Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 021638
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1138 AM CDT WED MAY 02 2012
   
   VALID 021700Z - 031200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN HALF OF NM / FAR W TX AND FAR
   WRN TX PANHANDLE...
   
   ...SERN HALF OF NM / FAR W TX AND FAR WRN TX PANHANDLE...
   NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. WITH TEMPERATURES
   EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 80S AND 90S ACROSS THE CRITICAL
   AREA...MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z ALBUQUERQUE RAOB TO ACCOUNT FOR
   ANTICIPATED SFC CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE CONSENSUS
   AMONGST SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SUGGEST DEEP MIXED
   LAYERS DEVELOPING AS LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. AS
   MIXED-LAYER HEIGHTS REACH AOA 10 KFT AGL...AND WITH A PW VALUE OF
   0.16 INCH PER THE 12Z ALBUQUERQUE RAOB...RH VALUES OF 5-10 PERCENT
   ARE EXPECTED. AND...WITH A ZONE OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW CROSSING
   THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING OVER THE SERN PERIPHERY OF A
   NE-SW-ELONGATED VORT MAX EXTENDING FROM THE SW CONUS ACROSS BAJA
   CALIFORNIA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC...SWLY TO WSWLY SFC WINDS OF 20-25
   MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY...SUPPORTING
   THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT...WHICH IS FURTHER SUBSTANTIATED BY
   EXPERIMENTAL SPC SSEO GUIDANCE. WHILE SIMILAR METEOROLOGICAL
   CONDITIONS MAY EXTEND FARTHER EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX
   PANHANDLE...TX SOUTH PLAINS...AND THE PERMIAN BASIN...THE OCCURRENCE
   OF RECENT WETTING RAINS IN MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THESE AREAS IS
   EXPECTED TO MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT TO THE EAST OF THE
   CRITICAL AREA.
   
   ...CNTRL WY...
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT THE AREA...AS A ZONE OF
   ENHANCED LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW -- E.G. 30-45 MPH OF WSWLY TO WLY FLOW
   WITHIN THE 3.5-10 KFT LAYER PER MEDICINE BOW WY PROFILER DATA --
   SUPPORTS WSWLY TO WLY SFC WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS
   VERTICAL MIXING INCREASES. WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IN 
   PLACE -- I.E. PW VALUE OF 0.38 INCH PER 12Z RIVERTON WY RAOB -- AND
   GIVEN DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
   UPPER TEENS TO THE 20S. HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF A WARMER AIR
   MASS...ANY CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON A
   BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS. FURTHERMORE...WITH FUEL GREEN-UP OCCURRING IN
   MANY AREAS...THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE FIRES SHOULD BE MITIGATED. AS
   SUCH...NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE BEING INTRODUCED.
   
   ..COHEN.. 05/02/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT WED MAY 02 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PROGRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE
   FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS.  IN THE LOW LEVELS...A LEE LOW OVER
   ERN CO AND SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SWD FROM THE LOW OVER
   THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE BLACK HILLS
   IN RESPONSE TO A NRN ROCKIES UPPER DISTURBANCE.  TO THE W OF THE SRN
   PLAINS DRYLINE...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
   THE SERN HALF OF NM AND PARTS OF FAR W/NW TX.
     
   ...SERN HALF OF NM / FAR W TX AND FAR WRN TX PANHANDLE...
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THIS
   REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE
   PREVIOUS FORECAST/S.  MODEL GUIDANCE POSSESSES GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
   DEPICTION OF A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM NRN
   MEXICO.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE
   PROFILES...SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP MIXING OF INCREASINGLY STRONG SWLY
   BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WITHIN A WARM/DRY AIRMASS EMANATING FROM THE
   SWRN DESERTS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT RH WILL FALL INTO
   THE 5-10 PERCENT RANGE.  CONSENSUS AMONGST MODELS SHOW 0-1 KM MEAN
   FLOW 20-25 KTS...SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 20-25 MPH...WITH
   HIGHER GUSTS.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 021638
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1138 AM CDT WED MAY 02 2012
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   
   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THE CONFIDENCE IN
   CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS /MARGINAL IN NATURE/ OCCURRING IN
   JUXTAPOSITION WITH LOW/VERY LOW RH VALUES IS CURRENTLY TOO LOW FOR A
   CRITICAL DESIGNATION AT THIS TIME.
   
   ...WRN CO / NRN AND ERN UT / NRN HALF OF NV...
   NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...WITH
   ELEVATED TO SPOTTY/BRIEF INSTANCES OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA. PER THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL
   CONSENSUS...THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPACT LOCATIONS FARTHER
   SOUTH ACROSS ERN UT IN ADDITION TO AREAS ADDRESSED WITHIN THE
   PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW
   EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT...CONFIDENCE IN MORE SUBSTANTIAL
   DURATION/COVERAGE OF A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS TOO LOW FOR
   ANY CRITICAL DESIGNATION AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..COHEN.. 05/02/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT WED MAY 02 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER THE NWRN QUARTER OF THE CONUS WILL
   PERSIST THRU THE DAY 2 PERIOD AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER
   DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE PACIFIC NW.  A BELT
   OF STRONG MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OVERHEAD THIS REGION.  IN THE
   LOW LEVELS...A LEE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
   THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
   PROBABLY EVOLVE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WRN CO WESTWARD INTO
   THE GREAT BASIN.
   
   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   W OF A DRYLINE...HOT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS AND DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN
   LOW RH /5-10 PERCENT/ ACROSS THE AREA.  MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES
   CONSIDERABLY REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW --GFS
   MODEL STRONGER...OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS WEAKER. 
   NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW RH/HOT TEMPS AND POTENTIAL
   FOR STRONG WINDS...ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS --PERHAPS
   LOCALLY CRITICAL-- WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
   
   ...WRN CO / NRN HALF OF NV-UT...
   SWLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AS LOW
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.  MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS POCKETS OF STRONGER
   SUSTAINED WINDS /20 MPH/ BUT SUBSTANTIAL VARIABILITY REMAINS IN THE
   LOW LEVEL PROFILES CONCERNING RH/WIND ATTM.  SURFACE WINDS AROUND
   15-20 MPH /HIGHER GUSTS/ WILL PROBABLY BE COMMON ACROSS THE
   REGION...WITH RH RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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