Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Wed May 9 15:37:02 UTC 2012

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 091536
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1036 AM CDT WED MAY 09 2012
   
   VALID 091700Z - 101200Z
   
   ADDED SEE TEXT OVER ERN AZ/WRN NM FOR DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
   
   ...DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: ERN AZ/WRN NM...
   UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER BAJA CONTINUES TO ADVECT MID-LEVEL
   MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHWEST. THE 12Z TUS AND ABQ SOUNDINGS SHOWED
   MODEST MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE MID-LEVEL AND COMPUTER MODELS
   FORECAST THIS INCREASE TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MOST OF SERN
   AZ AND SWRN NM ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE RH VALUES ABOVE 30 PERCENT AND
   AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
   HOWEVER...AREAS FARTHER N SHOULD HAVE MORE ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE
   AND DRIER LOW-LEVELS WITH RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT BY THE
   AFTERNOON. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD
   RESULT IN MODEST INSTABILITY ABOVE THE DRY L0W-LEVELS IN THESE
   AREAS. AS A RESULT...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT THE CLASSIC
   INVERTED-V SOUNDING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS
   WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HAS IMPROVED FUEL
   CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA BUT A FEW LOCATIONS STILL HAVE A
   HIGH OBSERVED FIRE DANGER CLASS. LARGELY MARGINAL FUEL CONDITIONS
   AND THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE DRY THUNDERSTORM THREAT PRECLUDE THE
   DELINEATION OF ANY CRITICAL AREAS BUT AN ELEVATED THREAT WILL EXIST
   THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 05/09/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT WED MAY 09 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE TODAY AS ONE
   TROUGH ENTERS THE PAC NW AND ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE NERN
   CONUS. ELSEWHERE...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL RESIDE OVER NRN MEXICO.
   MOISTURE DRAWN WWD AROUND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WILL AID
   IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SWRN CONUS.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home