Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 241641
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1141 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012
   
   VALID 241700Z - 251200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN AND PARTS OF CNTRL
   NV...EXTREME NWRN AZ...A SMALL PART OF EXTREME ERN CA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN AZ...WRN AND CNTRL NM...A
   SMALL PART OF EXTREME SWRN TX...
   NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE MORNING FORECAST.  FIRST CRITICAL AREA
   CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NV WILL SEE STRENGTHENING WEST TO SOUTHWEST
   WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND HUMIDITY IN THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE BY
   MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. 
   
   MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME SMALL RELIEF FOR
   SOUTHWESTERN AZ WITH AN INFLUX OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ON SOUTHERLY
   FLOW AND HUMIDITY ACTUALLY ABOVE 30 PERCENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. 
   ALSO...SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST TO
   THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.
   
   OVERALL...FOR SECOND CRITICAL AREA CENTERED OVER EASTERN AZ/WRN
   NM...THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY ARE FORECAST
   FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF AZ EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
   NM...IN THE VICINITY OF THE LARGE ON-GOING WILDFIRE COMPLEX IN WEST
   CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.  WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
   HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED AND HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO
   10 TO 15 PERCENT WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S AND SOME LOW 90S.
   
   WESTERN AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL AZ WILL SEE SOME RELIEF LATE IN THE
   DAY IN THE FORM OF HIGHER HUMIDITY...HOWEVER...OVER EASTERN AZ AND
   CENTRAL/WESTERN NM...POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED.
   
   ..BOTHWELL.. 05/24/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0339 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE TROUGH IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL COVER THE WRN/CNTRL
   UNITED STATES. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EJECTED NEWD
   FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE WRN
   EXTENT OF THE LARGE TROUGH AMPLIFIES FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO CA AND
   OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN. A BELT OF STRONG FLOW IN THE
   MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL EXIST WITHIN THE BROAD BASE OF THE LARGE
   TROUGH.
   
   ...SRN AND PARTS OF CNTRL NV...EXTREME NWRN AZ...A SMALL PART OF
   EXTREME ERN CA...
   AS THE LARGE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER PARTS OF THE WRN STATES...STRONG
   MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERLAY THE REGION...AND SUPPORT SLY TO WLY
   WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   DEEPENS. AND...WITH AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS...RH VALUES ARE
   FORECAST TO FALL TO 10-14 PERCENT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS TEMPERATURES
   RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS NRN/CNTRL SECTIONS OF THE CRITICAL
   AREA TO THE 80S AND 90S ACROSS SRN SECTIONS. THE COMBINATION OF
   THESE FACTORS IS FORECAST TO YIELD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...ERN AZ...WRN AND CNTRL NM...A SMALL PART OF EXTREME SWRN TX...
   PERSISTENTLY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW TRAILING SWWD/WSWWD FROM THE
   AFOREMENTIONED EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SWLY WINDS OF
   20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH. A CONTINUED DRY AIR MASS WILL
   SUPPORT RH VALUES OF 8-14 PERCENT...WITH THE LOWEST OF THESE
   READINGS FROM SERN AZ INTO SWRN/CNTRL NM AND EXTREME SWRN TX.
   MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 70S ACROSS NRN
   PARTS OF THE CRITICAL AREA TO THE 80S AND 90S ACROSS SRN PARTS OF
   THE CRITICAL AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS IS FORECAST TO
   YIELD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...SURROUNDING THE TWO CRITICAL AREAS FROM PARTS OF SERN CA AND NRN
   NV TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   TO THE SW OF THE WRN CRITICAL AREA ACROSS PARTS OF SERN CA: DESPITE
   THE PRESENCE OF AREAS OF CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES...CRITICALLY
   STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY NOT OCCUR ON ANY MORE THAN A
   SPOTTY/BRIEF BASIS -- IN AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE AVAILABLE FOR THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE FIRES -- PROVIDED THE SPATIAL DISPLACEMENT OF
   THIS AREA FROM THE STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW DURING PEAK HEATING.
   
   TO THE N OF THE WRN CRITICAL AREA ACROSS NRN NV: RH VALUES ARE NOT
   CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FALL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON ANY MORE
   THAN A SPOTTY/BRIEF BASIS IN THE ABSENCE OF WARMER SFC TEMPERATURES.
   
   BETWEEN THE WRN AND ERN CRITICAL AREAS FROM PARTS OF WRN AZ INTO
   SWRN UT: AREAS OF STRONG WINDS COULD DEVELOP...THOUGH MOISTURE
   TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COULD KEEP RH VALUES FROM
   FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT ON ANY MORE THAN A SPOTTY/BRIEF BASIS IN
   MOST AREAS. WHILE CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES ARE RELATIVELY MORE
   LIKELY IN SOME AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE AZ-UT BORDER...THE
   ABSENCE OF STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW DURING PEAK HEATING IN THESE
   AREAS MAY MITIGATE THE STRONG-WIND THREAT. ACCORDINGLY...THE TWO
   CRITICAL AREAS ARE NOT BEING CONNECTED AT THIS TIME.
   
   TO THE EAST OF THE ERN CRITICAL AREA ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS: SFC
   WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY WEAKER...AS THIS REGION
   WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE STRONGER LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL FLOW.
   WITH ONLY MARGINALLY CRITICALLY STRONG WIND SPEEDS POSSIBLE...AND
   WITH AREAS OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
   WEEKS AND FUEL GREEN-UP...THE ERN CRITICAL AREA DOES NOT EXTEND
   FARTHER EAST AT THIS TIME.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 241933
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0233 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2012
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SERN CA...SRN NV...SRN
   UT...NRN AND ERN AZ...SWRN CO...WRN/CNTRL/SRN NM...SWRN TX...
   MODELS CONTINUE HIGHLIGHTING THE PREVIOUS CRITICAL AREA AS HAVING
   STRONG SWLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND VERY LOW
   HUMIDITY IN THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY
   BELOW 10 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS.  NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. 
   HAVE COORDINATED WITH A FEW OFFICES ABOUT THE FUELS FOR THE SEE TEXT
   AREA WHICH IS EASTERN NM AND PARTS OF TX PANHANDLE.  CONSENSUS IS
   THAT FUELS ARE GENERALLY STILL GREEN WITH ONLY SOME DRYING ON-GOING
   WITH CONTINUED DRY/GUSTY SWLY WINDS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
   
   SLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SWRN AZ WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY
   OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT NEGATING THE NEED FOR A CRITICAL AREA ACROSS
   SWRN AZ.
   
   ..BOTHWELL.. 05/24/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0341 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG TROUGH IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL DIG SWD OVER THE WRN
   STATES...WHILE AN EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW MOVES SSEWD ACROSS CA AND
   EVENTUALLY EWD INTO NV LATE IN THE PERIOD. A ZONE OF STRONG FLOW IN
   THE MID/UPPER LEVELS ACCOMPANYING THIS TROUGH WILL COVER PARTS OF
   THE WRN STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...A SFC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
   CNTRL GREAT BASIN. ELSEWHERE...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH...WHICH HAD EARLIER EJECTED FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
   STRONG TROUGH...WILL SHIFT ENEWD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
   INTO SRN CANADA...WITH RIDGING FORECAST TO OCCUR BETWEEN THE TWO
   TROUGHS.
   
   ...FAR SERN CA...SRN NV...SRN UT...NRN AND ERN AZ...SWRN
   CO...WRN/CNTRL/SRN NM...SWRN TX...
   THE COMBINATION OF THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   THE STRENGTHENING GREAT BASIN SFC LOW AND THE ZONE OF STRONG
   MID-LEVEL FLOW OVERLAYING THE REGION WILL SUPPORT SSWLY TO SWLY
   WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING 40-50 MPH. RH VALUES ARE
   FORECAST TO FALL TO 6-14 PERCENT...AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S
   AND 80S ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF THE CRITICAL AREA...AND INTO
   THE 90S ACROSS SRN PARTS OF THE CRITICAL AREA. THE LOWEST OF THE RH
   VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SRN NM AND SWRN TX. THE
   COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT. ALSO OF NOTE...ANY SINGLE-DIGIT RH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY
   FORECAST TO ALIGN WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH /I.E.
   BELOW EXTREMELY CRITICAL WIND SPEED THRESHOLDS/ AND MAINLY OCCUR
   ACROSS THE SERN PART OF THE CRITICAL AREA...WHICH WILL BE REMOVED
   FROM THE COMPARATIVELY STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.
   
   ...SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL AREA FROM PARTS OF SERN CA/LOWER CO
   RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   TO THE SW OF THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS PARTS OF SERN CA INTO THE
   LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND SWRN AZ: AREAS OF STRONG WINDS COULD
   DEVELOP...THOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA MAY
   PREVENT RH VALUES FROM FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT ON ANY MORE THAN A
   SPOTTY/BRIEF BASIS. ACCORDINGLY...THIS AREA IS NOT INCLUDED IN
   CRITICAL DESIGNATION AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY BE
   INCLUDED IF RH VALUES TREND LOWER IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.
   
   TO THE N OF THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL UT AND
   NWRN/CNTRL CO: DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF STRONG WINDS...RH
   VALUES ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FALL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
   ON ANY MORE THAN A SPOTTY/BRIEF BASIS IN THE ABSENCE OF WARMER SFC
   TEMPERATURES.
   
   TO THE EAST OF THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS:
   CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO THE WEST OF A
   N-S-ORIENTED DRYLINE AND TO THE SOUTH OF A NWD-ADVANCING SFC FRONT.
   COINCIDING WITH THESE RH VALUES...CRITICALLY STRONG WIND SPEEDS WILL
   BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE EXISTENCE OF AREAS OF ABOVE-NORMAL
   PRECIPITATION DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS AND AREAS OF FUEL
   GREEN-UP MAY MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. ACCORDINGLY...THE ERN
   BOUND OF THE CRITICAL AREA DOES NOT EXTEND FARTHER TO THE EAST AT
   THIS TIME.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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