Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 181644
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1144 AM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012
   
   VALID 181700Z - 191200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A LARGE PART OF THE ERN TWO-THIRDS
   OF AZ...SERN UT...WRN NM...PARTS OF SWRN CO...A SMALL PART OF THE
   TRANS-PECOS REGION OF SWRN TX...
   ...A LARGE PART OF THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF AZ...SERN UT...WRN
   NM...PARTS OF SWRN CO...A SMALL PART OF THE TRANS-PECOS REGION OF
   SWRN TX...
   
   NO CHANGES REQUIRED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH-END CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS WITH BORDERLINE EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
   EXPECTED ACROSS NERN AZ INTO NWRN NM WHERE SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES
   WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG SWLY WINDS NEAR 20-30 MPH GUSTING TO 40-50
   MPH. THE BRIEF/SPOTTY NATURE OF EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL
   PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE PER COLLABORATION WITH LOCAL WFO/S. ELSEWHERE IN
   THE CRITICAL AREA...RH VALUES FROM 8-14 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED WITH
   WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH GUSTING TO 45 MPH. ALTHOUGH IT HAS BEEN
   PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN A SEE TEXT SECTION...IT IS WORTH NOTING HERE
   AS WELL THAT ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN
   SECTIONS OF THE CRITICAL AREA FROM SERN UT INTO SWRN CO THIS
   AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING...STRONG AND
   ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
   
   ...WEST OF THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN AZ TOWARD THE
   LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY -- WIND/RH...
   
   NO CHANGES REQUIRED.
   
   ...NORTHEAST OF THE CRITICAL AREA INTO PORTIONS OF NWRN CO...FAR
   NERN UT...S-CNTRL WY -- WIND/RH...
   
   NO CHANGES REQUIRED. 
   
   ...EAST OF THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN
   ROCKIES AND ADJACENT CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS -- WIND/RH...
   
   NO CHANGES REQUIRED. THE LATEST FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE MET ON AT LEAST A LOCALLY OR BRIEF BASIS
   ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...AS
   PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...UNFAVORABLE FUELS AND RECENT PRECIPITATION
   WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION DESPITE BORDERLINE FAVORABLE
   METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS.
   
   ...SERN UT...PORTIONS OF CO AND NWRN NM...WRN KS -- DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS...
   
   NO CHANGES REQUIRED.
   
   ..LEITMAN.. 05/18/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0352 AM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF AN EWD-MOVING...COMPOSITE TROUGH OVER
   THE WRN UNITED STATES...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
   TRACK EWD FROM PARTS OF SRN CA/NV ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION AND
   THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES BEFORE REACHING THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS OF CO
   AND NM BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. A SPEED MAXIMUM ACCOMPANYING THE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRUSH ACROSS PARTS OF THE SWRN STATES...CNTRL
   GREAT BASIN...AND THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES...SUPPORTING AREAS OF STRONG
   SFC WINDS. ALSO...IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING WLY COMPONENT OF THE
   FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES...A LEE TROUGH WILL
   STRENGTHEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...A LARGE PART OF THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF AZ...SERN UT...WRN
   NM...PARTS OF SWRN CO...A SMALL PART OF THE TRANS-PECOS REGION OF
   SWRN TX -- WIND/RH...
   AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SPEED MAXIMUM CROSSES THE AREA CONCURRENT WITH
   THE DEEPENING OF THE MIXED LAYER...SWLY TO WSWLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY
   INCREASE BY LATE MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH AND
   GUSTS OF 35-50 MPH BECOMING COMMON THIS AFTERNOON. RH VALUES ARE
   EXPECTED TO FALL TO 7-13 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
   MIDDLE 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTH. POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY
   IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. AND...WITH MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT
   CONDITIONS IN PLACE...A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST
   TODAY.
   
   THE STRONGEST OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
   OCCUR ACROSS NERN/E-CNTRL AZ AND NWRN/W-CNTRL NM...WHERE HIGH-END
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY. ALSO IN THESE AREAS...SOME
   THREAT FOR MARGINALLY EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY EXIST.
   HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PLUME OF MOISTURE LEADING THE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS...WHICH MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH-LEVEL
   CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY THAT COULD INHIBIT /1/ SFC HEATING.../2/ THE
   DEPTH OF VERTICAL MIXING...AND...THUS.../3/ THE STRENGTH OF SFC
   WINDS...TO SOME DEGREE. ALTERNATIVELY...THIS MOISTURE MAY HAVE
   CROSSED MUCH OF THE REGION BY PEAK HEATING WITH THE PROGRESSION OF
   THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...YIELDING DEEPER VERTICAL MIXING AND STRONGER
   SFC WIND SPEEDS. THESE FACTORS BREED UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
   SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WOULD REACH EXTREMELY CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON
   ANY MORE THAN A SPOTTY/BRIEF BASIS. ACCORDINGLY...AN UPGRADE TO
   EXTREMELY CRITICAL DESIGNATION IS NOT BEING MADE AT THIS TIME.
   REGARDLESS...HIGH-END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
   LIKELY ACROSS NERN/E-CNTRL AZ AND NWRN/W-CNTRL NM.
   
   ...WEST OF THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN AZ TOWARD THE
   LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY -- WIND/RH...
   WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...REINFORCED BY SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ON
   THE BACKSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AREAS OF CRITICALLY LOW RH
   VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 7-13
   PERCENT ARE ANTICIPATED AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO
   THE MIDDLE 90S. AND...WITH WLY WINDS OF 10 TO LOCALLY/BRIEFLY 20
   MPH...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE OF CONCERN.
   HOWEVER...WITH THIS AREA BEING DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE STRONGER
   TROPOSPHERIC FLOW DURING PEAK HEATING...CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED
   WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON ANY MORE THAN A
   BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS.
   
   ...NORTHEAST OF THE CRITICAL AREA INTO PORTIONS OF NWRN CO...FAR
   NERN UT...S-CNTRL WY -- WIND/RH...
   AS THE SPEED MAXIMUM CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SWLY WINDS OF
   20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN COMBINATION
   WITH RH VALUES GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.
   HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION -- I.E. GENERALLY FROM
   THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S -- MOSTLY BEING COOLER COMPARED TO
   THOSE FARTHER SOUTH...RH VALUES ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO FALL
   TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS.
   
   ...EAST OF THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN
   ROCKIES AND ADJACENT CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS -- WIND/RH...
   TO THE WEST OF A N-S-ORIENTED DRYLINE ACCOMPANYING THE
   AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH...SSWLY WINDS OF 15 TO
   OCCASIONALLY/LOCALLY 20 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED AS THE DEEP BOUNDARY
   LAYER ALLOWS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MANIFESTED AT THE SFC. RH
   VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
   THE LOWEST READINGS -- FROM 7 TO 14 PERCENT -- ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS /WEST OF THE DRYLINE/. THIS IS WHERE THE
   WARMEST SFC TEMPERATURES -- IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE 90S -- ARE
   ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...WITH THE ZONE OF STRONGER MID/UPPER-LEVEL
   FLOW NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING...AND
   WITHOUT A TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF THE DRYLINE...THE
   CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND
   SPEEDS IS TOO LOW FOR CRITICAL DESIGNATION AT THIS TIME.
   ADDITIONALLY...AREAS OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE PAST
   COUPLE OF WEEKS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND AREAS OF
   ONGOING FUEL GREEN-UP MAY MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   REGARDLESS...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE OF CONCERN IN
   LOCATIONS WHERE FUELS REMAIN DRY.
   
   TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...A COMPARATIVELY TIGHTER PRESSURE
   GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT STRONGER SFC WINDS -- I.E. SLY AT 20-25 MPH
   WITH HIGHER GUSTS -- THOUGH HIGHER BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE
   EXPECTED TO KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. AREAS OF FUEL
   GREEN-UP SHOULD ALSO MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...SERN UT...PORTIONS OF CO AND NWRN NM...WRN KS -- DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS...
   ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH /1/ THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.../2/ OROGRAPHIC
   EFFECTS...AND /3/ THE DRYLINE WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AMIDST MAINLY MARGINAL BUOYANCY.
   AND...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   INVERTED-VEE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FEATURING A DEEP MIXED
   LAYER...COMBINED WITH MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING AT LEAST
   MODEST STORM MOTIONS...A DRY THUNDERSTORM MODE IS
   ANTICIPATED...ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR GUSTY/ERRATIC SFC WINDS IN
   MICROBURSTS. HOWEVER...WITH PW VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.5 INCH
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THE COVERAGE OF ANY DRY THUNDERSTORMS IS
   EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. WHILE SLIGHTLY HIGHER PW VALUES ARE
   ANTICIPATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN KS...THIS REGION WILL BE REMOVED
   FROM THE RELATIVELY STRONGER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH...AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 181645
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1145 AM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   NO CHANGES REQUIRED.
   
   ..LEITMAN.. 05/18/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0353 AM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS...A COMPOSITE TROUGH...INITIALLY OVER THE
   HIGH PLAINS...WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER THE LOWER PLAINS TOWARD THE
   MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. THE COMPOSITE TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY
   AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN ITS BASE LIFTS NEWD. A ZONE OF
   MODESTLY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   WHILE LYING GENERALLY TO THE EAST OF ITS AXIS. WEAK RIDGING WILL
   OCCUR UPSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF THE NWRN STATES AND GREAT BASIN...AND
   DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN STATES...WHILE A
   BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE SERN STATES.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF W TX...ERN/SRN NM...
   TO THE WEST OF A DRYLINE...AND TO THE SOUTH OF A SWD-ADVANCING COLD
   FRONT...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
   TO THE MIDDLE TEENS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS IN CORRESPONDENCE
   WITH SFC TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO THE 90S. SWLY
   TO WLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE
   ANTICIPATED. WHILE LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
   BRIEFLY OCCUR WHERE FUELS ARE DRY...CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS ARE NOT
   EXPECTED AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING
   ZONE OF MODESTLY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW MOVE WELL AWAY FROM THE
   REGION. FURTHERMORE...THE COMBINATION OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
   DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS IN MANY AREAS...AND FUEL GREEN-UP
   ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS...WILL MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   ACCORDINGLY...NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE BEING INCLUDED. ALSO OF
   NOTE...AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SWD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
   THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SFC WINDS WILL BECOME NNWLY TO NELY AND
   INCREASE WHILE TEMPERATURES COOL...AND RH VALUES RISE TO ABOVE
   CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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