Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 061630
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1030 AM CST TUE MAR 06 2012
   
   VALID 061700Z - 071200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN AZ...MUCH OF NM...WRN
   TX...TX/OK PANHANDLES...ERN CO...WRN KS...FAR SERN WY AND WRN NEB...
   FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A BROAD SWATH OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS
   ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF THE SRN/CNTRL
   HIGH PLAINS...WHILE AN ELEVATED THREAT EXISTS TO THE EAST OF THESE
   AREAS AMIDST SLY RETURN FLOW. ALTHOUGH CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM A WEAK
   UPPER WAVE MAY INITIALLY LIMIT STRONGER HEATING...THE COMBINATION OF
   DOWNSLOPE AND INCREASINGLY WARM/DRY FLOW WILL SUFFICIENTLY
   COMPENSATE TO LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
   THREAT AREA.
   
   ...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
   MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CRITICAL DELINEATION TO HIGHLIGHT
   PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WHERE DRY VEGETATION WILL BE
   SUPPORTIVE OF FIRE SPREAD SHOULD IGNITION OCCUR. PREVIOUS FORECAST
   REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH EVEN STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN NV.
   WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WLY AND REMAIN STRONG LATE THIS EVENING...THEN
   SHIFT TO NWLY OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY
   RECOVERY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...SERN AZ...MUCH OF NM...WRN TX...TX/OK PANHANDLES...ERN CO...WRN
   KS...FAR SERN WY AND WRN NEB...
   MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE CRITICAL
   DELINEATION...SPECIFICALLY WHERE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
   LOW-MID FLOW WILL FAVOR SUFFICIENT WARMING/DRYING TO CONTRIBUTE TO A
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS
   ON TRACK. POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
   ACROSS SERN AZ AND MUCH OF NM.
   
   ...OK...CNTRL/ERN KS AND NEB...MUCH OF SRN IL...MO...AR...
   SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS A BROAD AREA FROM TX/LA NEWD TO THE
   GREAT LAKES REGION AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND
   HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT STAGNANT FARTHER EAST. WITH A DRIER
   AIR MASS...AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS A LARGE AREA AS
   WARM TEMPERATURES ALIGN WITH MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM NEAR
   25 TO 40 PERCENT. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF DRY GRASSES AND BELOW NORMAL
   RAINFALL OVER THE PAST MONTH...FIRE STARTS/SPREAD WILL BE QUITE
   POSSIBLE DESPITE NOT MEETING THE TECHNICAL CRITERIA REQUIRED FOR A
   CRITICAL DELINEATION. SEVERAL FIRES WERE NOTED PER SATELLITE IMAGERY
   YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 03/06/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0345 AM CST TUE MAR 06 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS CA
   AND INTO NRN AZ. AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...LEE TROUGHING WILL
   OCCUR ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND SW FLOW WILL INCREASE. FARTHER
   EAST...A SFC HIGH...CENTERED OVER VA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
   PERIOD...WILL SHIFT E IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. A TIGHT
   PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE
   AFOREMENTIONED LEE TROUGH. AS A RESULT...STRONG SLY SFC WINDS WILL
   EXIST OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST.
   
   ...SERN AZ...MUCH OF NM...WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES NWD INTO SERN CO/SERN
   WY/WRN KS AND NEB...
   SWLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN FURTHER DRYING OF AN ALREADY
   DRY AIR MASS /PWATS BELOW 0.2 INCH ON 00Z SOUNDINGS/ ACROSS THE
   AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED FROM SE AZ TO ERN
   NM WHERE GUSTS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. MORE MARGINAL CONDITIONS
   EXIST FURTHER EWD AS THE WINDS BACK TO A MORE SLY DIRECTION.
   ADDITIONALLY...A DIFFUSE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE AXIS
   WHERE THE WINDS BECOME MORE SLY...CREATING A SHARP GRADIENT OF
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE LOWEST RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED
   ACROSS SERN AZ INTO NM WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 8-14 DEG F RANGE AND
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL RESULT IN VALUES FROM 8-12 PERCENT.
   FURTHER N AND E ACROSS THE CRITICAL AREA...RH VALUES WILL BE
   SOMEWHAT HIGHER DUE TO HIGHER DEWPOINT TEMPS...WITH RH VALUES FROM
   12-18 PERCENT. DESPITE SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EWD PROGRESSION OF
   THE DRYLINE...WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED PREVIOUS CRITICAL RISK AREA
   EWD TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF W TX AND FAR SE NM WHICH ARE IN EXTREME
   TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
   
   ...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
   SUSTAINED 2O TO 25 MPH SW WINDS...WITH 35 MPH GUSTS...AND DRY FUEL
   CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH RH VALUES AOB 15 PERCENT TO CREATE
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
   EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...DROPPING
   RH VALUES TO NEAR THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD DURING
   THE LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   ...OK...ERN OK/TX PANHANDLES...CNTRL KS EWD INTO MO...
   AFOREMENTIONED STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN STRONG SLY
   WINDS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MIDWEST. RH
   VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT...LIMITING THE
   OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. SLY WINDS AROUND 20-25 MPH GUSTING TO
   40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WHILE CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL NOT TECHNICALLY
   BE MET...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE
   EXPECTED.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 061929
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0129 PM CST TUE MAR 06 2012
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SERN AZ...MUCH OF
   NM...TRANSPECOS...FAR W TX...PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...
   FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK. HIGH-END CRITICAL CONDITIONS
   ARE ESPECIALLY LIKELY ACROSS SRN NM AND FAR WRN TX...WHERE GUSTS TO
   NEAR 5O MPH ARE POSSIBLE. POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS
   EXPECTED FOR FAR SERN AZ AND SRN NM...THOUGH COOLER TEMPERATURES
   SHOULD HELP TO MITIGATE THE THREAT OVERNIGHT.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 03/06/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0400 AM CST TUE MAR 06 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER LEVEL LOW...CENTERED NEAR NRN AZ AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
   PERIOD...WILL MOVE SWWD...REACHING THE CNTRL AZ/NM BORDER. AT THE
   SFC...SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL AFFECT MUCH OF NM AND W TX WHILE
   A COLD FRONT PUSHES SWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE TX/OK
   PANHANDLES.
   
   ...FAR SERN AZ...MUCH OF NM... TRANS PECOS...FAR W TX...
   20 TO 25 MPH SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
   AREA...CONTINUING THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY. SFC TEMPERATURES
   WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER BUT MULTIPLE DAYS OF SW WINDS
   WILL RESULT IN A VERY DRY AIR MASS /RH VALUES 5-10 PERCENT/. A
   DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS W TX...WITH CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE WEST. THE CURRENT EWD EXTENT OF THE
   CRITICAL AREA IS LOCATED ALONG THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE
   DRYLINE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT EWD SHIFT IS POSSIBLE.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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