Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 071624
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT MON MAY 07 2012
VALID 071700Z - 081200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR LWR CO RIVER VALLEY...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SWRN NM...
UPGRADED PORTIONS OF SWRN NM TO A CRITICAL RISK.
...LWR CO RIVER VALLEY...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THIS REGION. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA INDICATE RH VALUES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S.
NLY/NNELY WIND SPEEDS HAVE ALREADY REACHED 15 MPH AND ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY OVER SRN UT/NRN AZ WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SWWD THROUGHOUT THE
DAY... WEAKENING THE SUPPORT FOR STRONG WINDS OVER THE AREA.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY WANE WITH SUSTAINED
NLY WINDS DROPPING BELOW 20 MPH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS...THE ALREADY LOW RH VALUES AND INCREASING WINDS WILL
RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION UNTIL AT
LEAST MID-AFTERNOON.
...SERN AZ...SWRN NM...
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DRY SLOT...ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER SRN UT/NRN AZ...CURRENTLY MOVING EWD
FROM SERN AZ INTO SWRN NM. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS DRY
SLOT BY DRYING THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE RESULTING IN
PWAT VALUES BELOW 0.2 INCH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR STRONG WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA COINCIDENT
WITH THIS DRY SLOT...RESULTING IN A JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONG WINDS
AND LOW RH VALUES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST COMPUTER MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES SWLY WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ABOVE 20
MPH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER SWRN NM. AS A RESULT...UPGRADED
THAT AREA TO A CRITICAL RISK. OUTSIDE OF THIS RISK AREA /ESPECIALLY
OVER SERN AZ/...ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.
...DRY T-STORM POTENTIAL: CNTRL NM....
STRONG ELY WINDS WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE FLOW AND...GIVEN THE MODEST
INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AOA 500 J/KG/...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR A DRY THUNDERSTORM EXISTS IN AND AROUND ABQ AND SAF
WHERE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES BEFORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES. ADDITIONALLY...STORM
MOTION GREATER THAN 35 MPH COULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION TOTALS LESS
THAN 0.1 INCH FOR A FEW AREAS. ANTICIPATED ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE
PRECLUDES A CRITICAL RISK BUT AN ENHANCED THREAT OF DRY
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON.
..MOSIER.. 05/07/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT MON MAY 07 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SRN UT/NRN AZ
TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASING MIDLEVEL NLYS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
WINDS OVER THE LWR CO RIVER VALLEY. FARTHER E...MODERATE MIDLEVEL
SWLYS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS SERN AZ AND
SWRN NM. ELSEWHERE...A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE W TOWARD
CNTRL PORTIONS OF NM.
...LWR CO RIVER VALLEY...
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...EARLY MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VERY POOR
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS TAKING PLACE...WHICH WILL FAVOR THE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME
HEATING. THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS WILL YIELD A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT LASTING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
THREAT SUBSIDING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE.
...SERN AZ...SWRN NM...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE
WIND SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY OVER SWRN NM WHERE
WINDS MAY EXCEED 20 MPH FOR A FEW HRS. GIVEN THIS TREND...ELEVATED
TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE AS RH
VALUES FALL TO 10-15 PERCENT.
...CNTRL/S-CNTRL NM...
COMBINATION OF A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT ENTERING CNTRL NM AND MODEST
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/S-CNTRL
NM. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A THREAT FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 071704
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 PM CDT MON MAY 07 2012
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
NO CHANGES NEEDED.
..MOSIER.. 05/07/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT MON MAY 07 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL ADVANCE SWD INTO SWRN AZ BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE W OF THE LOW OVER
THE SRN CA DESERTS. FARTHER E...SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE W TOWARD THE
AZ/NM BORDER...AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...