Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Tue Apr 10 09:40:04 UTC 2012

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD1)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 100939
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0439 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2012
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WRN NM...NERN AZ...ERN UT...FAR
   WRN CO...S-CNTRL WY...
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EWD TOWARDS THE WRN GREAT
   BASIN...WITH STRONG SLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW RESULTING IN ELEVATED TO
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM THE SOUTHWEST NWD INTO THE
   CNTRL ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...RETURN FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
   GREAT PLAINS AS A SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER-MS RIVER
   VALLEY...AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER WRN MT. FARTHER E...AN
   INITIALLY CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE AND BEGIN
   TO SHIFT OFFSHORE...WHILE NWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW MAINTAINS A DRY
   AIR MASS OVER THE SERN CONUS.
   
   ...WRN NM...NERN AZ...ERN UT...FAR WRN CO...S-CNTRL WY...
   A BROAD INCREASE IN SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
   OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ERN GREAT BASIN...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
   AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH. DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
   BENEATH MODERATE MIDLEVEL FLOW /30-50 MPH AT 500 MB/...COMBINED WITH
   A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING NRN
   ROCKIES SFC LOW...WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM
   20-30 MPH /GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH ACROSS ERN AZ/UT/. DRY BOUNDARY
   LAYER CONDITIONS WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA /PWAT VALUES BELOW 0.3
   INCH/...AND DESPITE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NOT BEING EXCESSIVELY WARM
   /60S-70S/...MIN RH VALUES OF 10-15 PERCENT APPEAR LIKELY. A PACIFIC
   COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WRN PORTIONS OF THE CRITICAL RISK AREA BY
   LATE AFTERNOON...AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE EWD AFTER 00Z.
   
   ...NERN WY...ERN MT...WRN ND...NWRN SD...
   S-SELY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO SFC
   PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF
   20-30 MPH FORECAST TO OCCUR. SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
   POSITIONED WELL S OF THE AREA...WITH DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS
   PREVAILING ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
   CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A STRONG INVERSION NEAR 1 KM AGL...LIMITING
   BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH
   THE MID-50S TO NEAR 60 F...AND MIN RH VALUES FALLING TO NEAR 30
   PERCENT. GIVEN STRONG WINDS AND RECENT DRYNESS OBSERVED OVER THE
   REGION...AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP.
   
   ...AL...FL PANHANDLE AND NRN FL...GA...CAROLINAS...ERN VA...
   DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SERN CONUS/MID-ATLANTIC
   REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE MID-MS
   RIVER VALLEY. A ZONE OF STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW ATTENDANT TO BASAL
   PORTION OF EWD MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE
   AREA...SUPPORTING SUSTAINED SFC WINDS OF 10-15 MPH. AS DAYTIME RH
   VALUES FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT...AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT
   APPEARS LIKELY TO MATERIALIZE...FURTHER ENHANCED BY ONGOING DROUGHT
   CONDITIONS OVER THE SERN CONUS.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 04/10/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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