Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Wed May 9 15:37:02 UTC 2012
Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 091536
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1036 AM CDT WED MAY 09 2012
VALID 091700Z - 101200Z
ADDED SEE TEXT OVER ERN AZ/WRN NM FOR DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
...DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: ERN AZ/WRN NM...
UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER BAJA CONTINUES TO ADVECT MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHWEST. THE 12Z TUS AND ABQ SOUNDINGS SHOWED
MODEST MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE MID-LEVEL AND COMPUTER MODELS
FORECAST THIS INCREASE TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MOST OF SERN
AZ AND SWRN NM ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE RH VALUES ABOVE 30 PERCENT AND
AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AREAS FARTHER N SHOULD HAVE MORE ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE
AND DRIER LOW-LEVELS WITH RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT BY THE
AFTERNOON. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN MODEST INSTABILITY ABOVE THE DRY L0W-LEVELS IN THESE
AREAS. AS A RESULT...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT THE CLASSIC
INVERTED-V SOUNDING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS
WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HAS IMPROVED FUEL
CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA BUT A FEW LOCATIONS STILL HAVE A
HIGH OBSERVED FIRE DANGER CLASS. LARGELY MARGINAL FUEL CONDITIONS
AND THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE DRY THUNDERSTORM THREAT PRECLUDE THE
DELINEATION OF ANY CRITICAL AREAS BUT AN ELEVATED THREAT WILL EXIST
THIS AFTERNOON.
..MOSIER.. 05/09/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT WED MAY 09 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE TODAY AS ONE
TROUGH ENTERS THE PAC NW AND ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE NERN
CONUS. ELSEWHERE...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL RESIDE OVER NRN MEXICO.
MOISTURE DRAWN WWD AROUND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WILL AID
IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SWRN CONUS.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...