Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 061630
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST TUE MAR 06 2012
VALID 061700Z - 071200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN AZ...MUCH OF NM...WRN
TX...TX/OK PANHANDLES...ERN CO...WRN KS...FAR SERN WY AND WRN NEB...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A BROAD SWATH OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF THE SRN/CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS...WHILE AN ELEVATED THREAT EXISTS TO THE EAST OF THESE
AREAS AMIDST SLY RETURN FLOW. ALTHOUGH CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM A WEAK
UPPER WAVE MAY INITIALLY LIMIT STRONGER HEATING...THE COMBINATION OF
DOWNSLOPE AND INCREASINGLY WARM/DRY FLOW WILL SUFFICIENTLY
COMPENSATE TO LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
THREAT AREA.
...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CRITICAL DELINEATION TO HIGHLIGHT
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WHERE DRY VEGETATION WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF FIRE SPREAD SHOULD IGNITION OCCUR. PREVIOUS FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH EVEN STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN NV.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WLY AND REMAIN STRONG LATE THIS EVENING...THEN
SHIFT TO NWLY OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY
RECOVERY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
...SERN AZ...MUCH OF NM...WRN TX...TX/OK PANHANDLES...ERN CO...WRN
KS...FAR SERN WY AND WRN NEB...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE CRITICAL
DELINEATION...SPECIFICALLY WHERE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
LOW-MID FLOW WILL FAVOR SUFFICIENT WARMING/DRYING TO CONTRIBUTE TO A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS
ON TRACK. POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
ACROSS SERN AZ AND MUCH OF NM.
...OK...CNTRL/ERN KS AND NEB...MUCH OF SRN IL...MO...AR...
SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS A BROAD AREA FROM TX/LA NEWD TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT STAGNANT FARTHER EAST. WITH A DRIER
AIR MASS...AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS A LARGE AREA AS
WARM TEMPERATURES ALIGN WITH MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM NEAR
25 TO 40 PERCENT. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF DRY GRASSES AND BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST MONTH...FIRE STARTS/SPREAD WILL BE QUITE
POSSIBLE DESPITE NOT MEETING THE TECHNICAL CRITERIA REQUIRED FOR A
CRITICAL DELINEATION. SEVERAL FIRES WERE NOTED PER SATELLITE IMAGERY
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.
..HURLBUT.. 03/06/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0345 AM CST TUE MAR 06 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS CA
AND INTO NRN AZ. AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...LEE TROUGHING WILL
OCCUR ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND SW FLOW WILL INCREASE. FARTHER
EAST...A SFC HIGH...CENTERED OVER VA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WILL SHIFT E IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LEE TROUGH. AS A RESULT...STRONG SLY SFC WINDS WILL
EXIST OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST.
...SERN AZ...MUCH OF NM...WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES NWD INTO SERN CO/SERN
WY/WRN KS AND NEB...
SWLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN FURTHER DRYING OF AN ALREADY
DRY AIR MASS /PWATS BELOW 0.2 INCH ON 00Z SOUNDINGS/ ACROSS THE
AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED FROM SE AZ TO ERN
NM WHERE GUSTS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. MORE MARGINAL CONDITIONS
EXIST FURTHER EWD AS THE WINDS BACK TO A MORE SLY DIRECTION.
ADDITIONALLY...A DIFFUSE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE AXIS
WHERE THE WINDS BECOME MORE SLY...CREATING A SHARP GRADIENT OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE LOWEST RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SERN AZ INTO NM WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 8-14 DEG F RANGE AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL RESULT IN VALUES FROM 8-12 PERCENT.
FURTHER N AND E ACROSS THE CRITICAL AREA...RH VALUES WILL BE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER DUE TO HIGHER DEWPOINT TEMPS...WITH RH VALUES FROM
12-18 PERCENT. DESPITE SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EWD PROGRESSION OF
THE DRYLINE...WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED PREVIOUS CRITICAL RISK AREA
EWD TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF W TX AND FAR SE NM WHICH ARE IN EXTREME
TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
SUSTAINED 2O TO 25 MPH SW WINDS...WITH 35 MPH GUSTS...AND DRY FUEL
CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH RH VALUES AOB 15 PERCENT TO CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...DROPPING
RH VALUES TO NEAR THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON.
...OK...ERN OK/TX PANHANDLES...CNTRL KS EWD INTO MO...
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN STRONG SLY
WINDS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MIDWEST. RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT...LIMITING THE
OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. SLY WINDS AROUND 20-25 MPH GUSTING TO
40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WHILE CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL NOT TECHNICALLY
BE MET...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 061929
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CST TUE MAR 06 2012
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SERN AZ...MUCH OF
NM...TRANSPECOS...FAR W TX...PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...
FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK. HIGH-END CRITICAL CONDITIONS
ARE ESPECIALLY LIKELY ACROSS SRN NM AND FAR WRN TX...WHERE GUSTS TO
NEAR 5O MPH ARE POSSIBLE. POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED FOR FAR SERN AZ AND SRN NM...THOUGH COOLER TEMPERATURES
SHOULD HELP TO MITIGATE THE THREAT OVERNIGHT.
..HURLBUT.. 03/06/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0400 AM CST TUE MAR 06 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW...CENTERED NEAR NRN AZ AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WILL MOVE SWWD...REACHING THE CNTRL AZ/NM BORDER. AT THE
SFC...SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL AFFECT MUCH OF NM AND W TX WHILE
A COLD FRONT PUSHES SWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES.
...FAR SERN AZ...MUCH OF NM... TRANS PECOS...FAR W TX...
20 TO 25 MPH SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA...CONTINUING THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY. SFC TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER BUT MULTIPLE DAYS OF SW WINDS
WILL RESULT IN A VERY DRY AIR MASS /RH VALUES 5-10 PERCENT/. A
DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS W TX...WITH CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE WEST. THE CURRENT EWD EXTENT OF THE
CRITICAL AREA IS LOCATED ALONG THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE
DRYLINE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT EWD SHIFT IS POSSIBLE.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...