Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 071624
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1124 AM CDT MON MAY 07 2012
   
   VALID 071700Z - 081200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR LWR CO RIVER VALLEY...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SWRN NM...
   UPGRADED PORTIONS OF SWRN NM TO A CRITICAL RISK. 
   
   ...LWR CO RIVER VALLEY...
   NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THIS REGION. SURFACE
   OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA INDICATE RH VALUES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED
   INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S.
   NLY/NNELY WIND SPEEDS HAVE ALREADY REACHED 15 MPH AND ARE EXPECTED
   TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW
   CURRENTLY OVER SRN UT/NRN AZ WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SWWD THROUGHOUT THE
   DAY... WEAKENING THE SUPPORT FOR STRONG WINDS OVER THE AREA.
   CONSEQUENTLY...THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY WANE WITH SUSTAINED
   NLY WINDS DROPPING BELOW 20 MPH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
   REGARDLESS...THE ALREADY LOW RH VALUES AND INCREASING WINDS WILL
   RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION UNTIL AT
   LEAST MID-AFTERNOON.
   
   ...SERN AZ...SWRN NM...
   CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DRY SLOT...ASSOCIATED WITH AN
   UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER SRN UT/NRN AZ...CURRENTLY MOVING EWD
   FROM SERN AZ INTO SWRN NM. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS DRY
   SLOT BY DRYING THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE RESULTING IN
   PWAT VALUES BELOW 0.2 INCH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. UPPER-LEVEL
   SUPPORT FOR STRONG WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA COINCIDENT
   WITH THIS DRY SLOT...RESULTING IN A JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONG WINDS
   AND LOW RH VALUES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST COMPUTER MODEL
   GUIDANCE INDICATES SWLY WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ABOVE 20
   MPH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER SWRN NM. AS A RESULT...UPGRADED
   THAT AREA TO A CRITICAL RISK. OUTSIDE OF THIS RISK AREA /ESPECIALLY
   OVER SERN AZ/...ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
   POSSIBLE. 
   
   ...DRY T-STORM POTENTIAL: CNTRL NM....
   STRONG ELY WINDS WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE FLOW AND...GIVEN THE MODEST
   INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AOA 500 J/KG/...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST
   POTENTIAL FOR A DRY THUNDERSTORM EXISTS IN AND AROUND ABQ AND SAF
   WHERE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES BEFORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   ASSOCIATED WITH A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES. ADDITIONALLY...STORM
   MOTION GREATER THAN 35 MPH COULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION TOTALS LESS
   THAN 0.1 INCH FOR A FEW AREAS. ANTICIPATED ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE
   PRECLUDES A CRITICAL RISK BUT AN ENHANCED THREAT OF DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 05/07/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT MON MAY 07 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SRN UT/NRN AZ
   TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
   INCREASING MIDLEVEL NLYS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
   WINDS OVER THE LWR CO RIVER VALLEY. FARTHER E...MODERATE MIDLEVEL
   SWLYS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS SERN AZ AND
   SWRN NM. ELSEWHERE...A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE W TOWARD
   CNTRL PORTIONS OF NM.
   
   ...LWR CO RIVER VALLEY...
   SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS
   THE AREA DURING THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IN
   ADDITION...EARLY MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VERY POOR
   OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS TAKING PLACE...WHICH WILL FAVOR THE RAPID
   DEVELOPMENT OF SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME
   HEATING. THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS WILL YIELD A
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT LASTING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
   THREAT SUBSIDING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE.
   
   ...SERN AZ...SWRN NM...
   MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE
   WIND SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY OVER SWRN NM WHERE
   WINDS MAY EXCEED 20 MPH FOR A FEW HRS. GIVEN THIS TREND...ELEVATED
   TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE AS RH
   VALUES FALL TO 10-15 PERCENT.
   
   ...CNTRL/S-CNTRL NM...
   COMBINATION OF A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT ENTERING CNTRL NM AND MODEST
   MIDLEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/S-CNTRL
   NM. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
   WILL ALSO BE PRESENT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A THREAT FOR DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 071704
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1204 PM CDT MON MAY 07 2012
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   NO CHANGES NEEDED.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 05/07/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT MON MAY 07 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL ADVANCE SWD INTO SWRN AZ BY LATE TUESDAY
   AFTERNOON...WITH DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE W OF THE LOW OVER
   THE SRN CA DESERTS. FARTHER E...SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE W TOWARD THE
   AZ/NM BORDER...AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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