Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Sat May 26 16:47:03 UTC 2012

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 261645
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1145 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012
   
   VALID 261700Z - 271200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR W-CNTRL AND NWRN NM...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN AZ...SERN UT...WRN/S-CNTRL
   CO...WRN/CNTRL NM...
   FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES NEEDED.
   
   ..SMITH.. 05/26/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0235 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT FROM THE WRN GREAT BASIN EWD
   TOWARDS THE ROCKY MTNS...WITH AN ATTENDANT BELT OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER
   FLOW OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.
   AT THE SFC...A CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND
   SHIFT NEWD LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHILE AN ATTENDANT LEE
   TROUGH/DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. FARTHER W...A
   PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. OVER THE
   SERN ATLANTIC COAST...SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
   THE COAST OF ERN FL/GA.
   
   ...W-CNTRL AND NWRN NM...
   INCREASING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS...ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
   GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE OVER CO...WILL
   SUPPORT A RAPID INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BY MID-MORNING AS
   STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OCCURS. FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE IS
   CONSISTENT IN INDICATING SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 30-40 MPH /GUSTS
   TO 55 MPH/ ARE LIKELY TODAY THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF W-CNTRL
   NM INTO PORTIONS OF THE CO PLATEAU REGION IN NWRN NM. 
   
   OVERNIGHT SFC OBS SHOW POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY ONGOING /RANGING
   FROM 10-20 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS/...AND AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP
   TO AS HIGH AS THE LOWER 90S OVER THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS...SINGLE
   DIGITS RH VALUES ARE PROBABLE. RADAR-DERIVED PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES
   INDICATE ONLY LIGHT/SPOTTY PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN RECEIVED ACROSS
   THIS AREA...AND THIS...COMBINED WITH ONGOING MODERATE-SEVERE DROUGHT
   AND A MORE RECENTLY OBSERVED EXTENDED PERIOD OF WINDY/DRY
   CONDITIONS...WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD.
   A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT COULD PERSIST FOR A FEW HRS BEYOND
   SUNSET AS WIND SPEEDS REMAIN AOA 20 MPH. FURTHER DRYING IS
   ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING
   THROUGH THE AREA LATE SAT / EARLY SUN RESULTING IN POOR OVERNIGHT RH
   RECOVERY...BUT POST-FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER.
   
   ...SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL RISK AREA -- ERN AZ...SERN
   UT...WRN/S-CNTRL CO...WRN/CNTRL NM...
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
   OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
   AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH. THE STRONGEST LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
   IS EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED FROM E-CNTRL AZ NEWD INTO N-CNTRL
   CO...SUPPORTING SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 30-50 MPH. THE PRIMARY
   FACTOR MITIGATING AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL RISK ACROSS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
   BETTER QUALITY MOISTURE /I.E. PWAT VALUES NEAR 0.4 INCH OVER SERN
   UT/ERN AZ/ AND/OR COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO PORTIONS
   OF W-CNTRL/NWRN NM...WITH MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   AOA 10 PERCENT. HOWEVER...HIGH-END CRITICAL TO LOCALLY EXTREMELY
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR PROBABLE. POOR OVERNIGHT RH
   RECOVERY IS ALSO ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES
   THROUGH THE REGION.
   
   ...SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   VERY STRONG WINDS /I.E. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS 30-40 MPH/ ARE
   FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER ERN CO/WRN KS AND PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK
   PANHANDLES AS A SFC CYCLONE RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER NERN CO. A DRYLINE
   ATTENDANT TO THE CYCLONE WILL PROTRUDE SWD INTO W TX...WITH DRY
   BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS AND STRONG HEATING W OF THE DRYLINE
   YIELDING RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS N TO LOWER TEENS
   S. WHILE THESE CONDITIONS WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT A HIGH-END CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT...ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN RECEIVED
   ACROSS THIS AREA IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS...MITIGATING THE FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT AND PRECLUDING A CRITICAL RISK UPGRADE ATTM.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF N FL...FL PANHANDLE...AND INTERIOR S-SERN GA...
   A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO SUBTROPICAL STORM
   BERYL WILL RESULT IN A MODEST STRENGTHENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
   FROM SRN GA INTO THE FL PANHANDLE/N FL...WHERE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
   OF 8-12 MPH ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
   90S COULD YIELD RH VALUES APPROACHING 30 PERCENT IN SOME
   LOCATIONS...SUPPORTING AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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