Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 151624
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012
VALID 151700Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN GREAT BASIN SWD INTO NWRN
AZ...
EXPANDED CURRENT CRITICAL AREA SWD INTO W-CNTRL AZ AND TRIMMED ERN
EXTENT OUT OF MUCH OF SWRN UT. ADDED SEE TEXT FOR SERN AZ AND FOR
POSSIBLE DRY THUNDER ACROSS NRN GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES.
...SRN GREAT BASIN SWD INTO NWRN AZ...
UPPER LOW HAS TRACKED A LITTLE FARTHER SE THAN INITIALLY
ANTICIPATED...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED POTENTIAL OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER W-CNTRL AZ. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
SUSTAINED SLY WINDS WILL APPROACH 20-25 MPH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. VERY WARM AND DRY AIR MASS /PWATS
0.11 IN AND 0.17 IN ON 12Z FGZ AND VEF SOUNDINGS RESPECTIVELY/
RESIDES OVER THE AREA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MUCH OF THIS
AREA EXPERIENCED POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WITH RH VALUES ALREADY
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. MORE SELY TRACK OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 20 MPH FOR AREAS S OF THE CURRENT RISK.
THEREFORE...EXPANDED THE RISK AREA SWD. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AOB 20 MPH ACROSS MOST OF UT WITH MOIST FUELS ACROSS ALL BUT THE
FAR SW. CONSEQUENTLY... TRIMMED THE EWD EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL RISK
TO INCLUDE ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF SW UT.
...SERN AZ...
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW ELY WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS
THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 20 MPH UNTIL THE
LATE AFTERNOON...WHEN SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE UPPER
LOW WEAKENS. THERE IS A SMALL PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WHEN WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH WILL COINCIDE WITH RH VALUES
BELOW 15 PERCENT. AS A RESULT...ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY/LOCALLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. BREVITY OF THE JUXTAPOSITION OF LOW RH AND
STRONG WINDS PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A CRITICAL AREA.
...DRY T-STORM POTENTIAL: NRN GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES...
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LOW
OVER ERN CA/WRN NV MAY RESULT IN VERY ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. NEAR-RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES
AND VERY DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL PREVENT MUCH OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER...WITH
WEAK LIFT AND LOW INSTABILITY...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED.
..MOSIER.. 05/15/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0251 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
A BREAKDOWN OF THE WRN U.S. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A
COMPACT BUT INTENSE MID LEVEL VORTEX MOVES EAST ACROSS NV. WATER
VAPOR SATL LOOP...GPS PW DATA AND SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE THAT THIS
SYSTEM IS DETACHED FROM MORE SUBSTANTIAL DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE AND
THIS IS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER INLAND.
ASIDE FROM ISOLATED HIGH-BASED TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN
GREAT BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH FORCED ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH...A BELT OF 30-40KT SWLY/SLY WINDS ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE ADVANCING TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS SRN NV...NW AZ...AND SW UT
COINCIDENT WITH MAX HEATING.
ELSEWHERE...A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. BREEZY POST-FRONTAL NWLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY COINCIDE
WITH RH AOB 40 PERCENT WHERE ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER
MN. HOWEVER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
...ERN NV...NWRN AZ...SWRN UT...
EXPECT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY
ACROSS THESE AREAS AS UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT IS CONTRIBUTING TO DRIER THAN AVERAGE
FUELS WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...REACHING
95-100F IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 65-70F IN NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CRITICAL AREA AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BELT OF
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE ADVANCING
TROUGH...DEEP MIXING WILL PROMOTE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT OF STRONGER
SWLY/SLY WINDS TO THE SURFACE WHERE SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25-30 MPH
AND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THE HIGH TEMPS AND STRONGER
WINDS WILL COINCIDE WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 5 AND 15 PERCENT
RESULTING IN CRITICAL CONDITIONS SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID
FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 151742
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
ADDED DISCUSSION REGARDING DRY T-STORM POTENTIAL OVER CNTRL/NRN
ROCKIES.
...FOUR CORNERS AREA...
NO CHANGES NEEDED. ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY/LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. MAIN FACTOR LIMITING CRITICAL ISSUANCE IS
THE BREVITY/ISOLATION OF WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 MPH.
...DRY T-STORM POTENTIAL: CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES...
SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE EWD PROGRESSING UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH
MODEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ENHANCED TOPOGRAPHIC LIFT
MAY RESULT IN A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVELS ARE VERY DRY AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
CLASSIC INVERTED-V SHAPE. CONSEQUENTLY...IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP THEY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A VERY ISOLATED THREAT AND
ONLY MEAGER INSTABILITY. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS OVER
ESTIMATED THE AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND OVER FORECAST THE
AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
PAST TWO DAYS. THESE FACTORS LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE DRY T-STORM POTENTIAL. AS SUCH...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THESE AREAS. REGARDLESS...THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS
..MOSIER.. 05/15/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0359 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED AND FLOW WILL
BECOME GENERALLY WEAKER ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY THE CASE FOR THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM THE
GREAT BASIN TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGING PERSISTS FROM THE PLAINS
TO THE MIDWEST. A DECAYING/STALLED COLD FRONT SHOULD LIE ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY WHILE THE STRONGER SEGMENT OF THIS FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS TO
PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST. A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE
IN DIURNAL TSTMS FROM VA TO FL.
...FOUR CORNERS AREA...
DESPITE WEAKENING...A BELT OF MODEST FLOW IN THE BASE OF THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD EAST FROM NRN AZ AND SRN UT DURING THE
DAY. AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO 70S AND LOW 80S...RH MAY DROP INTO
THE TEENS WITH WINDS INCREASING TO ABOUT 15-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS FROM NERN AZ INTO ERN UT AND NWRN
NM SHOULD FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IN THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION BUT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...