Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 171636
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1136 AM CDT THU MAY 17 2012
   
   VALID 171700Z - 181200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR OWENS VALLEY...GREAT
   BASIN...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...
   ...OWENS VALLEY...GREAT BASIN...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...
   NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT CRITICAL AREA. EARLY MORNING
   SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VERY POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY ACROSS
   NW AZ/SRN NV/SW UT AND RH VALUES ARE ALREADY BELOW 15 PERCENT. AS
   HEATING MIXES THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND HEIGHTS FALL IN CONJUNCTION
   WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH...BOTH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND GUST
   FREQUENCY/INTENSITY SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THIS ENTIRE REGION.
   HIGH-END CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NW AZ/SRN NV/FAR SW
   UT AS 20-25 MPH SUSTAINED SLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH...RH
   VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...AND VERY DRY
   FUELS ARE ALL JUXTAPOSED FOR MORE THAN 8 HOURS. ONLY FACTOR LIMITING
   EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS WIND SPEEDS. FARTHER NW /CNTRL AND
   WRN NV...OWENS VALLEY/...CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   BY THE AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE
   NRN GREAT BASIN. NWLY WINDS...INCREASED MOISTURE...AND SLIGHTLY
   COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
   LIKELY EXTEND FROM SRN NV NEWD TO NRN UT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
   
   ...SWRN WY AND WRN CO...
   NO CHANGES NEEDED. DRY TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
   BRIEF/ISOLATED AS THIS AREA HAS WEAK INSTABILITY/MARGINAL SHEAR.
   BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FARTHER N /NRN ROCKIES/ BUT
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT DRY TSTM ACTIVITY AND
   THREAT OF LIGHTNING-CAUSED IGNITION.
   
   ...TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO SWRN MN...
   NO CHANGES NEEDED. SUSTAINED 20-25 MPH SLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30
   MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
   ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL.
   HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD GREEN UP SHOULD KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT
   LOW.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 05/17/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT THU MAY 17 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE WEST...WITH STRONGER JET
   WINDS SPREADING ACROSS CA...THE GREAT BASIN AND AZ. AN ATTENDANT
   SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NRN PLAINS SWWD INTO THE GREAT
   BASIN IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SUPPORTING A BROAD SWATH OF
   STRENGTHENED SURFACE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...GREAT
   BASIN...AND CNTRL U.S. 
   
   ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...A POTENT UPPER TROUGH AN ITS ATTENDANT
   SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE...WITH A DRIER
   POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS SETTLING OVER THE REGION.
   
   ...OWENS VALLEY...GREAT BASIN...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...
   WLY/SWLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE OF THE
   UPPER TROUGH...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 20 TO 25 MPH. AMPLE
   SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
   LAYER...WITH STRONG GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH REACHING THE
   SURFACE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN. GIVEN THE
   ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS AND DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS...WELL
   ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
   APPEAR PROBABLE ACROSS A BROAD AREA. BY EVENING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED
   TO SHIFT TO NWLY OVER THE WRN GREAT BASIN AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
   THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE SLOW TO
   RECOVER. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE SRN GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE
   PERIOD.
   
   ...SWRN WY AND WRN CO...
   REMNANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SUBTLE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW OBSERVED
   OVER THE UT/WY/CO BORDER ON 07Z WV IMAGERY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
   OCCURS. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE.
   
   ...TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO SWRN MN...
   LOW LEVEL SLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL
   U.S. AS A WRN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. DRY SLY RETURN FLOW AND
   SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL HEIGHTEN THE FIRE THREAT IN ANY
   AREAS THAT REMAIN DRY...THOUGH WIDESPREAD GREEN UP SHOULD GENERALLY
   MITIGATE THE THREAT.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 171812
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0112 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2012
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST...
   ...SOUTHWEST...
   NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT CRITICAL AREA. POOR OVERNIGHT
   RECOVERY WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES LESS THAN 15 PERCENT BY LATE
   MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE CRITICAL AREA. ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT
   OVER NERN AZ/NWRN NM WILL RESULT IN A QUICK INCREASE OF WIND SPEEDS
   ABOVE 20 MPH AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS ACROSS THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
   GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER
   INCREASES. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DECENT FETCH OF
   UPPER/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
   THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE
   SOUTHWEST. THIS RESULTS IN SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEPTH OF
   THE MIXING. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS TREND...RESULTING
   IN LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER MIN RH VALUES THAN ON THU.
   REDUCED MIXING COULD ALSO RESULT IN A REDUCED FREQUENCY/INTENSITY OF
   WIND GUSTS. REGARDLESS...CONDITIONS WILL EASILY MEET CRITICAL
   CRITERIA BUT WILL NOT UPGRADE ANY AREAS TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL BASED
   ON PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CLOUD COVER/MIXING.
   WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AS THE TROUGH MOVES E
   OF THE AREA AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.  
   
   ...CNTRL STATES...
   PREVIOUS FORECAST IS STILL VALID. NO CHANGES NEEDED.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 05/17/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0321 AM CDT THU MAY 17 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A WRN TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH
   STRONGER JET WINDS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MAINTAINING A FIRE
   THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE...SLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
   ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. 
   
   AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EAST...WITH A DRY POST-FRONTAL
   AIR MASS CONTINUING IN THE NORTHEAST.
   
   ...SOUTHWEST...
   HIGH-END CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING TO
   EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS A STRONGER JET PROGRESSES
   THROUGH THE AREA. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED
   SWLY WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH BY
   AFTERNOON. STRONGER GUSTS TO 50 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS E
   CNTRL/NERN AZ AND NWRN NM. INITIAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20S
   WILL QUICKLY FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS AS
   SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S F DEVELOP. POOR
   RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...CNTRL STATES...
   LOW-LEVEL SLYS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE OF A WRN
   TROUGH. ALTHOUGH CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE ALONG THE LEE
   AREAS OF THE SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES...ONGOING GREEN UP WILL PRECLUDE A
   HIGHLIGHTED AREA. TO THE EAST...A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
   OCCUR COMPARED TO D1/THU...THOUGH WIDESPREAD RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
   THE 30S WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED THREAT ACROSS LOCALIZED AREAS WHERE
   GREEN UP HAS NOT YET OCCURRED.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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