Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Mon Mar 5 09:09:02 UTC 2012

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD1)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 050908
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0308 AM CST MON MAR 05 2012
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN AZ...MUCH OF SRN AND ERN
   NM...SERN CO...FAR WRN KS...NWRN OK/TX PANHANDLES...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CO RIVER
   VALLEY...
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY MORNING WILL
   QUICKLY DIG SEWD ACROSS CA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY EVENING. IN
   ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH...STRONG WLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE SWRN
   DESERTS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. AT THE SFC...A LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER
   THE GREAT BASIN AND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SEWD FROM THE
   PACIFIC NW TOWARD THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE
   EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
   THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
   PERSISTING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHERE GUSTY
   WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
   
   ...SERN AZ...MUCH OF SRN AND ERN NM...SERN CO...FAR WRN KS...NWRN
   OK/TX PANHANDLES...
   A LARGE AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE
   AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW STRENGTHENS OVER SRN NV/UT AND STRONG DEEP
   LAYER FLOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION. WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO
   LOW 80S WILL RESULT IN A DEEPLY MIXED/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
   ACROSS SERN AZ INTO SRN NM WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST RH
   VALUES ARE EXPECTED. WITH 850-700 MB FLOW PROGGED AROUND 30-50
   KT...GUST POTENTIAL SHOULD BE GREATEST HERE. EXPECT S/SW WINDS 20-25
   MPH GUSTING TO 45 MPH. WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
   DIGITS TO LOW TEENS F...RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 6-12 PERCENT.
   FARTHER NE ACROSS THE CRITICAL AREA...WIND SPEEDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT
   LOWER AND RH VALUES A BIT HIGHER. ACROSS ERN NM INTO THE OK/TX
   PANHANDLES AND SERN CO/FAR WRN KS...STRONGER MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL
   REMAIN A BIT FURTHER REMOVED FROM THIS AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
   SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THEREFORE...S/SW WINDS
   AROUND 20 MPH GUSTING TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH RH VALUES FROM
   10-15 PERCENT.
   
   ...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
   FEATURES INFLUENCING THE CRITICAL AREA FURTHER E WILL ALSO CREATE
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CO VALLEY WHERE FUEL
   CONDITIONS ARE DRY. SWLY WINDS AROUND 20-25 MPH GUSTING TO 40 MPH
   ARE EXPECTED. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S...RH VALUES WILL
   FALL TO AROUND 10 PERCENT.
   
   ...OK...ERN OK/TX PANHANDLES...CNTRL KS EWD INTO MO...
   VERY GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE
   GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. FUELS REMAIN DRY ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THIS AREA AS WELL. WHILE SLY WINDS AROUND 20-25 MPH GUSTING TO 40
   WILL BE POSSIBLE...RH VALUES FROM 30-40 PERCENT WILL LIMIT THE
   OVERALL THREAT.
   
   ..LEITMAN.. 03/05/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home