Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Wed Mar 7 16:39:03 UTC 2012

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 071638
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1038 AM CST WED MAR 07 2012
   
   VALID 071700Z - 081200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SERN AZ...PORTIONS
   OF SRN/CNTRL NM...FAR WRN TX...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SERN AZ...MUCH OF NM...WRN
   TX...TX PANHANDLE...
   FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH STRONG SWLY WINDS ALOFT AND
   WIDESPREAD SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING SURFACE
   WINDS AND STRONGER GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST.
   
   ...FAR SERN AZ...PORTIONS OF SRN/CNTRL NM....FAR WRN TX...
   ONLY A MINOR EXPANSION NEEDED TO THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL DELINEATION.
   SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 25 TO 30 MPH WITH STRONG GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
   ARE ALREADY BEING NOTED ACROSS THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA AS OF
   16Z...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
   EVENING.
   
   ...FAR SERN AZ...MUCH OF NM...WRN TX...TX PANHANDLE...
   12Z AREA SOUNDINGS REFLECT A CONTINUATION OF A DRY AIR MASS...AND
   ALTHOUGH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE HAS BEEN NOTED
   WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER WAVE...SPECIFICALLY AT TUCSON AND EL
   PASO...A DRY SLOT NOTED ON WV IMAGERY IN COMBINATION WITH LOCALIZED
   DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS SHOULD RESULT IN FURTHER DRYING AND THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE
   CRITICAL AREA. POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY WAS NOTED OVERNIGHT
   FOR SERN AZ AND MUCH OF WRN/CNTRL NM...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
   HERE NOW FALLING RAPIDLY AS DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUES. SEVERAL HOURS
   OF MINIMUM VALUES NEAR 6 TO 12 PERCENT APPEAR ON TRACK. 
   
   ADDITIONALLY...A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT WILL BE NOTED THROUGH THE
   DAY...WITH CURRENT WSWLY WINDS BECOMING MORE WLY THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
   AND OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...NWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER SERN AZ
   AND WRN NM THIS EVENING...SPREADING EWD INTO CNTRL NM OVERNIGHT WITH
   SPEEDS DECREASING AFTER DARK. POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES CAN
   BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. FARTHER E ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...NELY
   WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT...WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AND
   GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY OCCURS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
   PASSAGE.
   
   CURRENT DELINEATION APPEARS ON TRACK...WITH MORE BRIEF DURATIONS OF
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE NERN AND ERN MOST EXTENT.
   
   ...UPPER MID ATLANTIC...
   FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SEVERAL DAYS AGO...LITTLE MOISTURE
   REMAINS ACROSS THE EAST...WITH GULF OBSERVATIONS JUST BEGINNING TO
   REFLECT STRONGER MOISTURE RETURN ATTM WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
   FARTHER N AND WELL REMOVED FROM THIS MOISTURE...A SURFACE HIGH HAS
   REMAINED RATHER STAGNANT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. SLY WINDS WILL
   STRENGTHEN TODAY...BUT WITH VERY SLOW MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED INTO
   THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC...THE ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS...AND WARMING
   TEMPERATURES /10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/...MINIMUM RELATIVE
   HUMIDITIES NEAR 30 PERCENT CAN BRIEFLY BE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
   FAR ERN PA...NJ INTO SERN NY AND PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS
   NARROW CORRIDOR HAS RECEIVED BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL THIS WINTER...AND
   PRE-GREEN UP CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 03/07/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0314 AM CST WED MAR 07 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A TRANSITION TO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL BE ONGOING AT THE
   BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH A SRN STREAM CLOSED LOW OVER SRN NV AND
   A NRN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL CANADA. SRN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL
   PROGRESS SEWD...REACHING W CNTRL NM BY THURS MORNING. A LARGE BELT
   OF STRONG SWLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...STRETCHING
   FROM SRN AZ THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL
   TRAVERSE SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...PROGRESSING THROUGH THE TX
   PANHANDLE AND NW OK BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A DRYLINE LOCATED
   ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL ADVANCE
   EWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE LOCATION
   OF THIS FEATURE AT END OF THE PERIOD BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED
   ALONG A NE TO SW ORIENTED LINE FROM THE FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE TO THE
   WRN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
   
   ...FAR SW NM AND EL PASO AREA...
   MULTIPLE DAYS OF SW WINDS HAVE KEPT THE AIR MASS DRY /0.16 INCH PWAT
   ON 00Z EPZ SOUNDING/ AND RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
   SINGLE DIGITS AS STRONG MIXING OCCURS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
   SUSTAINED 30 MPH WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
   THE AREA AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW. AS A
   RESULT...JUXTAPOSITION OF LOW RH VALUES AND STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE
   EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ...FAR SERN AZ...MUCH OF NM...TRANS-PECOS...FAR W TX...TX
   PANHANDLE...
   AFOREMENTIONED BELT OF STRONG SWLY FLOW WILL CREATE A LARGE REGION
   OF SUSTAINED 20-25 MPH...WITH 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH END
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ERN NM...WHERE TEMPERATURES
   ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S WITH DEWPOINT VALUES AROUND 5
   DEG F...RESULTING IN SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES.
   
   PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRYLINE INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE EWD
   EXTEND OF THE CRITICAL AREA BUT MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THIS FEATURE
   ACROSS THE ENTIRE TX PANHANDLE. THEREFORE...EXPANDED THE CRITICAL
   RISK AREA EWD TO ACCOUNT FOR RH VALUES AOB 15 PERCENT EXPECTED
   BEHIND THE DRYLINE.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home