Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Mon Apr 9 16:19:03 UTC 2012

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 091618
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1118 AM CDT MON APR 09 2012
   
   VALID 091700Z - 101200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL VA NEWD INTO SRN NEW
   ENGLAND...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND N-CNTRL IL /
   NWRN IND...
   MADE SEVERAL MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREAS.
    1) EXTENDED THE CRITICAL AREA FARTHER SW TO INCLUDE CNTRL VA --
   HERE TEMPS WILL BE WARM THAN FARTHER N WITH LOWER RH...ALTHOUGH
   WINDS WILL BE WEAKER AND APPROACH 20 MPH IN AREAS.  ALSO...ONGOING
   HOT SPOTS HAVE BEEN DETECTED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY INVOF THE BLUE
   RIDGE AND THE WV/VA BORDER IN THIS EXPANDED AREA.  2) REMOVED THE
   CRITICAL HIGHLIGHT ACROSS SERN IA AND CNTRL IND...WHERE EXPERIMENTAL
   4KM MODEL ENSEMBLE SHOWS LOWER PROBABILITY FOR THE JUXTAPOSITION OF
   LOW RH/STRONG WINDS THAN IN W-CNTRL IL NEWD INTO PARTS OF NWRN IND. 
   ELSEWHERE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
   
   ..SMITH.. 04/09/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0331 AM CDT MON APR 09 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A ZONE OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE NRN PLAINS
   ESEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A
   CLOSED RETROGRADING CYCLONE OVER ERN CANADA. WITHIN THIS REGIME..THE
   POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER
   PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND SRN NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS
   PARTS OF THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY AND MIDWEST...AS A DRY AIR MASS
   ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE NRN HALF OF THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS. FARTHER
   W...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FIXED OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WHILE AN
   UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE PACIFIC COAST.
   
   ...NRN VA NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...
   STRONG OFFSHORE WNWLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   BECOMES DEEPLY-MIXED BENEATH 40-50 KTS OF MIDLEVEL FLOW. MORNING SFC
   OBS SHOW DRY AIR CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE REGION...AS WELL AS
   UPSTREAM /OVER THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY/...WITH DEW POINTS
   GENERALLY AOB 30 F. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S N TO
   NEAR 70 S...CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES /BELOW 25 PERCENT MOST AREAS/
   APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP. ADDITIONALLY...THIS AREA HAS EXPERIENCED
   RECENT DRYNESS WITHIN THIS PERSISTENT OFFSHORE FLOW REGIME...LIKELY
   ENHANCING FUEL RECEPTIVENESS TO RAPID FIRE SPREAD. SFC OBS ALSO
   INDICATE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS MORNING /15-20
   MPH/...AND SHOULD ONLY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO SUNRISE. SUSTAINED
   WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK NEAR 20-25 MPH LATE MORNING/EARLY
   AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH COMMON.
   
   SOME MOISTENING APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF NOVA INTO
   DELMARVA AND SRN PA/NJ THIS AFTERNOON...AS A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES
   THE AREA. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF CRITICALLY LOW RH/STRONG WINDS
   APPEARS PROBABLE DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
   AFTERNOON...BEFORE RH VALUES BEGIN TO RISE.
   
   ...MUCH OF IA...NRN/CNTRL IL...NWRN IND...
   A PERSISTENT WNWLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER
   N-CNTRL CONUS...FAVORING SUSTAINED SFC WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH
   WITHIN A DEEPLY-MIXED DAYTIME BOUNDARY LAYER AND A MODERATE SFC
   PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE W. A DRY AIR MASS /E.G.
   PWAT VALUES NEAR 0.2 INCH/ WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE REGION...WITH
   MIN RH VALUES FALLING AOB 20 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
   LOWER-MID 60S. THESE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH PERSISTENT DRYNESS
   OBSERVED WITHIN THE PAST WEEK...WILL SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT OVER THE REGION.
   
   ...CNTRL/ERN SD...SRN ND...SRN MN...
   SIMILAR TO AREAS TO THE SE...PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS/SRN MN WILL
   REMAIN FIXED WITHIN A PERSISTENT WNWLY FLOW REGIME...MAINTAINING DRY
   BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS. A BUILDING SFC RIDGE OVER THE NRN HIGH
   PLAINS WILL SLOWLY EXPAND EWD...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF
   THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE
   CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN SHY OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OVER
   CNTRL/ERN SD AND SRN ND. OVER PORTIONS OF SRN MN...SUSTAINED WIND
   SPEEDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER /NEAR 20 MPH/...BUT A COOLER AIR
   MASS ADVECTING SWD FROM S-CNTRL CANADA /WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN
   THE 40S-LOWER 50S/ SHOULD RESULT IN MIN RH VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 20
   PERCENT.
   
   ...SRN APPALACHIANS...WRN CAROLINAS...
   SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS
   THIS REGION IS SITUATED ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER
   WLY FLOW. 00Z SOUNDINGS SAMPLED A DRY UPSTREAM AIR MASS /PWAT VALUES
   0.2-0.3 INCH/...WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY LATE MORNING.
   WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LEE
   OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL RESULT IN MIN RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE
   MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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