Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Thu May 24 08:43:03 UTC 2012
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD1)
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 240841
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SERN CA...SRN NV...SRN
UT...NRN AND ERN AZ...SWRN CO...WRN/CNTRL/SRN NM...SWRN TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG TROUGH IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL DIG SWD OVER THE WRN
STATES...WHILE AN EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW MOVES SSEWD ACROSS CA AND
EVENTUALLY EWD INTO NV LATE IN THE PERIOD. A ZONE OF STRONG FLOW IN
THE MID/UPPER LEVELS ACCOMPANYING THIS TROUGH WILL COVER PARTS OF
THE WRN STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...A SFC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
CNTRL GREAT BASIN. ELSEWHERE...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WHICH HAD EARLIER EJECTED FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
STRONG TROUGH...WILL SHIFT ENEWD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO SRN CANADA...WITH RIDGING FORECAST TO OCCUR BETWEEN THE TWO
TROUGHS.
...FAR SERN CA...SRN NV...SRN UT...NRN AND ERN AZ...SWRN
CO...WRN/CNTRL/SRN NM...SWRN TX...
THE COMBINATION OF THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE STRENGTHENING GREAT BASIN SFC LOW AND THE ZONE OF STRONG
MID-LEVEL FLOW OVERLAYING THE REGION WILL SUPPORT SSWLY TO SWLY
WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING 40-50 MPH. RH VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO FALL TO 6-14 PERCENT...AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S
AND 80S ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF THE CRITICAL AREA...AND INTO
THE 90S ACROSS SRN PARTS OF THE CRITICAL AREA. THE LOWEST OF THE RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SRN NM AND SWRN TX. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THREAT. ALSO OF NOTE...ANY SINGLE-DIGIT RH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO ALIGN WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH /I.E.
BELOW EXTREMELY CRITICAL WIND SPEED THRESHOLDS/ AND MAINLY OCCUR
ACROSS THE SERN PART OF THE CRITICAL AREA...WHICH WILL BE REMOVED
FROM THE COMPARATIVELY STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.
...SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL AREA FROM PARTS OF SERN CA/LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
TO THE SW OF THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS PARTS OF SERN CA INTO THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND SWRN AZ: AREAS OF STRONG WINDS COULD
DEVELOP...THOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA MAY
PREVENT RH VALUES FROM FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT ON ANY MORE THAN A
SPOTTY/BRIEF BASIS. ACCORDINGLY...THIS AREA IS NOT INCLUDED IN
CRITICAL DESIGNATION AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY BE
INCLUDED IF RH VALUES TREND LOWER IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.
TO THE N OF THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL UT AND
NWRN/CNTRL CO: DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF STRONG WINDS...RH
VALUES ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FALL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
ON ANY MORE THAN A SPOTTY/BRIEF BASIS IN THE ABSENCE OF WARMER SFC
TEMPERATURES.
TO THE EAST OF THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS:
CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO THE WEST OF A
N-S-ORIENTED DRYLINE AND TO THE SOUTH OF A NWD-ADVANCING SFC FRONT.
COINCIDING WITH THESE RH VALUES...CRITICALLY STRONG WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE EXISTENCE OF AREAS OF ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS AND AREAS OF FUEL
GREEN-UP MAY MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. ACCORDINGLY...THE ERN
BOUND OF THE CRITICAL AREA DOES NOT EXTEND FARTHER TO THE EAST AT
THIS TIME.
..COHEN.. 05/24/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...