Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Mon Mar 26 16:48:03 UTC 2012
Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 261647
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
VALID 261700Z - 271200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF ERN
CO...SERN WY AND WRN NEB PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NM NWD INTO SERN MT...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. EXTENDED
EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA SLIGHTLY EWD ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE AND
CRITICAL AREA EWD INTO CNTRL NEB AND SWRN ND. ADDITIONALLY...
ISOLATED DRY TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AND A DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE BELOW.
...PORTIONS OF ERN CO...SERN WY AND WRN NEB PANHANDLE...
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SUSTAINED 30-40 MPH SW WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIR MASS AND
THERMAL RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE FRONT RIDGE COMBINED WITH DEEP BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S AND SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...A COLD
FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT /FROM
SWLY TO WLY/. THE MOST PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT WILL BE IN NERN CO AND
THE NEB PANHANDLE...WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 MPH
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS A RESULT...EXPANDED THE EXTREMELY
CRITICAL RISK EWD TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE NEB PANHANDLE. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NEB PANHANDLE... WIND SPEEDS AND GUST
INTENSITY/FREQUENCY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
...ERN NM NWD INTO SERN MT...
EXPANDED THE CRITICAL RISK EWD ACROSS NEB AND NEWD ACROSS SWRN ND TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG WINDS AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS EXPECTED TO
LINGER PAST SUNSET. ALSO EXPANDED NWWD ACROSS NERN WY WHERE STRONG
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING. OTHERWISE...KEPT THE
REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE CRITICAL RISK AREA UNCHANGED AS FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ADDITIONALLY...SOME DRY TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
/DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL BELOW/.
...UPPER MID ATLANTIC...
NO CHANGES NEEDED IN THIS AREA AS FORECAST THINKING REMAINS
ACCURATE. STRONG NWLY WINDS /AROUND 20 MPH/ ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES AOB 50F OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA SHOULD KEEP THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT LOW...DESPITE RH
VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT AND ABUNDANT DRY FUELS. FARTHER S...ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-50S
AND 60S AND RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT COMBINE WITH 15-20 MPH NWLY
WINDS. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOMORROW
/TUE/...LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
/DISCUSSED IN THE DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK/.
...DRY TSTM POTENTIAL...
RAPID SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. A DRYLINE/COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SFC LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
CNTRL/NRN PLAINS THIS EVENING. STRONG FORCING ALONG THIS COLD FRONT
COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB MAY RESULT IN A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS. DRY LOWER LEVELS AND FAST STORM MOTION COULD RESULT
IN LITTLE /IF ANY/ PRECIPITATION REACHING THE SFC WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. AS A RESULT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE CRITICAL AREA -- I.E. NEB
PANHANDLE EWD INTO CNTRL NEB AND SWRN SD.
..MOSIER.. 03/26/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER FEATURE IS AN UPPER LOW /EVIDENT ON 06Z WV
IMAGERY OVER SRN CA/ THAT WILL QUICKLY EJECT NEWD...CROSSING THE
CNTRL ROCKIES BY EVENING AND REACHING ND LATE IN THE PERIOD.
PREFRONTAL SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT
TO THE WEST OF A DRYLINE OVER A BROAD PORTION OF THE PLAINS...WHILE
A COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH THE CRITICAL/EXTREME AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT.
MEANWHILE...A COOL AND DRY POST-FRONTAL REGIME WILL EXIST OVER MUCH
OF THE EAST...WITH WIND SPEEDS PARTICULARLY STRONGER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA.
...PORTIONS OF ERN CO...SERN WY AND WRN NEB PANHANDLE...
SLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN LATE THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF
THE COMPACT UPPER WAVE...AND AS THE SHALLOW NOCTURNAL INVERSION
BEGINS TO ERODE...ALLOWING STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE. SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH
/ISOLATED GUSTS ABOVE 50 MPH/ WILL BECOME LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO WLY AND REMAINING STRONG
OVER WY/CO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE COLD FRONT PROJECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA BY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT...SPEEDS MAY
REMAIN STRONG /WLY AOA 20 MPH/ OVER ERN WY AND THE NEB
PANHANDLE...WITH LIGHTER SPEEDS TO THE SOUTH.
ALTHOUGH INITIAL CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL HEATING...SLY WINDS
AND THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO MID 80S...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. POST-FRONTAL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER IN A DOWNSLOPE
REGIME...WITH ONLY MODEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT MAY TEMPER THE
THREAT.
...ERN NM NWD INTO SERN MT...
TO THE NORTH OF THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL DELINEATION...WINDS WILL BE
QUITE STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF WY...WITH LOWER SPEEDS INTO MT.
HOWEVER...MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL PRECLUDE THE
ISSUANCE OF AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL...THOUGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S
AND STRONG SWLYS SHIFTING TO WLY WILL SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT. THE CRITICAL WAS EXPANDED WWD INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL
WY.
TO THE EAST...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO BE MARGINAL...BUT WITH
STRONG SLY WINDS NOT SHIFTING TO WLY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. ON
THE NRN FRINGE OF GREATER MOISTURE RETURN...ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND/OR DRYLINE/COLD
FRONTAL MERGER OVER FAR ERN CO...WRN KS...THE NEB PANHANDLE...AND
SWRN SD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...SHOULD CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BE
OVERCOME.
FARTHER S...STRONG WSWLYS WILL SUPPORT A HIGH-END FIRE WEATHER
THREAT...WITH FORECAST WINDS SPEEDS NEAR 20 TO 25 MPH. POOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
...UPPER MID ATLANTIC...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS A BROAD AREA FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND WITH REINFORCING NWLY FLOW AS AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL BE STRONGER TO THE
NORTH...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 70 F OVER THE
UPPER MID ATLANTIC MAY SUPPORT A BRIEFLY ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
THREAT AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL INTO THE 20S. HOWEVER...STRONG
COLD ADVECTION IS PROJECTED TO QUICKLY LEAD TO FALLING TEMPERATURES
BY LATE AFTERNOON.
FARTHER N...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ONLY SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S AND 40S OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...WITH 50S
ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS OF NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST AND AN ABUNDANCE
OF DRY FUELS ARE PRESENT...THE COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR A HIGHLIGHTED AREA.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...