Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Sun Mar 18 07:41:03 UTC 2012

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 180740
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0240 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE NEB PANHANDLE...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE HIGH PLAINS SWD INTO THE TX
   TRANS-PECOS...
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POWERFUL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE PAC COAST EARLY THIS
   MORNING WILL ADVANCE EWD TOWARD THE INTERMOUNTAIN W BY LATE
   AFTERNOON. AS THIS TAKES PLACE...AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE LOCATED
   WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER SRN CA WILL EJECT INTO THE SRN
   ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG S-SWLY
   MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX...WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING
   THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
   DEEPEN OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WITH A SHARP LEE TROUGH EXTENDING
   SWD INTO ERN NM AND W TX.
   
   ...HIGH PLAINS SWD INTO THE TX TRANS-PECOS...
   EARLY MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A
   DRYLINE RETREATING WWD INTO ERN NM...FAR WRN KS AND WRN NEB.
   HOWEVER...THE MOIST LAYER IS QUITE SHALLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH
   WILL FAVOR RAPID BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AS DEEP LAYER S-SWLYS
   INTENSIFY BY LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE DRYLINE SHOULD ADVANCE
   EWD DURING THE AFTERNOON TOWARD A POSITION FROM ROUGHLY CNTRL SD/NEB
   SWD INTO WRN KS...THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE SWWD INTO THE PERMIAN
   BASIN. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND W OF THE DRYLINE ARE FORECAST TO WARM
   INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S...AND WILL AID IN MIN RH VALUES FROM 10-15
   PERCENT. 
   
   BY LATE AFTERNOON...A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
   SRN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL STRENGTHENING
   OF MIDLEVEL S-SWLYS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH 700 MB SPEEDS
   RANGING FROM 40-60 KT. THOUGH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS FROM 25-35 MPH
   WILL FAVOR HIGH END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
   HIGH PLAINS SWD INTO THE TX TRANS-PECOS...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
   INDICATES CIRRUS MAY RESIDE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE
   AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD NEGATIVELY IMPACT FULL SURFACE HEATING AND
   BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. FOR THIS REASON...A LARGE EXTREMELY CRITICAL
   DELINEATION WILL NOT BE INTRODUCED ATTM. HOWEVER...AN EXCEPTION HAS
   BEEN MADE FOR THE NEB PANHANDLE...WHERE LOCALLY VERY DRY FUEL
   CONDITIONS RESIDE...AND WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE
   LOW TEENS AND SUSTAINED SLY WINDS NEAR 40 MPH WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY IN
   EXCESS OF 50 MPH.
   
   ..GARNER.. 03/18/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home