Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Thu May 24 08:43:03 UTC 2012

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD1)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 240841
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0341 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SERN CA...SRN NV...SRN
   UT...NRN AND ERN AZ...SWRN CO...WRN/CNTRL/SRN NM...SWRN TX...
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG TROUGH IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL DIG SWD OVER THE WRN
   STATES...WHILE AN EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW MOVES SSEWD ACROSS CA AND
   EVENTUALLY EWD INTO NV LATE IN THE PERIOD. A ZONE OF STRONG FLOW IN
   THE MID/UPPER LEVELS ACCOMPANYING THIS TROUGH WILL COVER PARTS OF
   THE WRN STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...A SFC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
   CNTRL GREAT BASIN. ELSEWHERE...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH...WHICH HAD EARLIER EJECTED FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
   STRONG TROUGH...WILL SHIFT ENEWD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
   INTO SRN CANADA...WITH RIDGING FORECAST TO OCCUR BETWEEN THE TWO
   TROUGHS.
   
   ...FAR SERN CA...SRN NV...SRN UT...NRN AND ERN AZ...SWRN
   CO...WRN/CNTRL/SRN NM...SWRN TX...
   THE COMBINATION OF THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   THE STRENGTHENING GREAT BASIN SFC LOW AND THE ZONE OF STRONG
   MID-LEVEL FLOW OVERLAYING THE REGION WILL SUPPORT SSWLY TO SWLY
   WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING 40-50 MPH. RH VALUES ARE
   FORECAST TO FALL TO 6-14 PERCENT...AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S
   AND 80S ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF THE CRITICAL AREA...AND INTO
   THE 90S ACROSS SRN PARTS OF THE CRITICAL AREA. THE LOWEST OF THE RH
   VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SRN NM AND SWRN TX. THE
   COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT. ALSO OF NOTE...ANY SINGLE-DIGIT RH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY
   FORECAST TO ALIGN WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH /I.E.
   BELOW EXTREMELY CRITICAL WIND SPEED THRESHOLDS/ AND MAINLY OCCUR
   ACROSS THE SERN PART OF THE CRITICAL AREA...WHICH WILL BE REMOVED
   FROM THE COMPARATIVELY STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.
   
   ...SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL AREA FROM PARTS OF SERN CA/LOWER CO
   RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   TO THE SW OF THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS PARTS OF SERN CA INTO THE
   LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND SWRN AZ: AREAS OF STRONG WINDS COULD
   DEVELOP...THOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA MAY
   PREVENT RH VALUES FROM FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT ON ANY MORE THAN A
   SPOTTY/BRIEF BASIS. ACCORDINGLY...THIS AREA IS NOT INCLUDED IN
   CRITICAL DESIGNATION AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY BE
   INCLUDED IF RH VALUES TREND LOWER IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.
   
   TO THE N OF THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL UT AND
   NWRN/CNTRL CO: DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF STRONG WINDS...RH
   VALUES ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FALL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
   ON ANY MORE THAN A SPOTTY/BRIEF BASIS IN THE ABSENCE OF WARMER SFC
   TEMPERATURES.
   
   TO THE EAST OF THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS:
   CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO THE WEST OF A
   N-S-ORIENTED DRYLINE AND TO THE SOUTH OF A NWD-ADVANCING SFC FRONT.
   COINCIDING WITH THESE RH VALUES...CRITICALLY STRONG WIND SPEEDS WILL
   BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE EXISTENCE OF AREAS OF ABOVE-NORMAL
   PRECIPITATION DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS AND AREAS OF FUEL
   GREEN-UP MAY MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. ACCORDINGLY...THE ERN
   BOUND OF THE CRITICAL AREA DOES NOT EXTEND FARTHER TO THE EAST AT
   THIS TIME.
   
   ..COHEN.. 05/24/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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