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS.
   
   NORTH OF THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS E-CNTRL NM AND THE TX S
   PLAINS...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO TEMP/RH CONDITIONS IN
   THE COOL POST-FRONTAL REGIME. IF TEMPS ARE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE
   50S...THEN CRITICAL RH VALUES AOB 15 PERCENT AND SUSTAINED SFC WINDS
   OF 25-30 MPH WILL RESULT IN A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. THIS
   REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE.
   
   ...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
   STRONG NLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY
   BEGINNING EARLY FRI...AS MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
   INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH ARE LIKELY FOR
   MOST OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WHILE TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
   COOL...A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 8-12
   PERCENT...LEADING TO A THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
   WHERE FUELS ARE RECEPTIVE.
   
   ...SWRN CA...
   A MULTI-DAY OFFSHORE WIND EVENT SHOULD COMMENCE EARLY FRI AS HIGH
   PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SUSTAINED WINDS
   AOA 20 MPH ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE COASTAL
   RANGES/FOOTHILLS AND IN FAVORED CANYONS/PASSES. PW VALUES INITIALLY
   AOA 0.25 INCHES WILL DROP INTO THE 0.1 - 0.15 INCH
   RANGE....RESULTING IN MINIMUM RH VALUES AOB 15 PERCENT IN
   DOWNSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS. WHILE THESE CONDITIONS WOULD NORMALLY FAVOR
   AN ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT...NO UPGRADE WILL BE MADE
   AT THIS TIME DUE TO ONLY MARGINAL FUEL DRYNESS ACROSS THE AREA.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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