Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Mon Mar 26 07:09:03 UTC 2012

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 260708
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0208 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF ERN
   CO...SERN WY AND WRN NEB PANHANDLE...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NM NWD INTO SERN MT...
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER FEATURE IS AN UPPER LOW /EVIDENT ON 06Z WV
   IMAGERY OVER SRN CA/ THAT WILL QUICKLY EJECT NEWD...CROSSING THE
   CNTRL ROCKIES BY EVENING AND REACHING ND LATE IN THE PERIOD.
   PREFRONTAL SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT
   TO THE WEST OF A DRYLINE OVER A BROAD PORTION OF THE PLAINS...WHILE
   A COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH THE CRITICAL/EXTREME AREA
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT. 
   
   MEANWHILE...A COOL AND DRY POST-FRONTAL REGIME WILL EXIST OVER MUCH
   OF THE EAST...WITH WIND SPEEDS PARTICULARLY STRONGER ACROSS THE
   NORTHEAST WHERE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF ERN CO...SERN WY AND WRN NEB PANHANDLE...
   SLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN LATE THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF
   THE COMPACT UPPER WAVE...AND AS THE SHALLOW NOCTURNAL INVERSION
   BEGINS TO ERODE...ALLOWING STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO MIX TO THE
   SURFACE. SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH
   /ISOLATED GUSTS ABOVE 50 MPH/ WILL BECOME LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. A
   COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
   AREA...WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO WLY AND REMAINING STRONG
   OVER WY/CO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE COLD FRONT PROJECTED
   TO MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA BY
   EVENING. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT...SPEEDS MAY
   REMAIN STRONG /WLY AOA 20 MPH/ OVER ERN WY AND THE NEB
   PANHANDLE...WITH LIGHTER SPEEDS TO THE SOUTH. 
   
   ALTHOUGH INITIAL CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL HEATING...SLY WINDS
   AND THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HIGH
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO MID 80S...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
   VALUES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. POST-FRONTAL
   RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER IN A DOWNSLOPE
   REGIME...WITH ONLY MODEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY EXPECTED
   OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT MAY TEMPER THE
   THREAT.
   
   ...ERN NM NWD INTO SERN MT...
   TO THE NORTH OF THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL DELINEATION...WINDS WILL BE
   QUITE STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF WY...WITH LOWER SPEEDS INTO MT.
   HOWEVER...MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL PRECLUDE THE
   ISSUANCE OF AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL...THOUGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S
   AND STRONG SWLYS SHIFTING TO WLY WILL SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT. THE CRITICAL WAS EXPANDED WWD INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL
   WY. 
   
   TO THE EAST...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO BE MARGINAL...BUT WITH
   STRONG SLY WINDS NOT SHIFTING TO WLY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. ON
   THE NRN FRINGE OF GREATER MOISTURE RETURN...ISOLATED DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND/OR DRYLINE/COLD
   FRONTAL MERGER OVER FAR ERN CO...WRN KS...THE NEB PANHANDLE...AND
   SWRN SD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...SHOULD CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BE
   OVERCOME. 
   
   FARTHER S...STRONG WSWLYS WILL SUPPORT A HIGH-END FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT...WITH FORECAST WINDS SPEEDS NEAR 20 TO 25 MPH. POOR RELATIVE
   HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...UPPER MID ATLANTIC...
   DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS A BROAD AREA FROM THE MID
   ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
   PASSAGE...AND WITH REINFORCING NWLY FLOW AS AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
   OFFSHORE OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL BE STRONGER TO THE
   NORTH...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 70 F OVER THE
   UPPER MID ATLANTIC MAY SUPPORT A BRIEFLY ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL INTO THE 20S. HOWEVER...STRONG
   COLD ADVECTION IS PROJECTED TO QUICKLY LEAD TO FALLING TEMPERATURES
   BY LATE AFTERNOON. 
   
   FARTHER N...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ONLY SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN
   THE 30S AND 40S OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...WITH 50S
   ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS OF NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH LOW
   RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST AND AN ABUNDANCE
   OF DRY FUELS ARE PRESENT...THE COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE THE
   LIMITING FACTOR FOR A HIGHLIGHTED AREA.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 03/26/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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