Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Wed Mar 7 16:39:03 UTC 2012
Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 071638
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1038 AM CST WED MAR 07 2012
VALID 071700Z - 081200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SERN AZ...PORTIONS
OF SRN/CNTRL NM...FAR WRN TX...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SERN AZ...MUCH OF NM...WRN
TX...TX PANHANDLE...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH STRONG SWLY WINDS ALOFT AND
WIDESPREAD SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING SURFACE
WINDS AND STRONGER GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST.
...FAR SERN AZ...PORTIONS OF SRN/CNTRL NM....FAR WRN TX...
ONLY A MINOR EXPANSION NEEDED TO THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL DELINEATION.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 25 TO 30 MPH WITH STRONG GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
ARE ALREADY BEING NOTED ACROSS THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA AS OF
16Z...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.
...FAR SERN AZ...MUCH OF NM...WRN TX...TX PANHANDLE...
12Z AREA SOUNDINGS REFLECT A CONTINUATION OF A DRY AIR MASS...AND
ALTHOUGH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE HAS BEEN NOTED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER WAVE...SPECIFICALLY AT TUCSON AND EL
PASO...A DRY SLOT NOTED ON WV IMAGERY IN COMBINATION WITH LOCALIZED
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS SHOULD RESULT IN FURTHER DRYING AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE
CRITICAL AREA. POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY WAS NOTED OVERNIGHT
FOR SERN AZ AND MUCH OF WRN/CNTRL NM...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
HERE NOW FALLING RAPIDLY AS DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUES. SEVERAL HOURS
OF MINIMUM VALUES NEAR 6 TO 12 PERCENT APPEAR ON TRACK.
ADDITIONALLY...A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT WILL BE NOTED THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH CURRENT WSWLY WINDS BECOMING MORE WLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...NWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER SERN AZ
AND WRN NM THIS EVENING...SPREADING EWD INTO CNTRL NM OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS DECREASING AFTER DARK. POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES CAN
BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. FARTHER E ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...NELY
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT...WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AND
GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY OCCURS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
CURRENT DELINEATION APPEARS ON TRACK...WITH MORE BRIEF DURATIONS OF
CRITICAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE NERN AND ERN MOST EXTENT.
...UPPER MID ATLANTIC...
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SEVERAL DAYS AGO...LITTLE MOISTURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE EAST...WITH GULF OBSERVATIONS JUST BEGINNING TO
REFLECT STRONGER MOISTURE RETURN ATTM WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
FARTHER N AND WELL REMOVED FROM THIS MOISTURE...A SURFACE HIGH HAS
REMAINED RATHER STAGNANT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. SLY WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN TODAY...BUT WITH VERY SLOW MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED INTO
THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC...THE ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS...AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES /10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES NEAR 30 PERCENT CAN BRIEFLY BE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
FAR ERN PA...NJ INTO SERN NY AND PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS
NARROW CORRIDOR HAS RECEIVED BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL THIS WINTER...AND
PRE-GREEN UP CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT.
..HURLBUT.. 03/07/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0314 AM CST WED MAR 07 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
A TRANSITION TO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL BE ONGOING AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH A SRN STREAM CLOSED LOW OVER SRN NV AND
A NRN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL CANADA. SRN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SEWD...REACHING W CNTRL NM BY THURS MORNING. A LARGE BELT
OF STRONG SWLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...STRETCHING
FROM SRN AZ THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL
TRAVERSE SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...PROGRESSING THROUGH THE TX
PANHANDLE AND NW OK BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A DRYLINE LOCATED
ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL ADVANCE
EWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE LOCATION
OF THIS FEATURE AT END OF THE PERIOD BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED
ALONG A NE TO SW ORIENTED LINE FROM THE FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE TO THE
WRN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
...FAR SW NM AND EL PASO AREA...
MULTIPLE DAYS OF SW WINDS HAVE KEPT THE AIR MASS DRY /0.16 INCH PWAT
ON 00Z EPZ SOUNDING/ AND RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AS STRONG MIXING OCCURS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED 30 MPH WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...JUXTAPOSITION OF LOW RH VALUES AND STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
...FAR SERN AZ...MUCH OF NM...TRANS-PECOS...FAR W TX...TX
PANHANDLE...
AFOREMENTIONED BELT OF STRONG SWLY FLOW WILL CREATE A LARGE REGION
OF SUSTAINED 20-25 MPH...WITH 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH END
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ERN NM...WHERE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S WITH DEWPOINT VALUES AROUND 5
DEG F...RESULTING IN SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES.
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRYLINE INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE EWD
EXTEND OF THE CRITICAL AREA BUT MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THIS FEATURE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE TX PANHANDLE. THEREFORE...EXPANDED THE CRITICAL
RISK AREA EWD TO ACCOUNT FOR RH VALUES AOB 15 PERCENT EXPECTED
BEHIND THE DRYLINE.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...