Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 151624
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1124 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012
   
   VALID 151700Z - 161200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN GREAT BASIN SWD INTO NWRN
   AZ...
   EXPANDED CURRENT CRITICAL AREA SWD INTO W-CNTRL AZ AND TRIMMED ERN
   EXTENT OUT OF MUCH OF SWRN UT. ADDED SEE TEXT FOR SERN AZ AND FOR
   POSSIBLE DRY THUNDER ACROSS NRN GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES. 
   
   ...SRN GREAT BASIN SWD INTO NWRN AZ...
   UPPER LOW HAS TRACKED A LITTLE FARTHER SE THAN INITIALLY
   ANTICIPATED...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED POTENTIAL OF CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER W-CNTRL AZ. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
   SUSTAINED SLY WINDS WILL APPROACH 20-25 MPH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
   WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. VERY WARM AND DRY AIR MASS /PWATS
   0.11 IN AND 0.17 IN ON 12Z FGZ AND VEF SOUNDINGS RESPECTIVELY/
   RESIDES OVER THE AREA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MUCH OF THIS
   AREA EXPERIENCED POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WITH RH VALUES ALREADY
   BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. MORE SELY TRACK OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN
   SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 20 MPH FOR AREAS S OF THE CURRENT RISK.
   THEREFORE...EXPANDED THE RISK AREA SWD. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
   BE AOB 20 MPH ACROSS MOST OF UT WITH MOIST FUELS ACROSS ALL BUT THE
   FAR SW. CONSEQUENTLY... TRIMMED THE EWD EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL RISK
   TO INCLUDE ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF SW UT.  
   
   ...SERN AZ...
   CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW ELY WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS
   THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 20 MPH UNTIL THE
   LATE AFTERNOON...WHEN SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE UPPER
   LOW WEAKENS. THERE IS A SMALL PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE EARLY
   AFTERNOON WHEN WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH WILL COINCIDE WITH RH VALUES
   BELOW 15 PERCENT. AS A RESULT...ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY/LOCALLY CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. BREVITY OF THE JUXTAPOSITION OF LOW RH AND
   STRONG WINDS PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A CRITICAL AREA.
   
   ...DRY T-STORM POTENTIAL: NRN GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES...
   MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LOW
   OVER ERN CA/WRN NV MAY RESULT IN VERY ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. NEAR-RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES
   AND VERY DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL PREVENT MUCH OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
   WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER...WITH
   WEAK LIFT AND LOW INSTABILITY...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
   SHOULD BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 05/15/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0251 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BREAKDOWN OF THE WRN U.S. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A
   COMPACT BUT INTENSE MID LEVEL VORTEX MOVES EAST ACROSS NV. WATER
   VAPOR SATL LOOP...GPS PW DATA AND SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE THAT THIS
   SYSTEM IS DETACHED FROM MORE SUBSTANTIAL DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE AND
   THIS IS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER INLAND.
   ASIDE FROM ISOLATED HIGH-BASED TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN
   GREAT BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH FORCED ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
   LOW/TROUGH...A BELT OF 30-40KT SWLY/SLY WINDS ROUNDING THE BASE OF
   THE ADVANCING TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS SRN NV...NW AZ...AND SW UT
   COINCIDENT WITH MAX HEATING.
   
   ELSEWHERE...A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
   UPPER MIDWEST. BREEZY POST-FRONTAL NWLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY COINCIDE
   WITH RH AOB 40 PERCENT WHERE ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER
   MN. HOWEVER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
   
   ...ERN NV...NWRN AZ...SWRN UT...
   EXPECT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY
   ACROSS THESE AREAS AS UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
   MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT IS CONTRIBUTING TO DRIER THAN AVERAGE
   FUELS WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...REACHING
   95-100F IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 65-70F IN NRN PORTIONS OF THE
   CRITICAL AREA AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BELT OF
   STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE ADVANCING
   TROUGH...DEEP MIXING WILL PROMOTE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT OF STRONGER
   SWLY/SLY WINDS TO THE SURFACE WHERE SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25-30 MPH
   AND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THE HIGH TEMPS AND STRONGER
   WINDS WILL COINCIDE WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 5 AND 15 PERCENT
   RESULTING IN CRITICAL CONDITIONS SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID
   FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 151742
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1242 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ADDED DISCUSSION REGARDING DRY T-STORM POTENTIAL OVER CNTRL/NRN
   ROCKIES.
   
   ...FOUR CORNERS AREA...
   NO CHANGES NEEDED. ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY/LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. MAIN FACTOR LIMITING CRITICAL ISSUANCE IS
   THE BREVITY/ISOLATION OF WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 MPH. 
   
   ...DRY T-STORM POTENTIAL: CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES...
   SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE EWD PROGRESSING UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH
   MODEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ENHANCED TOPOGRAPHIC LIFT
   MAY RESULT IN A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVELS ARE VERY DRY AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
   CLASSIC INVERTED-V SHAPE. CONSEQUENTLY...IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DO
   DEVELOP THEY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE
   PRECIPITATION. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A VERY ISOLATED THREAT AND
   ONLY MEAGER INSTABILITY. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS OVER
   ESTIMATED THE AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND OVER FORECAST THE
   AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
   PAST TWO DAYS. THESE FACTORS LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
   REGARDING THE DRY T-STORM POTENTIAL. AS SUCH...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY
   HIGHLIGHTS FOR THESE AREAS. REGARDLESS...THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED
   CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS
   
   ..MOSIER.. 05/15/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0359 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED AND FLOW WILL
   BECOME GENERALLY WEAKER ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS
   ESPECIALLY THE CASE FOR THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM THE
   GREAT BASIN TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO
   CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGING PERSISTS FROM THE PLAINS
   TO THE MIDWEST. A DECAYING/STALLED COLD FRONT SHOULD LIE ACROSS THE
   OH VALLEY WHILE THE STRONGER SEGMENT OF THIS FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS TO
   PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST. A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
   THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE
   IN DIURNAL TSTMS FROM VA TO FL.
   
   ...FOUR CORNERS AREA...
   DESPITE WEAKENING...A BELT OF MODEST FLOW IN THE BASE OF THE
   MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD EAST FROM NRN AZ AND SRN UT DURING THE
   DAY. AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO 70S AND LOW 80S...RH MAY DROP INTO
   THE TEENS WITH WINDS INCREASING TO ABOUT 15-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
   GUSTS. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS FROM NERN AZ INTO ERN UT AND NWRN
   NM SHOULD FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IN THE
   FOUR CORNERS REGION BUT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
   CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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