Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 141631
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1131 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
   
   VALID 141700Z - 151200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NM...W TX...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR E-CNTRL CO...WRN KS...
   ...ERN NM...W TX...FAR E-CNTRL CO...WRN KS...
   STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TODAY. AS
   THIS OCCURS...RAPID SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
   CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
   SHOW THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RETREATED WWD INTO ERN NM AND FAR
   ERN CO. HOWEVER...STRONG DEEP-LAYER SWLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
   SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL MIX OUT
   MOISTURE AS A DRYLINE ADVANCES E. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S
   AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES WELL MIXED...MIN RH VALUES FROM 10-15
   PERCENT APPEAR PROBABLE. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG FLOW ALOFT
   /FROM 40-50 KT AT 700 MB/ AND THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...SUSTAINED
   WIND SPEEDS FROM 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE
   LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR A HIGH END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT.
   
   ...MID-ATLANTIC...NC PIEDMONT...AND NERN STATES...
   NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.
   
   ..GARNER.. 04/14/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0237 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE WRN CONUS INTO
   THE CNTRL PLAINS. A BELT OF VERY STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
   EXTEND ACROSS THE SRN SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROUGH...FROM SERN AZ NEWD
   THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE DEEPEST
   PORTION OF THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER THE FOUR
   CORNERS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE QUICKLY PROGRESSING INTO
   THE CNTRL PLAINS BY THE END OF PERIOD. AT THE SFC...RAPID LEE
   CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED OVER ERN CO DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
   SFC LOW THEN PROGRESSES NEWD ACROSS NEB AND INTO SD BY THE END OF
   PERIOD. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW SWD ACROSS CNTRL KS/WRN
   OK AND INTO W-CNTRL TX. 
   
   ...ERN NM...W TX...FAR E-CNTRL CO...WRN KS...
   SUSTAINED SWLY SURFACE WINDS GREATER THAN 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40
   MPH ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS A MOST OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS W OF THE
   AFOREMENTIONED DRYLINE. STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS ERN
   NM...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND ERN CO/WRN KS. IN THESE
   AREAS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 70S WITH
   DEWPOINT VALUES IN MID 20S. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES AROUND 15
   PERCENT ARE LIKELY. FARTHER S /TRANS-PECOS/...TEMPERATURES ARE
   EXPECTED TO BE WARMER /IN THE LOW 80S/ WITH RESULTANT RH VALUES
   BELOW 10 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE WEAKER ACROSS THIS REGION.
   CONSEQUENTLY...HIGH-END CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BUT THE
   DISSOCIATION OF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND THE LOWEST RH PRECLUDES THE
   NEED FOR AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA. PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK
   PANHANDLES AND ERN CO WERE EXCLUDED FROM THE CRITICAL AREA BASED ON
   ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION /AND RESULTANT MOIST FUELS/ DESPITE
   CONSISTENCY OF THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. 
   
   ...MID-ATLANTIC...NC PIEDMONT...AND NERN STATES... 
   PERSISTENT DRY REGIME WILL CONTINUE AS A SFC HIGH SLOWLY PUSHES
   OFFSHORE. SWLY SFC WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH AND
   RH VALUES ABOVE 25 PERCENT AREA-WIDE. THE LOWEST RH VALUES ARE
   EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES WHILE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
   EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE BRIEF
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DRY
   CONDITIONS LATELY.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 141637
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1137 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...W TX...
   NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.
   
   ...MID-ATLANTIC AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS...
   VARIOUS NAM MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW TO MID
   30S RH VALUES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
   APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SUN AFTERNOON. THOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
   FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THE PRECEDING 24 HRS...FUELS ARE
   STILL EXPECTED TO BE DRY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT MARGINALLY ELEVATED
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS GIVEN SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 10-15 MPH.
   
   ..GARNER.. 04/14/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0407 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIST ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
   A BELT OF VERY STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST JUST AHEAD OF
   THE TROUGH AXIS...FROM ERN NM NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO
   THE UPPER MIDWEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS BELT OF
   STRONG WINDS STAYS JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES NEWD
   THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SFC...A DEEP CYCLONE WILL TRAVERSE FROM
   THE NRN PLAINS EWD TO THE GREAT LAKES. A DRYLINE/COLD FRONT WILL
   EXTEND SWWD FROM THE SFC LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EWD AS THE SFC
   LOW MOVES EWD...MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO
   VALLEY SWWD THROUGH AR AND INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION OF TX AT
   THE END OF THE PERIOD.
   
   ...W TX...
   POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND MODERATELY
   STRONG DOWNSLOPE WLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DROP
   BELOW 20 PERCENT /EARLIEST ACROSS THE TX S PLAINS/. MAIN FACTOR
   LIMITING A CRITICAL DELINEATION IS THE STRENGTH/BREVITY OF THE
   STRONGEST WINDS. GUSTY W WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY
   AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BELT OF STRONG WINDS REMAINS OVER
   THE AREA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AS THE TROUGH
   MOVES EWD. THEREFORE...THERE IS SOME DISSOCIATION BETWEEN THE
   STRONGEST WINDS AND PEAK HEATING/LOWEST RH VALUES.
   ADDITIONALLY...BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONG WIND AND LOW RH IS OVER
   AN AREA WHERE FUEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MOIST FUELS. AS A RESULT OF
   ALL OF THESE FACTORS...DID NOT DELINEATE A CRITICAL RISK AREA
   ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF/LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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