Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Wed Mar 7 09:16:03 UTC 2012

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 070914
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0314 AM CST WED MAR 07 2012
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SW NM..WRN
   TRANS-PECOS...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SERN AZ...MUCH OF NM...
   TRANS-PECOS...FAR W TX...TX PANHANDLE...
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A TRANSITION TO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL BE ONGOING AT THE
   BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH A SRN STREAM CLOSED LOW OVER SRN NV AND
   A NRN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL CANADA. SRN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL
   PROGRESS SEWD...REACHING W CNTRL NM BY THURS MORNING. A LARGE BELT
   OF STRONG SWLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...STRETCHING
   FROM SRN AZ THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL
   TRAVERSE SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...PROGRESSING THROUGH THE TX
   PANHANDLE AND NW OK BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A DRYLINE LOCATED
   ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL ADVANCE
   EWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE LOCATION
   OF THIS FEATURE AT END OF THE PERIOD BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED
   ALONG A NE TO SW ORIENTED LINE FROM THE FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE TO THE
   WRN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
   
   ...FAR SW NM AND EL PASO AREA...
   MULTIPLE DAYS OF SW WINDS HAVE KEPT THE AIR MASS DRY /0.16 INCH PWAT
   ON 00Z EPZ SOUNDING/ AND RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
   SINGLE DIGITS AS STRONG MIXING OCCURS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
   SUSTAINED 30 MPH WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
   THE AREA AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW. AS A
   RESULT...JUXTAPOSITION OF LOW RH VALUES AND STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE
   EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ...FAR SERN AZ...MUCH OF NM...TRANS-PECOS...FAR W TX...TX
   PANHANDLE...
   AFOREMENTIONED BELT OF STRONG SWLY FLOW WILL CREATE A LARGE REGION
   OF SUSTAINED 20-25 MPH...WITH 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH END
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ERN NM...WHERE TEMPERATURES
   ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S WITH DEWPOINT VALUES AROUND 5
   DEG F...RESULTING IN SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES.
   
   PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRYLINE INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE EWD
   EXTEND OF THE CRITICAL AREA BUT MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THIS FEATURE
   ACROSS THE ENTIRE TX PANHANDLE. THEREFORE...EXPANDED THE CRITICAL
   RISK AREA EWD TO ACCOUNT FOR RH VALUES AOB 15 PERCENT EXPECTED
   BEHIND THE DRYLINE.
   
   ..MOSIER/LEITMAN.. 03/07/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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